You never like to see a bookshelf with ugly bookends; it threatens to distract from all the glorious storylines held between. Unfortunately, this is a fine representation of the 2024-2025 Los Angeles Rams, who started the season 1-4 because of an IR so expensive it could rent out half of SoFi Stadium. And, despite this team having ended the season 5-0, they did so with Matthew Stafford throwing under 200 yards for three of those games, Cooper Kupp held catchless in two, and a few lucky turnovers from rookie standout Kam Kinchens and veteran corner Akhello Witherspoon to, quite literally, save the win. It’s fair to say the Rams snuck their way into the four-seed in the NFC, which has drawn them the five-seed Minnesota Vikings on Monday of NFL Super Wild Card Weekend.
And in a season with so many narrative subplots (Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford trade rumors; Puka Nacua’s tricky OTA knee injury; the challenge of filling the Aaron Donald void on the defensive front; etc.), we’ve got another one that affects the Rams: due to the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles, which have left so many American citizens having lost everything material to their names, this game will be played in Glendale, Arizona.
(Aside: If you’re whatsoever in a position and motivated, I encourage you to donate to the first responders and affected families in LA. Here’s a comprehensive list of places to donate and specific needs for each organization, courtesy of ABC7 News Los Angeles. Back to football.)
As a result, the Rams won’t have home field advantage (though their fans had first dibs on buying tickets), but home field advantage at SoFi isn’t exactly anything the Rams are used to, anyways. They always use the silent count at home, infuriatingly. Having said that, this has resulted in a line movement on DraftKings Sportsbook: the Minnesota Vikings went from one-and-a-half-point favorites to two-and-a-half-point favorites with the news.
And while this season in Los Angeles signaled the ushering in of a new era of young, homegrown stars growing into locker room leaders—Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Kobie Turner, Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Kam Kinchens, just to name a handful—it also suggests the end of the 2021 Super Bowl LVI team. It’s not just a plausibility that Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp might be playing their last games for the Los Angeles Rams; it’s also a possibility they’re playing the final football games of their respective careers.
A roller coaster ride with high stakes and loaded full with legacy sentimentality. Not to mention: the eyes and heavy hearts of a beleaguered, tragedy-stricken city—their city—all on them on Monday night. No pressure, new guys!
Let’s analyze the Rams’ performance this season by the numbers. Then we’ll break down some of the Rams’ storylines this season as they relate to potential playoff outlook before we get into some game predictions and best bets.
The 2024-2025 Los Angeles Rams: by the numbers
Evaluating the Rams using EPA
It’s a bit of a misdirect to evaluate the Rams on a season-long scale, as it’s fair to say that each phase of their football team has had several different identities during different stretches of the regular season. But, for the sake of a holistic approach to start, we’ll once more dive into rdbsm stats‘ efficiency rankings based on EPA/play on total offense and defense.
Statistically, it’s no wonder the Vikings are road (“road,” now, I guess) favorites against these Los Angeles Rams. Compared to the other playoff teams, where the Rams fall on this graph doesn’t exactly portend well for their chances against Minnesota, or any playoff team, really. The only other alarmingly below-average playoff team here—who rank slightly higher than the Rams—is the Houston Texans.
That the Rams are clustered with the Atlanta Falcons, the San Francisco 49ers, and the Arizona Cardinals tells you just about what sort of team this has been, statistically, in a season-long view: inconsistent, injury-riddled, discordant, and fringe.
Let’s take a look at the Rams’ offensive and defensive efficiency only during the stretch between Week 6 and Week 18; this will give us a better indicator of the teams quality relative to the rest of the league, seeing as we’re doing away with their anomalous 1-4 start.
The Rams’ offense was just above league-average during this time (likely weighed down by the four low-scoring games in December). They ranked fourteenth in total offensive EPA beginning Week 6 through the rest of the season, just above the Kansas City Chiefs and a titch worse than the Washington Commanders.
And, though they remain below-league-average across the entire season, it’s really the improved defensive play (not necessarily efficiency, however) under Chris Shula.
Again, the following graph is only representative of Weeks 6-18. The Rams’ EPA/play allowed on defense was also 14th in the NFL during this stretch of the 2024 regular season.
All in all: a team whose holistic average efficiency numbers, especially offensively, are skewed by rough performances in 80% of their final five games in December.
What DVOA says about the Rams’ efficiency
According to FTN Fantasy, the Rams’ triumph re. season-long efficiency as defined by DVOA was on the offensive side of the ball:
- Total offensive DVOA: 9.8% (tenth)
- Offensive passing DVOA: 28.8% (tenth)
- Offensive rushing DVOA: -2.6% (tenth)
- Total defensive DVOA: 4.4% (26th)
- Defensive passing DVOA: 12.5% (24th)
- Defensive rushing DVOA: -4.3% (21st)
Again, this all points to an average team that punched above its weight class to end up in the four-seed.
