The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
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The Field
This is a full-field event with 156 golfers, and also the first of two pro-am events featured in the early part of the season. Each pro will be paired with an amateur for the first three rounds of this event, and the cut will be placed after 54 holes this week with only the top 65 and ties playing the final round on Sunday.
Three courses will be in play, with TPC Stadium (the host course) hosting the final round. The venues in play are some of the easiest on the PGA TOUR, and this event almost always ends up being an outright sprint — with the winner often coming in at 25 under or better.
The field for this year’s event is solid from a strength perspective once again. There are eight top-25 players from the OWGR in the field, including world Number two Xander Schauffele. World numbers seven and 12, Wyndham Clark and Patrick Cantlay are also playing. Past winners of the American Express in the field this week include Si Woo Kim, Adam Long, and Nick Dunlap. Some other big names that are teeing it up this week include Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, and last week’s winner Nick Taylor.
The Courses
PGA West—Palm Springs, California
TPC Stadium (home course, played twice) 7,113 yards, par 72
La Quinta Country Club: 7,060 yards, par 72
Nicklaus Tournament 7,159 yards, par 72
The tournament this week will again be played on a three-course rotation. The 54-hole cut means that every player in the field will get a shot at playing all three courses once before the cut moves the remaining players in the event over to the Stadium Course for the final round.
Both La Quinta and the Nicklaus Tournament venue play as very short par 72s and pop up as some of the easiest to score on every season. The rough at both courses is non-penal and there’s little in the way of dangerous hazards. For showdown purposes, understanding where your player will be teeing off for each round will be crucial this week. Given that the Nicklaus Course still plays slightly tougher (and features slightly more bunkers and dangerous approaches) you should be giving heavier weight to anyone playing La Quinta — with the Stadium being the worst draw for your player. All of these courses offer up chances for your player to go low, however, and TPC Stadium has gotten easier from an average scoring perspective over the past few seasons.
The Stadium course can stretch to 7,300 yards, although generally, it will set up at around 7,000-7,150 yards for the week — making distance less of a factor. Players can still be aggressive as the rough is kept low, but the site lines and setup on this Dye design mean there will be lots of places where the play off the tee will be less than the driver. The most popular range on approach tends to be from 150-175 yards, which again speaks to the fact that laying back off the tee will be necessary on at least some of the par 4s.
The course also shares a lot of similarities with its more famous sister venue — TPC Sawgrass down in Florida. Water comes into play on seven holes and the 17th is a near replica of the famous par 3 island green 17th at Sawgrass. There’s a ton of sand here, too, with over 90 bunkers. Despite smaller greens and lots of bunkers, scrambling rates at TPC Stadium are higher than the PGA TOUR average, and around-the-green play (while always important) hasn’t been a huge factor for most of the past winners.
That could change this year, however, with new greens having been installed at the Stadium. They actually enlraged the green surfaces a touch but the overall firmness and fact they can now hide pins better will likely make this a tougher test. It’s not a huge change but scrambling could be a bigger factor in 2025 than in years past.
One final note on putting: the easier setup generally means players will be closer to the hole here on approach than at tougher courses. There’s often a spike in birdie opportunities from 20 feet and in (compared to other PGA TOUR venues), so looking at players with solid make rates from that distance is something else to consider this week.
2025 Weather: Weather is rarely an issue at this event as it’s played in the desert where only a little cool weather tends to disrupt proceedings. This year is no different. Highs in the morning will be in the mid-50s but there is little to no wind and afternoon highs will be in the 70F range on all four days. The greens should be more receptive in the morning and with dead wind and warm enough temperatures, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a few players go low early in the day on the opening couple of rounds. With the Stadium Course having new greens, it’s possible the course plays a little firmer on the weekend, and scoring on Sunday stays higher this season. Still, these courses always yielded a ton of birdies and with no wind and sunny skies, I don’t see any reason why the winner won’t reach 25 under par or better again this year.
Last 5 winners
2024–Nick Dunlap -29 (over Christiaan Bezuidenhout -28)
2023—Jon Rahm -27 (over Davis Thompson -26)
2022—Hudson Swafford -23 (over Tom Hoge -21)
2021—Si Woo Kim -23 (over Patrick Cantlay -22)
2020—Andrew Landry -25 (over Abraham Ancer -24)
Winning Trends
– 13 of the past 15 winners of this event played in one of the two season-opening events in Hawaii in the year of their respective wins — the exception was Bill Haas in 2015 and Nick Dunlap in 2024.
