The No. 5 Chargers head into Houston to take on the No. 4 Texans in the NFL’s first game of Wild Card Weekend. Houston is a three-point underdog at home and the game total is set at O/U 42.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
We are focused on first touchdown scorer prop bets. There are some intriguing options available with both starting running backs––Joe Mixon (+450) and J.K. Dobbins (+600)––leading the way in terms of odds but I am honed in on another player. See below for my favorite choice for the first touchdown scorer for Texans vs. Chargers.
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
Ladd McConkey First TD Scorer (+800)
It’s hard to trust a rookie in his first playoff game but I can’t ignore the chemistry that has been built between McConkey and Justin Herbert in the back half of the season. McConkey has hauled in seven touchdowns with three of them coming within the last four weeks of the season. Since Week 11, he has averaged 8.3 targets and 93.8 yards per game. McConkey has also averaged 4.5 first-half targets in that span, so Herbert should continue the trend and get him going early.
Houston’s run defense ranks sixth in rush EPA, so I doubt that Dobbins feasts on the ground. Luckily, the Texans’ secondary allowed the second-most touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season. Additionally, two of McConkey’s seven touchdowns have come from at least 40 yards out––a major weakness for Houston, who is tied for the second-most 40+ yard receptions allowed this season. A bomb early in the first quarter could get the job done but even if Los Angeles makes it to the red zone, he is still in good shape to find the end zone first. Quentin Johnston led all Chargers’ pass catchers in red zone targets but McConkey is still incredibly efficient in the red zone, hauling in 7-of-8 targets for five touchdowns this season.
