Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 8:00pm ET)
While the splits on the spread have been pretty even, bettors are looking to Jaylen Daniels and the Commanders to get the road win here. Roughly 75% of the handle on the moneyline has been on Washington throughout the week, and I think the public is sleeping on a good Bucs squad here at home. And as of Sunday morning, Tampa is starting to take a bit of sharper money.
While Washington gets all the love for its fifth-ranked offense (28.5 PPG), the Bucs actually ranked fourth in the NFL (29.5 PPG). Sure, Baker Mayfield is capable of making mistakes, but he should also make some big plays in this game. Washington’s defense ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in points allowed on the road, and while the pass defense was solid, it has by far the worst run defense of the playoff teams.
The Commanders ranked 30th in the NFL in rushing yards per game allowed, and got worse as the season progressed, giving up more than 160 per game over their last three. Bucky Irving will be a key to this game, as Tampa’s ability to run the ball should help open everything up. And if the Bucs can play with the lead at home, the rushing attack should be able to take them home. I’m not confident in Washington’s ability to stop the run late.
The Play: Buccaneers -3 (-110) – 1-unit
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