– Of the past 12 winners, seven played in the Sony Open the week before and five of the seven made the cut there, finishing T28/T25/9th/13th/31st (Adam Long and Andrew Landry missed the cut at the Sony in 2019 and 2020, respectively, before winning the Amex).
– 10 of the past 12 winners had played in this event at least once before their win — the exception was Adam Long in 2019 and Nick Dunlap in 2024.
Winners’ Stats and Course Highlights
Nick Dunlap (2024 winner at 29-under-par)
2024 lead-in form (MC-MC-MC-MC)
- Three of the last five winners here (Adam Long and Andrew Landry) had almost zero lead-in form, with Landry coming in off five straight missed cuts to win in 2020 (he was 500-1 pre-event).
- Last year’s winner, Nick Dunlap had missed four straight cuts in a row on the PGA TOUR and was still an amateur at the time of his win.
- Si Woo Kim had posted a nice T25 in Hawaii (with positive strokes gained approach numbers) before arriving here and grabbing a win in 2021; in 2022, Hudson Swafford put in a mediocre T48 in Hawaii before blowing the doors off with a big week.
- The stats from past seasons only include two rounds at a measured course (Stadium), but we can see that Strokes Gained: Approach rates out as vitally important. That’s where Jon Rahm gained the biggest edge in 2023. Rahm lost strokes putting on TPC Stadium but was so good putting on the other courses that it didn’t matter.
- Rahm gained strokes off the tee in 2023 but other winners have overcome far worse OTT stats and managed to prevail.
- Ultimately, the venues this week correlate strongest with SG: Approach, Putting, and Around the Green play. SG: ATG may come more into play with the firmer greens at the Stadium Course but this still ultimately a putting contest where the winner will need to be aggressive with their irons and sink an ungodly number of short to medium range putts.
Finding Values
This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
JJ Spaun +4000 and $8,600
Comparable:
Harry Hall +4000 and $8,800
Davis Thompson +4500 and $8,900
Max Greyserman +4000 and $9,200
Nicholas Echavarria +5500 and $7,900
Comparable:
Patrick Fishburn +5500 and $8,100
Eric Cole +5500 and $8,300
Will Zalatoris +5500 and $8,400
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
1. Adam Hadwin ($7,700; best finishes: T2-2019, T3-2018, T2-2017): Hadwin has turned into a bit of a final boss for this event. He is a perfect 9-for-9 in made cuts for his career and finished T6 at this venue in 2024. With a Canadian winning last week, he should be motivated to grab his second win at TPC Stadium. His price is $600 than it was last season
2. Patrick Cantlay ($9,600; best finishes: 2nd-2021, T9-2019 + 2022): Cantlay is fourth in strokes gained total stats at this event since 2019. He’s developed great synergy with some of the Pete Dye venues on the PGA TOUR, and this venue has perhaps become one of his favorites. He shot a record-breaking 61 on the Stadium venue in 2021 and has finished top 10 in three of his last five American Express starts. He’s a deserving lead horse this week. His price is a whopping $1,200 cheaper than it was last season.
3. Sungjae Im ($10,300; best finishes: T11 – 2022, T10 – 2020): Im has been very consistent at this event, paying off DFS lineups with top-20 finishes in five of his six career starts at TPC Stadium. While he’s never been able to sink enough putts to grab a win or top five, you should expect a good week from the South Korean after he started strong with a T3 in Maui.
4. Si Woo Kim ($9,100; best finishes: win-2021, T11 -2022): Kim held off Cantlay in dramatic style to win this event in 2021. The South Korean also has a fantastic record at Pete Dye venues, with a win at TPC Sawgrass being the pinnacle of his career to date. Kim’s missed the cut last week in Hawaii, but expect form from him this week.
5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,600; best finish: 2nd-2024, T11-2023): Bezuidenhout has done well at this event in each of the past two seasons. The South African made a late charge last season on Sunday but came up a stroke short with Nick Dunlap saving par on the final hole. He had to pull out of the Sony Open with illness but looks ready to go for this week.
Recent Form
1. Nicolas Echavarria ($7,900, Recent finishes: 2-T32-T2): Echavarria lost in a playoff last week to Nick Taylor. The runner-up finish was his second over his last three starts. Overall, the Columbian and two-time PGA winner is playing some very inspired golf right now.