And while everyone else is busy considering the Rams a tough out, or thinking they might be playing for the city of Los Angeles, or might just be volcanically poised to destroy the Vikings simply because of Dan Campbell’s “See you in two weeks!” comment to Kevin O’Connell after Lions/Vikings Week 18 showdown, I’m too focused on where the Rams need to improve to make a deep playoff run.
Playoff Outlook: The Corrections
Despite the Rams’ top-ten DVOA offense, most of the corrections they’ll need to make, by my estimation, are on the offensive side of the ball.
Acknowledging the Stafford problem
I hate to call it that, especially as such a diehard fan of Stafford’s career. But it’s a problem. A quarterback who’s on a run that ranks him among the league’s six least-efficient quarterbacks is an absolute timebomb for a playoff team.
Let’s talk about the Cardinals game, shall we? Matthew Stafford was 17 of 32 passing for 189 yards and zero touchdowns. And check out this damning tidbit of info from NFL Next Gen Stats re. Stafford’s time-to-throw in this game.
It was clear McVay was intent on getting Stafford more passing attempts in the first half during their Week 17 game against Arizona. Stafford ended the first half with 21 of his 32 total attempts. It just didn’t look good, however. And his decline in efficiency has been real. In Weeks 10-14, among quarterbacks with at least 175 dropbacks, Matthew Stafford ranked fourth in the league in EPA/dropback. In Weeks 15-17, however, he ranks 26th in that same stat. A significant and gobsmacking regression, make no mistake.
Which is to say: the Rams need Stafford to return to his midseason form in order to have any hope at being able to keep up with a Commanders offense which compares quite well to Buffalo’s in both rush and pass EPA/play (see the graph above). The problem for the Rams right now, unfortunately, is at quarterback.
Acknowledged.
Fixing the Stafford problem
How can the Rams get Stafford back in rhythm? The Buffalo Blueprint, as I like to call it. Matthew Stafford was 16/20 on throws against zone coverage with a 126.1 passer rating in that game. He averaged 10.4 yards per attempt. Minnesota deploys zone coverage on 74.0% of opponent dropbacks, good for 12th-most in the NFL. In the game against Minnesota, Stafford was 20/28 against their zone coverage for 199 yards and a 100.1 passer rating. His average yards per attempt clocked in at 7.9. Against Buffalo, he only completed six passes throughout the game when he was under pressure, so his offensive line’s ability to give him time in the pocket is going to be key.
Let’s run back some of the plays he had against Buffalo, or at least pivot back to that offensive approach, get him back to hitting his playmakers over the middle of the field. And, please, for the love of all that’s good on this planet, utilize play action at least 33% of Stafford’s dropbacks. Another stat from NFL NGS on Matthew Stafford’s play-action success this year through 16 weeks:
Simply put, Stafford’s play has been extremely poor, and it needs to improve. He is the the swelling earth that raises this stampede of Rams. He’s gotta turn it around. He will.
No more slow starts
Did you know that Matthew Stafford often uses the phrase “hit ’em in the mouth right from the jump!” in his pregame huddle pump-up speech? Like—do we need him to be more insistent about it? Or is this a jinx situation. Because, holy smokes, Rams fans, this sort of offensive performance is bound to usher this team to a first-round exit.
Correcting the efficiency from the quarterback position needs to be the key focus for conversions on early scoring opportunities to improve. Kyren Williams ranks 11th in the NFL over the last five weeks in rushing yards over expectation (RYOE). He’s doing plenty of extra work himself. See this stat from NFL Next Gen Stats about his RYOE against the Jets in Week 16:
The run game, strangely, is fine. We know this. And it’ll only get better with Havenstein back.
Mike LaFleur, McVay, and Stafford need to work to diversify the passing game from a Puka Nacua funnel. This high-volume-high-catch-efficiency approach for Puka can only go so far against playoff-caliber defenses. Which leads me to my next point.
Re-incorporate Cooper Kupp as the third head to this LA hydra
But for his remarkable “thighburg” catch, as Tom Brady dubbed it, against the Buffalo Bills, Cooper Kupp has largely been nonexistent as a playmaker. He’s running pre-snap motions like he’s training for a marathon, and he’s out there blocking in the run game as effectively as he’s ever been. He had a 29-yard catch on Saturday against Arizona, but other than that: crickets. What gives?
