The Bills host the Broncos on Sunday afternoon of the Wild Card Round. Here are the betting splits and most popular player prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Bills are an 8.5-point favorite over the Broncos with an over/under of 47.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting Splits
The Bills have been one of the best teams in the NFL all season and Josh Allen is the MVP favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. On the other side, the Broncos have done a great job of making it to the postseason with their rookie quarterback, Bo Nix. However, the public is backing the Bills to cover the large spread at home with the more experienced quarterback. The Bills are getting 88% of the moneyline bets and 61% of the spread bets. Very few bettors are willing to take a chance on the Broncos winning the game outright but the spread betting numbers are relatively tight. These have been two of the best ATS teams all season. Denver went 12-5 ATS this season and Buffalo went 10-7, so bettors have been profitable backing both of these teams this season.
The Bills are getting 72% of the spread betting handle despite getting just 61% of the bets. The public often likes to back favorites but even as a large favorite, bigger bettors are even stronger on Buffalo than the public. The 11% difference between the handle and bet counts indicates that a sizeable amount of bigger bets have been placed on the Bills. Bigger bettors are backing the NFL MVP favorite to take down the rookie quarterback in a convincing fashion in this game.
When it comes to the total, the public is backing the over heavily in this game. 72% of bets have come in on the over with 76% of the handle as well. It’s normal to see a larger percentage of the bets on the over but when the handle percentage is even heavier on the over, that indicates that bigger bettors agree with the public that the over is the play with this total. These have actually been two of the best teams all season when it comes to hitting overs. Buffalo is 11-6 to the over this season and Denver is 10-6-1 to the over. Despite Denver having an elite defense, their games have gone over at a 62.5% clip. Buffalo almost always puts up a big number so if Denver can keep up, this game should cruise over, making the public happy.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the five most popular player prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook for the Bills vs. Broncos matchup:
- James Cook Anytime TD (-130)
- Josh Allen Anytime TD (-125)
- Marvin Mims Jr. Anytime TD (+245)
- Courtland Sutton Anytime TD (+120)
- James Cook First Touchdown Scorer (+500)
The public is all-in on the Bills rushing attack. James Cook tied for the regular season lead in rushing touchdowns with 16 scores. Cook also had two receiving touchdowns to make that a total of 18 touchdowns in 16 games played. He is the most popular bet to record an anytime touchdown and the most popular bet to score the game’s first touchdown. Cook scored six touchdowns in the team’s final four games so the public is counting on him to keep that momentum going and get a touchdown on the board.
The public also backs Josh Allen to find the end zone in this game. Allen finished ninth in the NFL in rushing touchdowns this season and second among quarterbacks with 12 touchdowns. Allen really finished the season strong on the ground with nine of those touchdowns coming in the team’s final eight games. The public almost always backs Josh Allen and they are trusting him to run for a touchdown in this game against Denver.
On the Broncos side, they are trusting the passing game over the rushing game. While both Bills players’ touchdowns would likely come on rushes, the two Broncos players’ touchdowns would likely come through the air. When it comes to Marvin Mims Jr., the public is riding the hot hand. Before Week 17, Mims only had two touchdowns the entire season. However, he scored two touchdowns in each of the team’s final two games to get to six touchdowns on the season. Bo Nix might have found his new favorite target in Mims in the final weeks of the season and the public is counting on that to continue.
However, Nix’s favorite target all season has been Courtland Sutton and the public is betting on him to score as well. Sutton leads the Broncos in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns this season. He also scored a touchdown in each of the Broncos’ final two games of the regular season so in a sense, he is also the hot hand, in addition to Mims. This is Sutton’s seventh season with Denver and this is his first postseason game. The public is betting on Sutton to make his mark and find the end zone against the Bills.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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