Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans (Saturday 4:30pm ET)
The Chargers are shaping up to be one of the most public sides of the weekend, floating around 85-90% of the betting handle on the spread all week. That said, this game hasn’t moved to 3.5. In fact, it has touched 2.5 on occasions, and then bumps back up to Houston getting 3. That tells me that the book will have a clear rooting interest on the Texans here, as will sharper bettors. When you breakdown the game a bit deeper, you can see why Houston would be the side here as a home dog.
While I give credit to Jim Harbaugh for elevating the program, the Chargers did benefit from a pretty soft schedule. The only wins over playoff teams both came in divisional wins over the Broncos (0-5 versus playoff teams, plus a loss to Arizona). While the Texans have been bashed for late season losses to Kansas City, and specifically putting up two points in a loss to Baltimore, those are the elite of the AFC. The Texans have also proven capable of beating elite teams with a win over Buffalo, in which the pass defense was crucial. Houston ranked fourth in the NFL in passing yards allowed at home, and can turn the Chargers back into a one dimensional team in this one.
I like Houston’s secondary to be the key in this game, and C.J. Stroud and company to find a couple more big plays down field. It’s just the third time this season that the Texans will be priced as an underdog at home, with the other two being against Baltimore and Buffalo. The Chargers don’t belong in that category. I’ll take the field goal with the home dog.
The Play: Texans +3 (-115) – 1.5-units
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (Saturday 8:00pm ET)
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1:00pm ET)
The Ravens and Bills will be popular moneyline parlay legs this weekend, but pairing the two together is only -210. That’s much too steep of a price, and while I rarely play a 7-point teaser, I think -140 is more than a fair price to get both of these teams down under a field goal.
Removing Denver’s Week 18 win over a Kansas City roster that sat all key players, its only win over a .500 team this season was against Tampa Bay. And that was in a game the Bucs were decimated with injury, not to mention sandwiched between signature wins over the Lions and Eagles. Denver caught Tampa at the right time. Going to Buffalo and getting a win over a healthy Bills squad in the playoffs seems like a tall ask for Bo Nix and company at this stage.
While the Steelers have the advantage of playing a divisional opponent for the third time this season, I don’t see much going for them beyond that. Sure, maybe Mike Tomlin and the defense can cook something up against Lamar Jackson to keep it within 10 points, but I don’t think Pittsburgh has much of a chance to win this game with how the offense is playing. Last Saturday night was a dreadful performance (and miracle +2.5 cover) for the offense, and it came against a Cincinnati secondary that hasn’t been able to get a stop all season. That game was also at home, and against familiar division competition. I’m not expecting things to get much better here on the road against a gritty Baltimore squad.
Look for the Ravens to be able to run the ball, and get just enough through the air to make some game changing plays. Derrick Henry’s prop is set at 98.5 rushing yards, and I do expect him to be a big factor — he ripped off 24 carries for 162 yards last month in a win over Pitt. While I haven’t backed Henry yet, I may look into a Same Game Parlay on him. Henry to rush for 100+ with a touchdown in a Ravens win is priced at +160, and has nice correlation.
The Play: 7PT Teaser: BAL -2.5/BUF -1.5 (-140) – 2.5-units
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 8:00pm ET)
While the splits on the spread are pretty even here, bettors are looking to Jaylen Daniels and the Commanders to get the road win here. Roughly 75% of the handle on the moneyline has been on Washington throughout the week, and I think the public is sleeping on a good Bucs squad here at home.
While Washington gets all the love for its fifth-ranked offense (28.5 PPG), the Bucs actually ranked fourth in the NFL (29.5 PPG). Sure, Baker Mayfield is capable of making mistakes, but he should also make some big plays in this game. Washington’s defense ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in points allowed on the road, and while the pass defense was solid, it has by far the worst run defense of the playoff teams.
The Commanders ranked 30th in the NFL in rushing yards per game allowed, and got worse as the season progressed, giving up more than 160 per game over their last three. Bucky Irving will be a key to this game, as Tampa’s ability to run the ball should help open everything up. And if the Bucs can play with the lead at home, the rushing attack should be able to take them home. I’m not confident in Washington’s ability to stop the run late.
The Play: Buccaneers -3 (-110) – 1-unit
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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