Partly, it’s been the quick three-and-outs and the decline in total offensive snaps for the entire team. But Cooper Kupp’s offensive plays per game was creeping up near the 60s during those weeks when Matthew Stafford was among the league’s most elite. He’s averaging closer to 47 now. Which, to be fair, is no greater a downtick percentage-wise than that of the Rams’ entire offense.
Sometimes, the solution can be simple. I think it can between Stafford and Kupp. Back to basics stuff. Feed him early. Get him on the field and call plays designed for Kupp’s route-running efficiency and YAC-ability in the first quarter in the Wild Card game. See if there’s a rhythm kink, here, that two vets and close friends like Stafford and Kupp can work out with regulation reps to free Puka and Kyren, set them up for more separation-grade success.
At least do something for him with the football in his hands to make all the pre-snap and empty-target cardio worth it. And do it early.
Finish sacks
The Rams rush four on 69.1% of their defensive plays, and force QB pressure 32.9% of the time when doing so. That’s among the league’s top-six teams in pressure per play when rushing only four defenders. Credit this to the dominance of Kobie Turner, Braden Fiske, and Jared Verse up front.
However, the Rams are sixth-worst in the league when it comes to QB-pressure-to-sack-conversion percentage, clocking in at a discouraging 17.6%. That’s right above the New England Patriots and the Cincinnati Bengals, for reference. Read: ugly.
That’s the key stat that needs to see some positive regression on the defensive side. The Rams need to hope Sam Darnold’s trend of holding onto the football too long continues so that their voracious front-four to bring him to the turf on some misguided dropbacks in the pocket, or attempts to extend plays to drive the ball downfield.
Rams vs. Vikings preview, prediction, and best bets
Preview
The Rams aren’t really the trendy team anymore—on to Cincinnati, as they say—and for good reason. Everything that made them fun to watch, intimidating to think about competitively, and spectacularly dynamic has taken a major step back, and it starts at the quarterback position. Their defense has bailed them out too much, and the offensive play-calling has almost put the onus on the other phases of the game to outplay their opponents. It’s as if their approach on the offensive phase of the game four of the last five weeks has simply been to not lose the game. Period. And that’s not how you win playoff games.
It’s the inconsistency of the offense that will lose the Rams the game. It starts with McVay and Mike LaFleur, but the largest responsibility falls on Matthew Stafford. And he’s absolutely due for a bounceback game.
Prediction & outcome
We watched this team, which will indeed be as healthy as its been come Wild Card weekend, go score-for-score with an offense better than Minnesota (Buffalo in Week 14), and the defense hasn’t been this rested or healthy since right around the last time the Rams hosted the Vikings in Week 8.
I give the coaching and quarterback advantage to LA, here. And I think the turnover battle might be robust, but I believe it will balance out. Two for each team, but Stafford gets his out early. Darnold crumbles in a key moment. Find that 100.1-QB-rating Stafford again, especially against a defense with which he’s familiar, and Rams win.
Rams win.
Best bet: Rams ML (+124)
Outcome: Rams 24, Vikings 20
How the Rams square against their bracket path
Big yikes. The Rams’ most likely opponents in the potential divisional round are the Lions and the Eagles. There’s an outside chance they could face the Buccaneers, however. Having said that, the Rams will almost certainly enter the divisional round as three-plus-point underdogs should they escape their neutral-site game against the Vikings on Monday.
Betting market to target: Matthew Stafford’s passing touchdown prop
We’re still not getting much give on Stafford’s yardage market, the total for which sits at 240.5, currently, for the Wild Card game on Monday. He only needed 279 yards in Week 8 to hang 30 on the Vikings, so this is a little too rich for my blood.
However, where the market might be slacking a bit currently is in Stafford’s passing touchdowns. From Weeks 8-14 (to be clear, the version of Matthew Stafford the Rams are counting on unlocking once more for the playoffs), Stafford threw for fewer than two touchdowns only once.
They’ll need him to clear this number to win the game, and it’s even likelier that he’ll hit it if the Rams need to play catch-up.
Are the Rams a good bet to win the Super Bowl?
If the Rams beat Minnesota, the current +4500 odds for them to win the Super Bowl is going to get cleaved in half, if not more. I’m getting in on the Rams early, and relying on the scheme-guru minds of McVay and LaFleur to understand they need to get Stafford in rhythm early, too. Once they help Stafford get there, the veteran savvy and top-drawer coaching should take the game over. Let’s just hope Darnold turns the ball over at least once.
Back the Rams with me on DraftKings Sportsbook by clicking the best bet link below. One last ride for nine and ten (Stafford and Kupp, for those unfamiliar with Rams parlance)—shall we?:
Best futures bet: Rams to win Super Bowl (+4500)
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
