We have been blessed with a classic AFC North postseason matchup between the Ravens and Steelers. Pittsburgh is a whopping 9.5-point underdog on the road and the game total is set at O/U 43.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. I’m sure you’re aware of the narratives––Lamar Jackson disappears in the postseason and the Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since 2017.
But, who cares about those narratives when we’re focused on first touchdown scorer prop bets? Derrick Henry (+290) is the obvious frontrunner in terms of odds with both Rashod Bateman (+750) and Mark Andrews (+750) filling out the top three. Please read below for my top first touchdown scorer and a breakdown for Ravens vs. Steelers.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson First TD Scorer (+800)
Perhaps it will be different this time around but Jackson depends on his legs more than usual when playing in the postseason. Across six playoff games since 2018, he has averaged 12.2 rushing attempts and 86.8 rushing yards per game. The absence of Zay Flowers makes me love this bet even more, too. I’m obviously worried that this will be quickly spoiled by Henry, who just torched the Steelers for 162 rushing yards in Week 16, but I’m trusting Jackson to stick to what he’s best at, and that’s scrambling.
Pittsburgh ranks third in pass rush win rate and Baltimore ranks third in pass block win rate. Something’s gotta give here and considering it’s T.J. Watt on the other side, I’m hoping to see Lamar running for his life. The Steelers’ defense was very good at containing scrambling quarterbacks this season, allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game. But, we’re talking about the playoffs. Jackson is also not your average scrambling quarterback.
He mentioned in a press conference earlier this week that he has been far too antsy in previous postseasons and that’s telling me that he isn’t going to look for big plays or tight windows. He will stick to what he’s best at and pick up easy rushing gains all game. If Baltimore gets within the five-yard line, chances are the first play or two will be a read option––let’s hope Jackson sees an opening and keeps it for himself.
