The NFL Playoffs get off to a great start this weekend, and the Sunday Night Football spot brings a nice NFC showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Washington Commanders in a rematch of their Week 1 matchup that Tampa won, 37-20. Check out the betting splits and most popular player prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook for the third and final matchup of the day on Sunday.
The Buccaneers are three-point home favorites over the Texans, with the point total set to 50.5.
Betting Splits
The bets are coming in pretty even on the moneyline, which makes sense with a small spread, but there’s a huge difference when looking at the handle. Only 55% of the total bets are on the Commanders, but 73% of the handle is on Jaylen Daniels’ squad, meaning that the best coming in on that side of things are signficantly bigger. That kind of split can also indicate that “sharp money” is on one side when there is such a disparity between the percentage of bets and the percentage of the handle.
Against the spread, things are almost split down the middle with the Commanders +3 getting slightly more action than the Buccaneers -3. The handle is a little more tilted to Washington but remains fairly evenly divided. The Commanders were 10-6-1 against the spread this season, while the Bucs were 10-7. Both teams didn’t cover last week, though, and the Bucs lost two of their last three against the spread.
The over/under on this game is the highest of the weekend at 50.5. When the two teams met back in Week 1, they combined for 57 points while both teams had average total points slightly over this total during the season. The Commanders averaged 51.5 total game points while the Bucs averaged 52.2 in their games. Both teams went over their point total regulary during the regular season, combining for 23 overs compared to just 11 unders. The handle is split 50-50, but the number of bets leans strongly to the over with 74% of bets coming in on the over.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for Saturday night’s game:
- Bucky Irving Anytime TD Scorer (-145)
- Mike Evans Anytime TD Scorer (+105)
- Terry McLaurin Anytime TD Scorer (+115)
- Jalen McMillan Anytime TD Scorer (+160)
- Zach Ertz Anytime TD Scorer (+255)
With the highest point total of the weekend and many bets still flocking to the over, it makes sense that the most popular plays are all touchdown scorers.
Bucky Irving has the shortest odds of finding the end zone in the matchup followed by Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan and Terry McLaurin, who are all in the top five. Interestingly, though, the fifth prop comes from further down the board where Zach Ertz is getting attention as a value longshot to find the end zone.
It makes sense that Irving has the shortest odds since the rookie has taken over the lead back role in Tampa Bay. He had 19 carries and five targets last week against the Saints while former-starter Rachaad White didn’t have a single target or carry. Irving found the end zone eight times this season with five touchdowns in the last eight weeks. He had good numbers with nine carries for 62 yards all the way back in Week 1 against the Commanders and will hope to have similar success in the rematch.
Mike Evans led the team with 11 touchdowns this season and had two scores against the Commanders in that Week 1 contest. He had two touchdowns in wins over the Panthers and Chargers down the stretch but did not find the end zone last week against the Saints.
After the midseason injury to Chris Godwin (ankle), Jalen McMillan has emerged as a regular scorer for the Bucs. He has found the end zone in five straight weeks and has at least four catches in each of those games.
On the Commanders’ side, McLaurin is the most popular option after scoring 13 touchdowns on the season, including seven touchdowns in the last six weeks. He didn’t score against Tampa Bay in Week 1 since he was held to two catches for 17 yards.
Ertz is a longer shot that is getting attention since he scored six touchdowns in the last seven weeks and has been more involved in the passing game since the season-ending injury to Noah Brown (ribs/kidney). Ertz has at least five targets in six of his last eight games.
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