The NFL Wild Card weekend will be kicked off by a matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans. This game will be taking place in Houston and kicking off at 4:30 p.m. ET.
The Texans enter with a higher seed after winning the AFC South with their 10-7 record. Houston entered the season with high hopes but has had some unfortunate injury breaks throughout the season. The organization made a big swing by trading for Stefon Diggs to add to their dynamic passing attack. Diggs was off to a solid start but suffered an ACL tear in Week 8 in a victory over the Indianapolis Colts. He was then joined on injured reserve by Tank Dell who suffered a gruesome knee injury in Week 16 against the Chiefs. C.J. Stroud also has suffered a little bit of a sophomore slump and the Texans suffered a 31-2 loss to the Ravens in Week 17 which put to the forefront their concerns. Nonetheless, anything can happen on any given Sunday and the Texans have flashed their ability to play at a high level as well.
On the other side of the matchup are the Los Angeles Chargers, who enter with momentum on their side. They hold an 11-6 record but enter the playoffs through the Wild Card as the Chiefs won the AFC West with their 15-2 record. Jim Harbaugh has done an impressive job building an identity with this Chargers team, and Justin Herbert has played some of the best football of his NFL career. They enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak and play a defensive-minded brand of football which could cause some problems.
The Chargers enter this game as 2.5-point favorites and -162 on the Moneyline. The Texans are +136 underdogs on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 42.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the opening matchup of this year’s NFL playoffs.
Joe Mixon Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
While running backs like Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs have been given plenty of credit for the impact they have made in the offenses of their new teams, Joe Mixon also has a place in the conversation. After spending the first seven years with the Cincinnati Bengals, he joined the Texans this offseason and had one of the best seasons of his career. Overall he has carried the ball 245 times this season for 1,016 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, while adding 309 receiving yards and a touchdown through the air.
Houston entered the season with a variety of offensive weapons but injuries have limited their options as the season has progressed. Expect a healthy dose of Mixon in this matchup as the Texans lean on a more run-based approach. The Chargers rank 14th in rushing yards allowed and 27th in net yards per rush attempt. Mixon is averaging 72.6 rushing yards per game and has rushed for over 100 yards in seven games this season.
Mixon should be well-rested as the Texans limited his opportunities to close the season with the division in hand. The Oklahoma product had just 14 carries over the final two weeks of the season and expect him to be fully unleashed this season. Mixon received 20+ carries in seven games this season and should be in line for this type of workload. Expect him to make the most of these chances and record over 70.5 rushing yards in this matchup.
Quentin Johnston Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
There is no doubt about the talent of Quentin Johnston when he has the ball in his hands. However, his issues with drops have become increasingly concerning as the season has progressed. He ranks 18th in the NFL in drops this season and has only caught 55 of the 91 targets thrown his way. This is an increase compared to him only being able to pull in 38 of his 67 targets in his rookie season.
The Chargers made it a clear effort to feed his confidence in the final week of the season and force-fed him 13 receptions for 186 receiving yards. However, when push comes to shove this week expect Ladd McConkey to be the clear-cut top wide receiver. Johnston has been held to under 42.5 receiving yards in seven games this season.
Houston’s defense has not shined overall this season, but they rank sixth in passing yards allowed and third in net yards per pass attempt. Justin Herbert is still largely unproven in a postseason setting with his lone playoff appearance resulting in a historic 27-point blown lead. Expect Los Angeles to lean on their rushing attack in this matchup and for Johnston to be held below 42.5 receiving yards in the first matchup of this year’s NFL playoffs.
Justin Herbert Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The arm talent has always been one of the biggest talking points surrounding Justin Herbert. However, the Oregon product has flashed his ability with his legs this season at an increased rate. On the season overall he has rushed the ball 69 times for 306 yards and two touchdowns. This comes to an average of 18.0 yards per game.
This skill has been something leaned on more as the season has progressed with Herbert rushing the ball four or more times in seven of the last nine weeks of the season. He rushed for over 19.5 yards in six games this year with each of them coming over the final 11 games of the season. He rushed for just 34 total yards over the first six games.
Houston has struggled against rushing quarterbacks this season. They allowed 87 rushing yards to Lamar Jackson, 33 rushing yards to Patrick Mahomes, 54 yards to Josh Allen, and 101 rushing yards across two matchups with Anthony Richardson. While Herbert is not quite the talent with his legs as most of these playoff quarterbacks, 19.5 rushing yards is a low enough bar to be confident in him clearing it. Look for the Chargers quarterback to take advantage of a few opportunities to scramble for free yards and rush for over 19.5 on the ground against the Texans.
Nico Collins Anytime Touchdown (+140)
The diverse wide receiver options were a huge part of the Texans’ offensive attack this season. But with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell out for the season, Nico Collins will be the clearcut top wide receiver set to see plenty of action. Despite being limited to 12 games due to his injury issues, Collins managed to record over 1,000 receiving yards for the second consecutive season. He also was the clear top option in the red zone leading the team with seven receiving touchdowns with no other Texans pass-catcher recording more than three on the season.
Los Angeles has a strong overall defense that leads the league in fewest points per game. However, they rank 12th in passing touchdowns conceded while allowing the fewest rushing touchdowns on the year. Collins only played one drive in the final regular season game as the Texans rested their top players to limit injury risk. In this one drive, Colling recorded five catches for 38 yards and a touchdown.
The Texans are limited in the number of reliable pass-catchers and C.J. Stroud will provide his trusted options with some significant opportunities. Collins headlines this list and will see plenty of action in this matchup. He stands at 6-foot-4 with plenty of strength and is extremely capable in the red zone. Expect Stroud and the Texans to view Collins as the top option for putting points on the board and capitalize on the +140 odds for him to score a touchdown.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