2. Harry Hall ($8,800, Recent finishes: T11-T8): Hall has been in great form since his win in Kentucky last summer. The Englishman has now posted four straight top 15 finishes and is gaining multiple strokes with his putter neary every week.
3. Patrick Fishburn ($8,100, Recent finishes: T6-T8): Fishburn had another strong start last week in Hawaii. The American has also posted top-12 finishes in three straight events and gained 4.6 strokes ATG and 5.0 strokes putting last week at Waialae.
4. Lee Hodges ($7,500, Recent finishes: T5-T10): Hodges has been in a nice groove of late with his putter. He gained 6.0 strokes on the greens last week and has posted top 10 finishes now in each of his last two starts.
5. Eric Cole ($8,300, Recent finishes: T5-T52-T15): Cole blew another great chance to get his first win when he went off in the final group last Sunday. The American still played great most of the week at the Sony and continues to gain big with his irons (+5.2 strokes APP last week).
DFS Strategy
Cash Games: Im and Cantlay a good starter pack
SungJae Im ($10,300) had a nice start to the season on Hawaii with a third-place finish where he gained strokes across the board. He’s finished top 20 at this event in four of the last five seasons and offers far more flexibility than Xander Schauffele ($11,300), who is the deserving favorite but also hard to justify for cost purposes in such a wide-open event. Using Im and Patrick Cantlay ($9,600), another player with a great record at TPC Stadium allows you a solid $7,500 average remaining salary on your next four golfers. Names like Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,600), Bud Cauley ($7,300) and Doug Ghim ($7,300) are potential names to target underneath them.
Tournaments: Zalatoris could surprise
Zalatoris could be in for a nice start to the regular season. He landed two rounds of eight-under-par or better at the Sentry but struggled on Sunday thanks to a wrong ball penalty. Still, carding two rounds of eight under par is a nice way to kick things off and he’ll likely look to keep that momentum rolling this week at TPC Stadium where he finished T6 back in 2022. Cam Davis crashed and burned last week but he is another player who could bounce back fast. He’s a great birdie maker and has a top-five finish at this venue from his rookie year on TOUR. Other names to potentially think about for GPPs this week include Matti Schmid ($6,900 – see below), KH Lee ($6,200), Wes Bryan ($6,600), Brian Campbell ($6,600) and Alejandro Tosti ($6,400).
My Pick: Tom Kim ($9,300)
I like the idea of buying the dip we’re getting on Tom Kim this week. He was a lot of people’s favorite to take down the Sony last week, but suffered to a T65 finish. It’s not the greatest lead-in, but having not played the week before in Maui, Kim can be excused a bit for struggling in the windy and dry conditions at Waialae.
This week should provide the perfect setup for him to perform. Already a two-time winner in the desert at TPC Summerlin (Shriners) this more well-manicured Stadium environment has worked for him in the past not only in Vegas at the Shriners but also last season at the Travelers where he finished 2nd to Scottie Scheffler at TPC River Highlands. Kim hasn’t had a top 10 on the PGA since that playoff loss but he did finish T2 at the Hero World Challenge in December and at the Genesis Championship in Korea in November.
Over the last 24 rounds, he’s still sixth in opportunities gained and looks like solid value at just $9,300, even with a few more big names returning to action this week. He should have less ownership in GPPs (making him a good pivot option) and at +3000 on DraftKings Sportsbook has far bigger outright odds than he did last week.
My Sleeper: Matti Schmid ($6,900)
Much like Kim, I also think this is a good spot to buy low on talented German Matti Schmid. We’ve seen Schmid come close at numerous of these lower-scoring events in the past, with the 27-year-old posting two top-five finishes on the PGA this season at Black Desert and the Shriners. The T5 at TPC Summerlin is a nice sign, given its correlation to the venues this week and Schmid has already proven himself to be adept at handling this format and venue having posted a T6 at TPC Stadium back in 2023.
A supreme birdie-maker who ranks 7th in BoB% and 4th in Eagles over the last 24 rounds, he’s in a good spot to rebound this week after a poor start to the season at the Sony where he missed the cut. He’s very much boom or bust for DFS but should be quite low-owned in large fields, and for betting, he carries enormous placing odds (+1200; Top 10 and +500; Top 20) which makes him a solid betting target on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
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