There are seven games of action on the Friday night NBA slate. The season is rapidly approaching its midway point and the season’s picture is being painted.
The 7:30 p.m. ET matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the New York Knicks will headline the night of basketball. The Thunder will be looking to bounce back after what may have been the best regular-season game of the season when the Cleveland Cavaliers produced another statement victory. This should not be a loss the Thunder are embarrassed by, but they will now turn their attention to another Eastern Conference contender.
In addition, the Orlando Magic will host the Milwaukee Bucks, the Golden State Warriors will travel to play the Indiana Pacers and the Philadelphia 76ers will play the New Orleans Pelicans in the 7:00 p.m. ET window. The Boston Celtics will host the Sacramento Kings and the Chicago Bulls will play the Washington Wizards. The final matchup of the night will tip-off at 9:00 p.m. ET and take place between the Brooklyn Nets and the Denver Nuggets.
While there will be more eventful nights on the NBA schedule, here are my favorite prop bets on the Friday night slate.
Buddy Hield Under 18.5 Points (-110)
The Buddy Hield experience in Golden State has already seen its ups and downs. The 32-year-old is averaging 12.3 points on 42.7% shooting from the floor and 38.7% on three-point attempts. Golden State is still trying a variety of approaches and has shifted its identity several times in an effort to spark the team’s production. Heading into tonight’s matchup it is expected Hield will see a further boost in opportunity due to the injuries the Warriors are facing.
This is the second night of a back-to-back for the Warriors. Golden State secured a thrilling 107-104 victory over the Pistons last night in which Jonathan Kuminga, Andrew Wiggins and Brandin Podziemski each missed. Steph Curry, Dennis Schroder and Draymond Green were each listed as questionable for this matchup earlier in the day but ended up suiting up. Keep an eye on the injury report leading into tonight’s matchup with the Indiana Pacers.
Even if Hield sees a boost in shot opportunities due to other players missing, his inconsistent output makes him hard to back. As a team, the Warriors have averaged just 102.0 points per game on the road over the past 10 games, the worst mark in the league. Opposing small forwards have also attempted just 2.9 three-point attempts against the Pacers this year, the fewest in the NBA. While he may see an increase in shot volume if injuries take a toll on this Warriors team, not having other offensive creators will be a hit to Hield’s efficiency. On the season Hield is connecting on 43.7% of his three-point attempts off the catch but just 28.4% of his long-range shots off the dribble. This has been a problem for the Oklahoma product throughout his career.
Looking at the season overall, Hield has been held to under 18.5 points in 29 of the 37 games he has played. While he dropped 19 points last night, it was the time he had scored 19+ points since December 8. Expect Hield’s inconsistent form to show up again tonight and for him to be bothered by some of the off-ball defense the Pacers have flashed from players like Andrew Nembhard.
Paul George Over 11.5 Assists & Rebounds (-105)
It has not exactly been a seamless transition for Paul George after signing the massive contract to join the Philadelphia 76ers this offseason. While the organizational issues are far deeper than just George, he has not been able to elevate the Sixers in the games Joel Embiid has not played in the way it was hoped. This opportunity will be on the table again tonight as Embiid is set to miss the matchup with the Pelicans due to a left foot sprain.
While his scoring output has been mild, as George is averaging just 16.2 points on 41.4% shooting from the field, he has done a nice job impacting the game as a playmaker and on the boards. The nine-time All-Star is adding 5.6 rebounds and 4.6 assists per game this year. He has recorded over 11.5 assists in 10 of the 24 games he has played. In games he has played without Embiid, he is averaging 5.8 assists and 5.5 rebounds. He has gone over 11.5 assists and rebounds in seven of these 11 games.
It is shaping up to be a lost season for the Pelicans, but there has been a bit of life of late with Zion Williamson returning to the floor. Injuries have been the story across the board this season with each of their notable talents facing some sort of ailment. Neither the Sixers nor the Pelicans are near where they hoped to be in the standings, but the pressure will be on George and the Sixers as they host the game and enter as 4.5-point favorites. George got his first taste of boo’s from the home crowd during Wednesday’s narrow victory over the Wizards and this feels like it could be a pivotal game for the future of his Philadelphia tenure. The shooting slump will work itself out, but look for him to continue to make his impact felt in other ways and record over 11.5 assists and rebounds without Embiid tonight.
Coby White Over 24.5 Points & Assists (-110)
The Chicago Bulls still hold an uncertain future as a franchise. Coby White’s breakout last season is possibly the most encouraging story surrounding the team and the North Carolina product has built off it this year. Overall he is averaging 18.5 points and 4.6 assists. White has recorded over 24.5 points and assists in 16 of the 35 games he has played this season.
Heading into tonight’s matchup the Bulls are set to host the Wizards. Washington enters with the worst record in the NBA, ranks last in opponent points per game, allows the most three-point attempts per game and ranks 20th in opponent field goal percentage. Chicago has increased their pace of play in recent games and ranks fourth in the league in this category over the past five games. The Wizards rank fourth in this category on the season, so expect plenty of transition opportunities in this game, in which White thrives.
White has benefitted from the increased pace of play in recent games and has eclipsed 24.5 combined points and assists in three of the past five starts. He finished with 19 points and five assists on Wednesday. Washington’s defensive struggles will create more offensive opportunities and White has played with great confidence of late. Look for him to remain in attack mode against one of the league’s bottom-feeders and for White to record over 24.5 points and assists again.
Keon Johnson Over 19.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-120)
The final matchup of tonight’s NBA slate will be between the Brooklyn Nets and Denver Nuggets. Brooklyn has made their desire to be in the driver’s seat for a top draft pick clear by trading away Dennis Schroder, Dorian Finney-Smith and Shake Milton with still about a month to go until the NBA trade deadline. The Nets are shifting into a youth movement and allowing some young players to play through their mistakes. Keon Johnson has been among the biggest beneficiaries of this opportunity.
On the season, Johnson is averaging just 8.0 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.5 assists across 21.1 minutes per game. However, his level of opportunity has expanded greatly following the roster shakeups. Across his past 10 games, Johnson is playing 31.0 minutes per night and averaging 13.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.6 assists. He has recorded over 19.5 combined points, rebounds and assists just five times this season with each of them coming over the past 18 games.
Denver plays an up-tempo style and ranks fourth in the NBA in pace over the past 25 games. Nikola Jokic has missed the previous two games due to illness and his status will be one to monitor tonight. But Keon Johnson sits in the sweet spot of having plenty of opportunity for minutes whether the game is within reach or not. He likely will not be pulled early if the game does slip to blowout territory and will be one of the primary producers if the game goes according to plan. Things are starting to click for Johnson as far as his processing of the game and confidence in himself. With the level of opportunity being higher than ever, count on him to deliver with over 19.5 points, rebounds and assists against this Western Conference opponent.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
