Nico Collins suddenly finds himself as the lone top dog in the Houston Texans’ wide receiver room. First it was Stefon Diggs, who tore his ACL in Week 8. Then, it was Tank Dell, who was hospitalized on December 21 after suffering a dislocated knee and severe ligament damage.
Collins will have to hope that his connection with quarterback C.J. Stroud is enough to get the Texans over the line in their playoff opener, a 4:30 p.m. ET clash against the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday. This season, Collins has recorded 68 catches for 1,006 yards and seven touchdowns despite appearing in just 12 games.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Houston is a three-point underdog, and the point total is set at 41.5. Below, I’ve identified my favorite prop bets centered around Collins.
Best Nico Collins Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Nico Collins U87.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Even with his status as the Texans’ clear No. 1 receiver, I’m still not sure I love Collins to put up gaudy receiving totals, especially since he hasn’t been the same since a returning from a hamstring injury in Week 11. In five games prior to his injury, he averaged 113.4 receiving yards per game and notched three triple-digit performances. However, in the seven games since, he’s averaged just 62.7 receiving yards per game and only topped the 100-yard plateau once.
Sure, Stroud targets him a lot; his 25.3% overall target share, 30.8% red zone target share, and 23.8% end zone target share all lead Houston by wide margins. But he hasn’t been able to do a ton with it recently, averaging a paltry 6.44 yards per target in his past four games. That’s a mark that would have ranked 58th-worst among 220 players with at least 25 targets this season. It’s hard to read too much into his five-catch, 38-yard Week 18 performance in which he played just one drive, but the three catches and 59 yards he recorded in the first game after Dell’s injury wasn’t particularly encouraging.
Los Angeles also has a pretty good passing defense, holding opposing wideouts to just 3,762 yards — the eighth-fewest of any team — and 10.2 yards per reception, the fourth-lowest. The Chargers’ secondary is led by sixth-year safety Derwin James, who was just named to his fourth Pro Bowl and third All-Pro team. Quarterbacks have posted just a 74.2 passer rating while targeting James.
Nico Collins Anytime TD Scorer (+145)
Just because Collins might have a tough time reaching the 88-yard mark doesn’t necessarily mean I think he’ll have a terrible game. Stroud has thrown at least one touchdown pass in each of his last six games, including two or more scores in three of them. At some point, somebody has to catch a touchdown pass, and Stroud has no more reliable target than Collins. Collins did catch a touchdown pass to finish the Texans’ game-opening drive in Week 18, the only possession in which the starters played.
Los Angeles has also given up plenty of scores this season. The Chargers have allowed 19 touchdown passes to wide receivers, tied for the sixth-most in the league and the third-most among the 14 teams still in the running to lift the Lombardi Trophy.
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