Rookie quarterback Bo Nix and the Broncos have a tall task ahead of them when traveling into Buffalo to take on Josh Allen and the Bills as part of NFL Wild Card Weekend. Buffalo is favored by 8.5 points on the spread and the game total is set at O/U 47.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. A football game in Buffalo in January usually means snow and bitter weather but the gameday forecast predicts partly sunny skies and a temperature of 30 degrees by kickoff.
If you’re here, that means you’re interested in first touchdown scorer prop bets. Please read below for my favorite choice for Broncos vs. Bills at 1:00 pm. ET.
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
Keon Coleman First TD Scorer (+1500)
It is risky business choosing a rookie wideout to score the first touchdown against the best secondary in the league. I’m expecting Patrick Surtain II to cover Amari Cooper for the majority of the game, leaving Riley Moss on Coleman. Moss is the clear weakness in Denver’s secondary, posting a 22.9 target EPA, per Next Gen Stats, which ranks seventh-worst among defensive backs with at least 300 coverage snaps. He also ranks sixth-worst with a completion percentage over expected (CPOE) of 9.4%.
In five games with Cooper on the field this season, Coleman garnered at least seven targets in three games and scored in two. He also leads all Bills’ pass catchers with 11 red zone targets and eight end zone targets. Considering he also stands at 6’4″, he has a size advantage over both Moss (6’1″) and Surtain II (6’2″). Cooper’s presence on the field allows Bills OC Joe Brady to scheme more plays and opportunities for Coleman, and I think the Bills will get him involved early in the screen game and across the middle of the field in his first-ever taste of the NFL postseason.
