The long grind of the NFL season is over and the playoffs are officially here. Saturday will kick off the NFL playoffs with two matchups.
At 4:30 p.m. ET, the Houston Texans will host the Los Angeles Chargers before the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens kick off at 8:00 p.m. ET.
One of the best parts of DraftKings is the opportunity to pick a new squad every week with their variety of DFS contests. While the stakes have changed as the number of games is cut down there are still plenty of options on the DFS slate. Here is my top lineup for the Saturday slate. I will have another article put out tomorrow giving my outlook on the Sunday matchups which include three games taking place.
Quarterbacks:
Lamar Jackson ($8,000)
Lamar Jackson rightfully enters Saturday as the highest-priced quarterback and this is worth paying the premium. While Justin Herbert ($6,000), C.J. Stroud ($5,500), and Russell Wilson ($5,300) each have their reasons for optimism, Jackson has played at an MVP level from start to finish this season and playoff success is the lone area lacking on his resume.
Jackson led all players in fantasy production this season based on DraftKings scoring which came out to 448.4 total fantasy points or 26.4 per week. For reference, only three other players (Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Burrow, and Baker Mayfield) were able to eclipse 400 fantasy points this season. The two-time MVP threw for 4,172 yards this season, 41 touchdowns, and just four interceptions. Jackson also added 915 rushing yards and four touchdowns with his legs this season.
The Steelers are the team that has given Jackson the most trouble this season and in his career. But their passing defense has looked concerning in recent weeks and Jackson is processing the game at a different level this year. Expect Pittsbugh to attempt to limit Jackson and Derrick Henry’s legs and force the quarterback to beat them with his arm. He is more than capable of doing exactly this and count on Jackson to be among the leaders of the best statistical output of the week.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon ($7,200)
Joe Mixon also enters with a healthy price tag trailing only Derrick Henry ($8,200) as the highest-priced running back. Mixon has a clear pathway to an impressive statistical output and has grown in his importance to the offense due to the injuries to the players around him. After spending the first seven seasons of his career with the Cincinnati Bengals, Mixon joined the Texans this offseason and had one of the best years of his career.
Overall, he carried the ball 245 times for 1,016 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns while adding 209 receiving yards and a touchdown through the air. He finished the season ranked seventh in fantasy points with 18.7 per game based on DraftKings scoring. Houston entered the season with a variety of offensive weapons but their options have limited as the season has progressed. Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell are each out for the season and Houston will lean more on their rushing attack than they are accustomed to.
Mixon will be well-rested as the Texans limited his opportunities to close the season with the division in hand. The Oklahoma product tallied just 14 rush attempts across the past two weeks and should be fully unleashed against the Chargers. Los Angeles has an impressive overall defense but ranks 14th in rushing yards allowed and 27th in net yards per rush attempt. Expect Mixon to be at the forefront of the attack for the Texans and for the star running back to make the most of his opportunity.
Jaylen Warren ($5,200)
While Najee Harris is the Steelers’ top running back by reputation, Jaylen Warren has quietly surpassed him in opportunity as the year has progressed. Looking at the season overall, Harris carried the ball 263 times for 1,043 rushing yards and six touchdowns while adding 36 receptions and 283 receiving yards. Warren received 120 carries for 511 rushing yards and a touchdown while adding 28 receptions for 310 yards through the air.
However, looking at the final few weeks of the season Warren saw increased opportunity and out-snapped Harris in four of the final five games. Warren is the more reliable passing down back which will be a factor in this game as the Steelers are significant underdogs. He also has been solid against the Ravens this year recording 68 yards from scrimmage in the first matchup and 92 yards in the second game.
Expect both running backs to be involved in the offensive attack. But there should be an increased opportunity for passing down chances which Warren will thrive. He also has handed the bulk of the red zone opportunities over the final few weeks. Expect him to outperform the $5,200 price point and be a larger part of the Steelers’ production than many are expecting.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins ($7,800)
Another position where it is worth paying top dollar is for Nico Collins as WR1. The Texans have had to veer from their wide-spread attack due to the injuries to Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell making Collins the clear-cut top wide receiver. Despite being limited to 12 games this season, Colling eclipsed 1,000 yards through the air for the second consecutive season. He also has been the clear-cut top option in the red zone all season and has tallied seven touchdowns with no other pass catcher logging more than three.
The Texans elected to rest most of their key players the final week of the season with the division in hand. Collins played just one drive in this game but logged five receptions for 36 yards and a touchdown in this drive. The Los Angeles Chargers have a strong overall defense which has allowed the fewest points per game this season, but they rank 12th in passing yards conceded compared to their top-ranked scoring defense against the run.
