In what’s shaping up to be a bit of a pesky-on-paper two-seed-versus-seven-seed matchup, the Denver Broncos and their gymnastically-talented defense will travel—and that defense does travel—to Orchard Park, New York to face the Buffalo Bills. Of course, Orchard Park means more than just the Bills: it means the elements, and the lake effect, and Bills Mafia. It means you’re headed to the dragon’s lair; Buffalo is Josh Allen’s city. The threat of new sheriffs in town is one the Bills are looking to handily dispatch.
But Bo Nix & co. aren’t an outfit to sniff at. There’s a bit of Josh Allen in the young rookie from Denver, no? Toughness-driven mobility, a rifle arm (massive advantage in weaponry to Allen, there, however), and some way-above-league-average football IQ. And, sure, Josh Allen can both do it all himself, or be the chef at the Buffalo buffet, where everybody eats. Famously. But this Denver defense is so good it could threaten to funnel Allen’s options. Bo Nix is just enough a Wild Card Weekend’s wild card to pull off something special.
In any case, it’s one of the more fun two-versus-seven matchups I can remember in the Wild Card era of the NFL. It’s shaping up to be a high-noon shootout—defensive though it may be—on Sunday afternoon.
Let’s take a look at how the two teams stack against each other, evaluate some prop markets, and make an educated prediction, here, as to how this game might shake out.
To level-set: currently, on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Bills are favored by eight-and-a-half points, with the Broncos at +350 to upset Buffalo and win outright.
Analysis
When you take a look at rbdsm stats‘s Team Tiers graph from the 2024 regular season, you see that this matchup is truly going to be a matchup of two teams who, in their respective best phases of their football team, are among the league’s most elite.
The Bills and the Broncos both exist almost at both extremes of the upper-right quadrant: the Bills are just behind the Ravens in offensive EPA/play (x-axis), and the Broncos reign atop the entire league in defensive EPA/play (y-axis). That might, in graph parlance, be the way one would describe a matchup between the unstoppable force and the immovable object. The Broncos defense set the single-season record for sacks (63); Josh Allen and his offensive line, however, allowed the fewest in the NFL (14).
It might be the case that this is the narrative leading up to Sunday afternoon’s kickoff. Buffalo’s offense always finds a way. Denver’s defense always outmans, outguns, surrounds, and smothers its opponents. Where’s the X-factor that moves the needle in one team’s direction? Better question: to which team does that gamebreaker belong?
The main plotline: Buffalo’s offense versus Denver’s defense
Let’s stick to the archetype, shall we? The driving narrative of this game indeed will be how Josh Allen can combat Zach Allen, Nic Bonito, and Jonathon Cooper up front—who together combined for 32.5 of the Denver’s 63 sacks. He’ll have to do that while balancing a laser-focused approach to Patrick Surtain II and Denver’s secondary, which was fifth in the NFL in defensive passing DVOA.
It’s possible the answer is as simple as this: the Broncos win the game if they can sack Josh Allen in key downs and distances. Why wouldn’t that be central conflict, the battle on the hilltop? Sacking Josh Allen at all is something with which literally every other Bills opponent struggled. It stands to reason that if the Broncos can solve that puzzle, they can beat the Bills.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Buffalo leaned on James Cook, at least to start, in this game. The best way to beat a good pass rush—or at least to keep one honest—is with a better running game, and the Bills have that. Over the last nine weeks of the season, they’re third in the NFL in both rushing EPA/play and rushing success rate.
The secondary, potentially-sexier plotline: Denver’s offense versus Buffalo’s defense
Is there a wilder potential X-factor in this Wild Card weekend than Bo Nix and the Denver offense? They’re hot off an absolute bludgeoning (38-0) of the Kansas City Chiefs’ backup squad in Week 18, and we know just how much it behooves an organization to be blazing just as they’re about to roll the regular season into their first playoff game.
Over the last nine weeks of the season, the Broncos’ offense was seventh in the NFL in EPA/play, just behind the red-hot Cincinnati Bengals:
While their rushing EPA/play was just below league-average, their EPA/dropback was an absolutely elite fifth in the NFL during that timespan. Buffalo, of course, with No. 17 at the helm, was second.
FTN Fantasy has Buffalo’s defensive rushing DVOA at eighth in the league, and their defensive passing DVOA at fourteenth in the league. More league-average, there, through the air on defense.
Check out where Bo Nix falls on this graph representing EPA/play- & completion-percentage-over-expectation (CPOE)-based efficiency for all qualified NFL quarterbacks between Weeks 10-18:
Bo Nix ranks exactly seventh in this category, the very same ranking as Denver’s AFC playoff seeding. But, make no mistake: just as, if the Bills win on offense, it will be because of a gameplan architected and executed by Josh Allen, the same goes for the Broncos.
Bo Nix will need to be operating at his absolute ceiling—around which other quarterbacks like Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson, and Tua Tagovailoa who all lost to the Bills this year operate—in order to beat the Buffalo at home. With an alpha receiver like Courtland Sutton on the rise, a rather lightning-in-a-bottle gadget player in Marvin Mims, and two young wideouts in Devaughn Vele and Troy Franklin out there, Nix might just have the right squad to shock the world.
Verdict
Prediction & Outcome
Right now, the Bills are favored by eight-and-a-half points on DraftKings Sportsbook. And Broncos +8.5 just feels too juicy, doesn’t it? Surely this is a traveling defense that can hold the two-seed Bills within a touchdown, no?
And yet, 72% of the handle and 61% of bets are on Bills to cover, according to our betting splits page:
I think the Bills turn the ball over twice in this game. I’m not sure that’s going to be because Denver’s pass rush gets home for critical sacks. Maybe just one. But if the defense can force one Allen interception and a James Cook/Ray Davis fumble, that’s enough for me to be convinced the Broncos can cover this spread and go with the dogs to cover.
And, I’ll do you one better. I said in my DKN Wild Card Weekend predictions roundtable that I think the Broncos are the only low-seed capable of a seismic upset this weekend. I’m taking the Broncos to win on the road at +330 on the moneyline, and that’ll be reflected in my predicted outcome. However, I still think the most prudent bet is simply a straight wager for one-to-one-and-a-half units on the Broncos to cover the +8.5.
Best bet: Broncos +8.5
Outcome: Broncos 24, Bills 20
Best prop bet market to watch: A Josh Allen / James Cook Anytime TD SGP
The Bills aren’t a team I’m trying to evaluate for yardage. As outlined above, they’re either going to spread the ball, or rely on Josh Allen’s already-bloated yardage markets to churn their offense down the field.
Instead, Allen tends to hit paydirt against aggressive defenses, if at low yardage totals (see his games against the Ravens and Chiefs, for example). And James Cook simply can’t be stopped. Parlaying them each to hit the end zone not only feels smart, but at good value: +238 is nothing to sniff at for two guys who routinely hit paydirt at home this year.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
