After an instant classic last night between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers, the NBA will have high standards to live up to with Thursday’s seven-game slate. With nearly half the league in action, DraftKings Sportsbook bettors will have no shortage of options to make their picks. Here are my top bets for Thursday’s games.
First, let’s take a look at the full slate:
- Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic, 7 p.m. EST
- Golden State Warriors at Detroit Pistons, 7 p.m. EST
- Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 p.m. EST
- Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 p.m. EST
- Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies, 8 p.m. EST
- Miami Heat at Utah Jazz, 9 p.m. EST
- Atlanta Hawks at Phoenix Suns, 9 p.m. EST
Detroit Pistons -2 (-120)
I don’t know what’s happened to the Golden State Warriors, but their 12-3 start feels like a thing of the past — the very distant past. Since that hot opening stretch, the Warriors are 6-15, a .286 winning percentage that would be the sixth-worst in the league across the full season. In its last 15 games, Golden State has been outscored by 6.2 points per 100 possessions, the seventh-worst rate in basketball. Its last two losses — a 30-point blowout to the Sacramento Kings without De’Aaron Fox and a 16-point loss to the Miami Heat without Jimmy Butler — were particularly dreadful. Meanwhile, Detroit has won eight of its last 10 — with the league’s ninth-best net rating across that span — and Cade Cunningham should be in line to make his first All-Star appearance.
Darius Garland O30.5 Points + Assists (-115)
After he struggled in Cleveland’s win over the Thunder last night — the Cavaliers’ 11th straight — shooting guard Donovan Mitchell will have a well-deserved rest. With Mitchell sidelined for just the second time this season, point guard Darius Garland will become Cleveland’s leading man. While most of the attention for the Cavaliers’ historic season has been focused on Mitchell, Garland should attract plenty of All-Star consideration, as he’s averaging 20.4 points and 6.7 assists per game while being just three made field goals away from joining the elite 50-40-90 club.
Garland will have a fairly exploitable matchup tonight against a Raptors team that, after moving on from Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby last season, has finally chosen a direction. Toronto has been expectedly dreadful this season, sporting an 8-29 record and the third-worst net rating in basketball (minus-7.9). The Raptors have especially struggled on defense, allowing the fourth-most points (118.8) and 11th-most assists (26.8) per game to opposing players. Toronto is especially thin at guard; starters Immanuel Quickley and Gradey Dick are both significantly below-average defenders.
Utah Jazz Moneyline (+180)
To make no mistake about it, the Jazz have been terrible this year. However, in its past 10 games, Utah has started to show signs of life, winning four of 10 and outscoring opponents by 1.9 points per 100 possessions, the 12th-best rate in basketball. Sure, that net rating is hugely buoyed by a 36-point win on January 4, but tonight, the Jazz will face the same team that they decimated that night, the Miami Heat, who still won’t have the suspended Jimmy Butler.
I don’t expect Utah to come out with another dominant victory; Bam Adebayo is unlikely to score four points on zero-for-six shooting again. Still, the Heat are clearly frazzled by the Butler fiasco and, though a double-overtime loss against the suddenly competitive Sacramento Kings and a solid win over the suddenly non-competitive Golden State Warriors were impressive, Miami looks to be in serious need of a rebuild. Although the Jazz have been better away from the Delta Center this season, Salt Lake City’s elevation (4,265′) has historically given Utah a fairly significant home-court advantage.
Kevin Durant 30+ Points (+145)
Tonight should present an excellent opportunity for Durant to post his first 30-point game of 2025, given the Hawks’ woes on defense. Atlanta has bottom-ten ranks in opponent points, rebounds, assists, and steals, partially because it plays at the league’s second-fastest pace. Plus, Phoenix recently changed its starting lineup, pulling Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkić in favor of Ryan Dunn and Mason Plumlee, two lower-usage players, which should increase Durant’s shots in the long run.
Devin Booker might find himself stymied by the one positive defensive player in Atlanta’s starting five, shooting guard Dyson Daniels, who leads the league by huge margins in both deflections per game (6.6) and steals per game (3.1). Durant will benefit from Jalen Johnson’s shoulder injury as well; Johnson probably would’ve been his primary defender, and opponents shoot 3.7 percentage points worse than usual against him. Instead, Durant will be guarded more frequently by first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher, who allows opponents to shoot 3.1 percentage points better than usual.
Orlando Magic +6.5 (-110)
There’s no reason why the Magic should be as competitive as they have been without Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Moritz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs. Not a single player in their current starting lineup even averages 10 points per game. But Orlando has kept on chugging along behind the strength of the league’s second-best defense, holding the New York Knicks — the league’s third-best offense — to just 94 points in a shocking win on January 6. Sure, Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns missed the game with a knee injury, but any other member of New York’s starting lineup would be the best player on the Magic.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves haven’t been convincing; a seven-point win over the New Orleans Pelicans, even with a healthy Zion Williamson, wasn’t a particularly impressive performance. Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley are still showing signs of their age, Donte DiVincenzo still hasn’t found his shot, and Julius Randle is still a bad fit with Anthony Edwards — who’s been brilliant all season. Orlando has a rest advantage and home-court advantage, so I wouldn’t count them out.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is grant-afseth) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
