The Chiefs and Lions earned the number one seeds in their respective conferences, so they get to rest this week and watch all the minions battle to move on. Sup, Amon! The first slate begins on Saturday with two games, so two teams will be gone while the other two get to see another dawn. I will try my best to navigate this landscape. Please, Lord. Help me not to be a moron. I’ll break things down to the neutron with the help of chips from Micron. If that doesn’t work, I’ll board a flight on Air Nippon to Taiwan. Exposing stats to a photon. Then massaging them like a professional at the salon. May the concoction be as delicious as a dish from Sichuan. Elevating us all to the DraftKings pantheon.
DraftKings Sportsbook has LAC -3 over HOU on the road, with the total at 41.5. BAL is -9.5 over PIT at home with the total at 43.5.
DISCLAIMER: This piece was written on Thursday, so it won’t factor in injuries or lineup changes that occur closer to Saturday.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Saturday Special [$500K to 1st] (Sat).
Quarterback
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans ($6,000) – I usually auto-click on Lamar Jackson if he’s on the slate, due to his dual-threat ability, consistency, and potential ceiling. So it pains me to go in another direction, but I think it is the way.
In two games against the Steelers this season, Jackson has produced 15.88 and 21.48 FPTS. The thing I noticed was Pittsburgh dedicating a guy to Lamar on the read-option every single time, forcing him to hand it off to Derrick Henry. Baltimore made some adjustments from the first meeting, and I think Pittsburgh adjusts to those adjustments. My early lean is that this game is tighter and lower-scoring than expectations.
Herbert is $2,000 cheaper and is coming off a 31.04-FPTS game. The floor is much lower than Lamar for sure, and it’s well within the range of outcomes that he ends up in the teens, but he’s thrown at least two touchdowns in each of the last four games, with one of those against a tough Broncos defense.
Houston has been good in pass defense, posting an EPA per dropback of -0.05, but they’ve allowed 31 passing touchdowns, the third-most in the NFL.
I think this game has a chance to be a back-and-forth affair.
Other Options – Lamar Jackson ($8,000), CJ Stroud ($5,500)
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Running Back
Stud
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers ($8,200) – As mentioned in the Lamar section, the Steelers have sent a defender right at Lamar on any read-option plays, forcing him to hand it off. In Week 11, Henry rushed 13 times for 65 yards and a touchdown. In Week 16, he received 24 carries for 162 yards. While Pittsburgh will likely make some adjustments, I think their basic premise of keeping Lamar in check will stay true, which should continue to allow Henry to do his thing.
Value
Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans ($4,300) – Edwards kind of stinks, and he’s topped double-digit FPTS just once this season. Granted, he rushed 14 times for 68 yards and two touchdowns against the Broncos in Week 16, so there is some upside and he’s super cheap. JK Dobbins is questionable, so there’s a chance Edwards dominates the snaps on Saturday.
Other Options – Jaylen Warren ($5,200), Najee Harris ($5,000)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans ($6,800) – If I like Herbert, then I better like his pass catchers because he’s not going to be doing it with his legs. McConkey leads the Chargers with 112 targets. He’s scored double-digit FPTS in the last seven games, with three over 20 FPTS.
Other Options – Nico Collins ($7,800), George Pickens ($6,600)
Value
Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans ($4,800) – If I like Herbert, then I bet….You get the picture. Johnston hauled in 13 of 14 targets for 186 yards in Week 18, good for 34.6 FPTS. He is second on the team with 91 targets and received eight, six, 10 and seven in the prior four weeks. Johnston is 6-foot-3, 208 pounds and runs a 4.57 40. He’s in the 97th percentile for burst score and 89th percentile in catch radius. Johnston is officially listed as questionable with an illness and hip issue. If he’s unable to go, then I’d insert DJ Chark, who should elevate the depth chart.
Other Options – Rashod Bateman ($5,000), Calvin Austin III ($4,000), Diontae Johnson ($3,500), DJ Chark ($3,100) if Johnston is out
Tight End
Stud
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,700) – Andrews has scored a touchdown in six straight games. He’s also unsurprisingly exceeded 10 FPTS in all of those contests. In the two games with Pittsburgh, he caught four of six targets for 37 yards and a touchdown in Week 16 while hauling in two of three targets for 22 yards in Week 11. He finished with 4.2 FPTS in that one.
Value
Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,200) – I think most will click on Andrews if selecting a tight end from the Ravens since he’s scored in six straight. I do like Likely because he’s played at least 66% of the snaps in each of the last four games and is a threat to score as well. The Steelers have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points on average to tight ends. In two games against Pittsburgh, Likely caught four of five targets for 75 yards in Week 11 and hauled in all three targets for 29 yards and a touchdown in Week 16. Likely is much cheaper than Andrews and provides excellent leverage against Andrews lineups.
Other Options – Will Dissly ($3,400)
Defense/Special Teams
Ravens DST vs. Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,700) – Moving Kyle Hamilton to safety has been a boon for the Ravens defense. Since Week 11 after the move was made, the Ravens have allowed over 20 points just once. The unit has put up double-digit FPTS in each of the last three games, with one of those against the Steelers. Pittsburgh has struggled on offense, failing to score over 17 points in each of the last four games.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
