Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects the Wizards’ memeable star Jordan Poole to have a 50% chance to play today. Poole has missed the last three game games for Washington with a left hip contusion and his absence — along with the also unavailable Malcolm Brogdon — has opened up huge minutes and opportunity for the remaining Wizards.
In a matchup with the equally high-paced and defensively-lacking Bulls, Poole’s status is a key. This is a game with a 243 point combined total that’s the highest on today’s slate of NBA games. Poole’s availability has a major impact on tonight’s DFS tournaments and prop betting markets with his 29% usage, 25.7% assist rate and 1.13 DraftKings Points Per Minute in flux.
If Poole plays, he’d be an interesting tournament option. Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections would have Poole projected for 22.4 points, 2.9 rebounds and 5.7 assists. Despite those huge totals, Unabated’s market simulations project 14.6% Expected Value on the under for Jordan Poole’s market line of 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists on DraftKings Sportsbook.
If Poole is out, there’d be a major impact on his teammates’ projections — even if his fellow questionable Wizard Alex Sarr were to play tonight:
- Kyle Kuzma projects for 23.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 4.9 assists (18.6 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists if Poole plays)
- Bilal Coulibaly projects for 16.6 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.9 assists (13.4 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists if Poole plays)
- Bub Carrington projects for 12.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.9 assists (10.3 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.7 assists if Poole plays)
- Alex Sarr projects for 14.9 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists (12.0 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.2 assists if Poole plays …and I supposed if Sarr himself does, too)
In addition to those huge projections gains, there’d be significant impact to these players’ market lines on DraftKings Sportsbook. According to Unabated’s bet simulation tools, Kyle Kuzma would see 38.3% EV on his over 27.5 PRAs line if Poole sits. Bilal Coulibaly would see 17.5% EV on over 23.5 PRAs, Alex Sarr 14.2% EV on over 22.5 PRAs and Bub Carrington with a whopping 31.1% EV on his over 19.5 PRAs. You’d also see more opportunity for Jared Butler, who just hung 26 points in the Sixers in 20 minutes the other night without Poole.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
