The second game of the NFL Saturday slate will take place between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers. This will be the third matchup between these AFC North foes this season. The two teams split their regular season matchups.
Baltimore enters with legitimate Super Bowl hopes and has the best-supporting cast surrounding in the Lamar Jackson era. They did receive some unfortunate injury news as Zay Flowers suffered a knee injury in Week 18 that will keep him out. The Ravens rank third in the NFL in scoring and first in yards while showing a notable defensive turnaround to close the season. They enter the playoffs with a 12-5 record and won the division for the second straight year.
It has been a bit of a rockier path for the Pittsburgh Steelers. They started the season with Justin Fields at quarterback and utilized his rushing ability before making the quarterback change to Russell Wilson and opening things up with his arms. They hold a 10-7 record on the season, but their defense has shown some concerning signs down the stretch, particularly against the pass.
The Ravens enter this game as 8.5-point favorites and -1455 on the Moneyline. The Steelers are +350 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 43.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Saturday Night thriller.
Lamar Jackson Over 217.5 Passing Yards (-115)
With two MVPs already under his belt, Lamar Jackson took his game to even greater heights this season. The lone weakness on his resume is playoff success and Jackson has the best chance of his career with the supporting cast behind him. In the regular season, he threw for 4,172 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, and just four interceptions. He also has added 915 rushing yards and four touchdowns with his legs.
Pittsburgh is a team that has given Jackson the most trouble in his career and this season. But their passing defense has looked concerning down the stretch and Jackson is processing the game at a more advanced level this year. Even with Jackson’s success, there is no doubt that they are a run-first football team. Derrick Henry has provided a new element to their offense and raised the ceiling of the team.
With this all said, expect the game plan of the Steelers to be to stack the box and force Jackson to beat them with his arm. He is more than capable of doing exactly this and has proven so this season. Jackson is averaging 245.4 passing yards per game and has thrown for over 217.5 passing yards in ten of the 17 games. While he was held to exactly 207 passing yards in both matchups with Pittsburgh this year, look for Jackson to cement the belief in the Super Bowl-caliber quarterback he is capable of being. Look for him to throw for over 217.5 passing yards in this matchup the alternate lines are also intriguing to me.
Jaylen Warren Over 56.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-115)
Najee Harris is the Steelers’ top running back by reputation, but Jaylen Warren has quietly surpassed him as the season has progressed. Looking at the season overall, Harris carries the ball 263 times for 1,043 rushing yards and six touchdowns while adding 36 receptions for 283 receiving yards. In contrast, Warren received 120 carries for 511 rushing yards and a touchdown while adding 28 receptions for 310 yards through the air.
However, when you look at the final few weeks of the season Warren saw increased opportunities. Warren out-snapped Harris in four of the five final games and also had success in the two matchups with the Ravens this year. He finished with 68 combined rushing and receiving yards in the first matchup and 92 in the second game. Warren has recorded over 56.5 yards from scrimmage in ten of the 15 games he has played.
Count on both running backs to play a role in this game but expect Warren to be especially valuable as a pass catcher. He also has handled the bulk of the red zone opportunities in recent weeks. Expect his role to be larger than many are expecting and for Warren to record over 56.5 rushing and receiving yards for the third time this season against the Steelers.
George Pickens Anytime Touchdown (+205)
No player benefitted from the quarterback change in Pittsburgh more than George Pickens. The Georgia product has tallied 59 receptions for 900 yards and three touchdowns. After leading in the NFL with 18.1 yards per reception last season, Pickens’ big play ability has returned with Wilson and become a key part of the Steelers offense.
While the three touchdowns on the season do not provide much confidence, Baltimore has struggled to defend the pass far more than the rush. Looking at their production on the season, the Ravens allow the fewest rushing yards and rank seventh in rushing yards allowed. In contrast, they rank 31st in passing yards allowed and 19th in passing touchdowns conceded. They have shown improvement as the season has progressed but the vulnerabilities are still there.
If Pittsburgh is going to have a chance in this game they are going to need to score the football. All three of George Pickens’ touchdowns came across the final eight weeks of the season and with Wilson at quarterback. Expect Mike Tomlin to be willing to give the 23-year-old a few chances at a big play and for him to be their top red-zone option. Take a chance on him to find pay dirt at +205 odds and count on the Steelers to look at him as the primary option in the passing game and in the red zone.
Russell Wilson & Lamar Jackson to Combine for 500+ Passing Yards (+230)
Located in the player specials section on DraftKings Sportsbook, it is worth taking a chance on Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson to throw for over 500 combined passing yards at +230 odds. Most are expecting this to be a low-scoring defensive matchup, but the pathway is there for this to break open for some offense.
During the first matchup between these two teams, the quarterbacks combined for 412 passing yards. In the Week 16 matchup the two combined for 424 passing yards. Jackson is averaging 245.4 passing yards per game this season and has thrown for as many as 348 passing yards in a game this season. Wilson is averaging 225.6 passing games this season and has thrown for as many as 414 yards in a game this season.
Count on Lamar Jackson to be the driving force in reaching this total as the Steelers look to pack the box and eliminate the run game. Both of these quarterbacks are capable of throwing for over 300 yards individually and the Steelers will be forced to rely on Wilson to generate offense if the Steelers fall behind. Expect some more offensive fireworks than the over/under would indicate and for both quarterbacks to find their stride for stretches. This is a risky play at the +230 odds indicate but I like both quarterbacks to put up impressive stat lines with their playoff hopes on the line.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
