To the surprise of many, the 27-10 Boston Celtics are not the first seed in the East this season. They currently trail the second place Cleveland Cavaliers (33-4) by six games, but are certainly live to retake the lead later this season. If they want to jump up the standings, it will require Tatum to continue his excellent play thus far.
Tatum is putting up another MVP-level season with 28.1 PPG, a career-high 9.2 RPG, and a career-high 5.5 APG. He’s shooting 46.3% from the floor and 36.2% from three. Tonight he’ll face off against the Sacramento Kings, who have a league-average 16th ranked defensive rating and have gone 5-5 in their last ten games. They’ve also won five straight since firing Mike Brown. They’ll need to do some more work to catch up, but they’re only two games behind the current eighth seed Clippers.
Here are some of the best Jayson Tatum prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s matchup:
Best Jayson Tatum Prop Bet
PTS 25.5 (Over -120 / Under -110): In his career, Jayson Tatum has averaged 22.3 points against the Kings in 13 games dating back to 2017. If we look at a more recent sample that takes into account his improvement and ascension into an All-NBA wing, we’ll notice that he’s averaging 30.2 PPG in his last five games against Sacramento. I think his Points O/U is a bit too low tonight considering Tatum’s current form. Yes, the Celtics are deep as can be, but he’s still leading his team in FGA at 20.2 per game (Jaylen Brown trails closely behind at 19.2).
I presume that his O/U is a shade under his season average due to his previous five games, in which he’s only averaging 26.2 PPG, but three of those games were against top six defenses in the Thunder, Rockets, and Timberwolves. Even factoring in the defenses he wrestled against in these contests, he’s still hitting over tonight’s 25.5 mark. Tatum is close to matchup-proof, and even despite the occasional off-night, he’s a little better than this 25.5 O/U.
Furthermore, Tatum’s current shot diet will also afford him success against this defense. While Sacramento is doing a tremendous job of limiting opponent points in the paint, posting a league second-best mark of 44.5 points allowed per game, they are doing a poor job of limiting damage from the perimeter. The Kings are ranked 30th in three pointers made per game, a weakness that Tatum (and the Celtics as a whole) will be keen to punish. Tatum has taken more shots from beyond the arc than he has near the rim, and is launching a career-high 10.5 threes per game.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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