The final game of Sunday’s NFL Wild Card slate will be between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Commanders.
The Buccaneers won the NFC South for the fourth consecutive season with a 10-7 record. Baker Mayfield’s career resurgence has been real down in Tampa Bay and he finished the season ranked third in the NFL in passing yards and tied with Lamar Jackson for the second-most passing touchdowns. The Bucs have a pass-driven offense that finished the season ranked fourth in points and third in total yards gained. These two teams faced off in the opening week of the season with the Buccaneers producing a 37-20 victory.
Washington should view making the playoffs as a massive success already, but it is also not a team that should be taken lightly. The Commanders finished the season with a 12-5 record and entered the playoffs through the Wild Card as the Eagles won the NFC East. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been a revolution for the organization and brought the team to a win-now focus far sooner than expected. Washington finished the season ranked fifth in scoring and seventh in total yards gained. Both these teams enter the matchup with high-powered offenses and some defensive concerns.
The Buccaneers enter this game as three-point favorites and -162 on the Moneyline. The Commanders are +136 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 51.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Wild Card weekend matchup.
Jayden Daniels Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
There were high hopes for Jayden Daniels when the Commanders selected him with the second overall pick in this past draft. But the former Heisman winner has exceeded expectations in his rookie season in a major way. While his arm has been impressive in itself, Daniels’ dual-threat ability is what makes him so special.
On the season overall, Daniels is averaging 52.4 rushing yards per game. However, he battled a rib injury midseason, which decreased his willingness as a rusher and distorted this average a bit. The LSU product has rushed for over 53.5 rushing yards six times this season, including as many as 127 rushing yards in a game. He recorded 60+ rushing yards across his final three full games. Daniels also rushed for 88 yards in the opening week matchup with this Buccaneers team.
This will be Daniels’ first NFL playoff game, but no moment has looked too big for him yet this season. Tampa Bay has struggled defensively this season, ranking 16th in points allowed and 18th in yards given up. Expect the Buccaneers to dial up the blitz to attempt to rattle the rookie quarterback and for Daniels to counter this with his legs. This was what led to the 127-yard rushing output against Atlanta in Week 17. Expect similar results in this one and for Daniels’ legs to be what he leans on as he settles into the increased intensity of NFL playoff football.
Baker Mayfield Over 252.5 Passing Yards (-110)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can only go as far as Baker Mayfield’s arm will take them. The former No. 1 overall pick approaches the game with a gun-slinging mentality and has the arm talent to make any throw on the field. He threw for 4,500 yards this season, the third-most in the NFL, which comes out to 264.7 passing yards per game.
Looking at Washington’s defense, it ranks 18th in points allowed and 13th in yards conceded. Mayfield carved up the defense for 289 passing yards and four touchdowns in the first matchup. Overall, the Oklahoma product has thrown for over 252.5 passing yards in 10 of the 17 games he has played this season.
While Washington is weaker against the run than the pass, expect Tampa Bay to continue leaning on what got it there. Mayfield is what makes this team go and he also threw for 337 and 349 passing yards in his two playoff games last season. He has taken his production to new heights in his second season with the Buccaneers, so expect this to carry over to the postseason. The 252.5 passing yard is too low based on how he has produced all season, so look for Mayfield to eclipse this in the playoff matchup tonight.
Jalen McMillan Anytime TD (+160)
Mike Evans will headline the wide receiver production for the Buccaneers, but he will also be matched up with Commanders CB Marshon Lattimore in this game. The two have had plenty of duels throughout their careers and expect Lattimore to shadow Evans across the field. While both will surely have their wins throughout the game, expect this to lead to Jalen McMillan being more involved in this game.
The rookie wide receiver has been a nice surprise this season and has made the most of his increased opportunities following the injury to Chris Godwin. On the season overall, McMillan tallied 37 receptions for 461 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He was especially impressive down the stretch this season. Over the final five weeks, he tallied 24 receptions for 316 yards and seven touchdowns. His lone other touchdown on the season was in the opening week matchup against the Commanders.
The trust gained by Mayfield in McMillan over the final weeks of the season is notable and his production will be necessary in this game. During the Week 18 must-win matchup against the Saints, McMillan made a key play on a fourth-and-seven deep ball and finished the drive off with a touchdown shortly after. Expect him to be called on plenty in this matchup and find the end zone for the sixth straight week.
Baker Mayfield & Jayden Daniels to Combine for 550+ Passing Yards (+240)
When you think of playoff football, you expect smashmouth defense where yards are difficult to come by. Don’t expect this to fully be the case in this matchup as both teams enter with an offensive identity and some defensive concerns.
Looking just at their DraftKings passing lines, Mayfield’s over/under is set at 252.5 while Daniels’ is placed at 239.5. Mayfield is averaging 264.7 passing yards per game and has thrown for as many as 370 yards in a matchup this season. Daniels is averaging 209.9 passing yards per game but has thrown for as many as 326 passing yards in a game. During the opening week matchup between these two teams, the two quarterbacks combined for 473 passing yards, and the playbook has been opened up much more to Daniels since his 184-yard passing performance in that matchup.
Expect the offenses to open up in this game and for both teams to have some success. Count on Mayfield to lead the charge in reaching this total but for Daniels to make his impact felt throughout as well. This can be found in the player specials section on DraftKings Sportsbook. This matchup holds the highest over/under of all the Wild Card matchups as an indicator of the expected scoring, so expect both quarterbacks to be the driving force to reaching this.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