With Houston being limited in their number of reliable pass-catchers, expect Stroud to rely heavily on Collins this week. He stands 6-foot-4 with plenty of strength and is extremely capable both in the red zone and all over the field. He will see plenty of defensive attention but count on Collins to break free for a few notable plays and finish with a successful DFS output.
Ladd McConkey ($6,800)
One of the bigger surprises this season has been the emergence of rookie Ladd McConkey. The Georgia product has grown into the clear-cut top wide receiver on the Chargers roster. He has tallied at least two catches in every game this year and has three games with over 110 yards through the air. Overall he has tallied 82 receptions for 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns. He finished tied with Garrett Wilson for the 18th-best fantasy wide receiver based on DraftKings scoring at 15.6 points per game.
While the Chargers made a clear effort to build their identity as a run-first and defensive-minded approach. But as the season progressed they gave Justin Herbert more freedom and McConkey’s ability as a pass-catcher aided in this being possible. Houston ranks 30th in passing yards allowed this season. While McConkey is not what you picture for a red zone threat, he has seven touchdowns to his name this year, trailing only Quentin Johnston who has eight.
Expect McConkey to be at the forefront of the Chargers passing attack. He has proven ready for every opportunity thus far and has plenty of experience in big games dating back to his time in college. Count on McConkey to open even more eyes on the bigger stage and start to be recognized as one of the top-rising wide receiver talents in the NFL.
Flex
Justice Hill ($4,500)
While Derrick Henry ($8,200) will surely lead the charge in the Ravens’ rushing attack this week, Justice Hill has carved out a nice niche for himself in the Ravens offense as well. On the season overall, Hill has tallied 47 carries for 228 yards and a touchdown while adding 42 receptions for 383 yards and three touchdowns through the air.
His most important role is as a passing down back and expect this to be necessary in this matchup. Baltimore has had great success as a run-first team and expect Pittsburgh to stack the box forcing Lamar Jackson to beat them with his arm. Utilizing Hill out of the backfield is an intriguing counter to this. The Oklahoma State product missed the final two weeks of the season due to a concussion but has been a full participant at practice all week and does not carry an injury designation.
This is more of a riskier play, but Hill’s impact in the passing game should be enough to carve out a positive performance. He has received at least one carry in every game this season and at least one reception in all but one game. While this is likely the most talented Ravens team he has been a part of, Hill has been with the Ravens for the entirety of his career. Expect him to be well aware of the importance of this playoff run and for him to be ready to make the most of his opportunity when it arrives.
John Metchie III ($3,900)
While Nico Collins will surely lead the Texans in the production of the passing game, he cannot do it singlehandedly. Houston will need someone to step up and John Metchie III is worth taking a flyer one. He is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury, but Metchie III was a full participant to end of the week and should be in line for a full workload.
On the season overall, Metchie III has tallied just 24 receptions for 254 yards and a touchdown. However, nearly all of this production has come in the second half of the season after the injuries stacked up. Across the final seven games of the season, he tallied 20 of these receptions for 218 yards with the lone touchdown occurring across this stretch.
Los Angeles has a strong defense but one big play can change the entire outlook of this game. Expect Mitchie III to be in line for this opportunity and for this especially to be the case if the defense is heavily shifted over to Nico Collins. Look for him to have his signature playoff moment and take a flyer by plugging him into your DFS lineups.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz ($3,600)
Coming from the same mindset, expect Dalton Schultz to see an increased opportunity in the Chargers offense. He has been a consistent pass catcher throughout his career and played up to his standard this season. He has tallied 53 receptions for 532 yards and two touchdowns this season. Both of his touchdowns also occurred over the final five weeks of the season.
Looking at the Chargers’ defense, they allow an average of 5.4 receptions and 45.6 yards to tight ends. Schultz has logged 66% or more of the offensive snaps in every game this season excluding last week in which the majority of the starters rested. C.J. Stroud will need the complimentary pass-catchers to step up and expect Schultz to do his part this week.
Defense & Special Teams
Houston Texans Defense & Special Teams ($2,700)
Sometimes when choosing defenses it makes more sense to pick against teams the defense is playing rather than the team you are choosing. The Los Angeles Chargers have come into form as the season has progressed but still rank 11th in scoring and 20th in yards on the season. Their ideal blueprint for winning games is to take the lead and then dominate with their running game and defense.
While this is an effective plan, it is not overly harmful to opposing defenses from a DFS perspective. Expect this to be the lower-scoring matchup out of the two games. Houston also ranks fifth in the league in turnovers forced which could create some positive points. Saving a little money for other positions and taking the second-cheapest defense on the night may be the best approach in the Saturday slate.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
