The Bills host the Broncos in Buffalo on Sunday of NFL Wild Card Weekend. Here are some Josh Allen prop bets to consider at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Josh Allen Prop Bets
Here are Allen’s current prop bet odds at DraftKings Sportsbook: o/u 231.5 passing yards, o/u 1.5 passing touchdowns and o/u 42.5 rushing yards. Allen is -125 to score a touchdown, +450 to score 2+ touchdowns and +550 to score the first touchdown of the game.
Josh Allen is the -450 favorite to win the NFL MVP at DraftKings Sportsbook. However, he has his sights set on a bigger prize after some disappointing postseason exits the past few years. It starts with a home game against rookie QB Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos. Allen has played really well in the postseason throughout his career despite losing to Patrick Mahomes multiple times. Allen and the Bills are sizeable favorites in this game and should be able to get the win if they just play smart. Against a rookie quarterback making his first career playoff start in a hostile environment, Allen just needs to avoid mistakes and the Bills should win.
The Broncos have had one of the best defenses in the league all season. They rank first in defensive EPA/play, first in defensive EPA/dropback and fourth in defensive EPA/rush. There has been a very minor decline in the second half of the season, ranking third in defensive EPA/play and fifth in defensive EPA/dropback since Week 10. However, this is one of the best top-to-bottom defenses in the league without question. That being said, Buffalo has had the best offense in the league during the second half of the season. Since Week 10, Buffalo ranks first in offensive EPA/play and is top three in offensive EPA/rush and EPA/dropback.
Allen is always at his most dangerous when using his legs. He finished second in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks this season, behind only Jalen Hurts. Allen uses his legs when necessary but is also smart about not taking too many bad hits. However, in the postseason, that goes out the window. Throughout his career, Allen has put his body on the line in big games and trusted his legs. Allen had 50 or more rushing yards four times this season and those games were against Houston, Kansas City, Detroit and the Rams, all playoff teams.
My favorite prop bet for this game is for Allen to go over 42.5 rushing yards. Allen has demonstrated that he will use his legs against elite competition when the team really requires it in order to win. In 10 career playoff games, Allen has cleared this number seven times. The Broncos have a great secondary and instead of forcing dangerous throws in a game where his team is favored to win, he should just pick up chunks on the ground and clear this number.
Pick: Josh Allen o42.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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