Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans (Saturday 4:30pm ET)
The Chargers are shaping up to be one of the most public sides of the weekend, floating around 85-90% of the betting handle on the spread all week. That said, this game hasn’t moved to 3.5. In fact, it has touched 2.5 on occasions, and then bumps back up to Houston getting 3. That tells me that the book will have a clear rooting interest on the Texans here, as will sharper bettors. When you breakdown the game a bit deeper, you can see why Houston would be the side here as a home dog.
While I give credit to Jim Harbaugh for elevating the program, the Chargers did benefit from a pretty soft schedule. The only wins over playoff teams both came in divisional wins over the Broncos (0-5 versus playoff teams, plus a loss to Arizona). While the Texans have been bashed for late season losses to Kansas City, and specifically putting up two points in a loss to Baltimore, those are the elite of the AFC. The Texans have also proven capable of beating elite teams with a win over Buffalo, in which the pass defense was crucial. Houston ranked fourth in the NFL in passing yards allowed at home, and can turn the Chargers back into a one dimensional team in this one.
I like Houston’s secondary to be the key in this game, and C.J. Stroud and company to find a couple more big plays down field. It’s just the third time this season that the Texans will be priced as an underdog at home, with the other two being against Baltimore and Buffalo. The Chargers don’t belong in that category. I’ll take the field goal with the home dog.
The Play: Texans +3 (-115) – 1.5-units
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