It’s one of the best rivalries in football and we’re blessed to see it twice a season. But sometimes, every once and a while, we get an opportunity for a third meeting between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
These are two teams headed in opposite directions in terms of recent play, yet you truly feel like anything can happen when these two squads face-off. With that in mind, let’s break down this Wild Card matchup from a Showdown perspective.
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Pick
Derrick Henry ($18,300 CP) – T’is the season. The Ravens obviously acquired Henry to make themselves a better team for the entirety of this campaign, but with the way Lamar Jackson ($12,000) has struggled in recent playoff action and with the weather getting colder, now’s the time for Henry to truly shine. The running back was dominant during the final three weeks of the regular season, averaging 23.7 carries and 149.0 rushing yards per contest. Unsurprisingly, this is a stretch where Henry was also producing 28.2 FPTS per game. Despite not being overly involved in the passing attack, Henry finished the year ranking fourth in PPR fantasy points (338.4) and PPR points per snap (0.53). He ranked second in rushing yards (1,921) and first in rushing touchdowns (16), as well. The Steelers were fantastic at defending the run throughout the season, yet Henry was able to amass 162 yards on 24 attempts in Week 16. In a script where the Ravens are massive home favorites, I’d expect the veteran RB to see all the volume he can handle.
FLEX Picks
Mark Andrews ($6,400) – I mean, how could you not be enticed by Andrews at this point? The veteran TE got off to an incredibly slow start this season — he literally put up back-to-back goose eggs in Week 3 and Week 4 — which caused some to speculate whether or not Andrews was washed. I can confirm he isn’t. While Andrews isn’t seeing the overall target volume we’ve become accustomed to is years past, he is maximizing his opportunities. The 29-year-old has turned a team-high 15 red zone targets into a league-best 11 red zone receiving touchdowns. Quibble with his ability to sustain that efficiency all you want, the fact of the matter is that Andrews has found the end zone is six straight games. He’s also coming off a season-high eight targets in Week 18. That was a game that Zay Flowers ($9,000; knee) was limited to 14 offensive snaps. If he’s inactive against Pittsburgh, Andrews is a steal at this price.
Ravens D/ST ($5,800) – Baltimore’s defense wasn’t as amazing as it usually is this season — likely a product of losing Mike McDonald to the Seahawks. Still, the Ravens were able to get after opposing QBs, finishing Week 18 with 54 sacks, which was the second-most of any team. In DFS, sacks are the lifeblood of defense’s viability, as that pressure is what creates turnovers and the possibility of a defensive touchdown. It also helps when you’re going up against an offense that’s clearly leaking oil. The Steelers backed into the playoffs with four consecutive losses and a big part of the issue was the squad’s complete inability to score. To wit, since Week 16, Pittsburgh is averaging only 14.7 points per game and 290.7 yards per game. Both of those rank in the bottom 10 of the NFL. Woof.
Pat Freiermuth ($5,400) – I’m a little torn on how the Steelers’ aerial attack is going to play out in the Wild Card round. On the one hand, George Pickens ($10,200) had one of the most underwhelming performances I’ve ever seen in Week 18. On the other, he’s highly skilled and Russell Wilson ($9,400) might try and over-correct with surplus volume against the Ravens. One thing is certain, though: Pickens is so, so expensive. That’s why I’m leaning towards Freiermuth. Since the beginning of Week 15, Freiermuth has been Pittsburgh’s No. 1 target. Part of that is Pickens only being available for two games within that span, yet the numbers are pretty eye-opening. In their last four contests, Freiermuth leads the Steelers by a wide margin in targets (26), receptions (21) and receiving yards (183). He’s also the lone Pittsburgh player to catch a touchdown in this stretch. At half the price of his teammate, Freiermuth is simply the better asset.
Fades
Najee Harris ($7,000) – It’s hard to find much to like about Harris in this spot. Really, I’d say the same about Jaylen Warren ($7,200), though I at least expect him to be involved in the Steelers’ passing attack. Harris hasn’t rushed for 100 yards since all the way back in Week 8. He hasn’t seen more than 16 carries in a single game since Week 11 and he hasn’t logged a 50% snap share since Week 12. There’s just nothing overly appealing about the former first-round pick’s recent role or production. He’s completely touchdown or bust. In fact, in the last four contests where Harris hasn’t found the end zone, he’s averaging a putrid 6.2 FPTS. As for matchup, the Ravens are surrendering the fewest opponent rushing yards per game (80.1) and the fifth-fewest FPTS per game to opposing backfields. Harris’ fantasy outlook in incredibly bleak.
THE OUTCOME
I’ll be honest, this spread is higher than I assumed it would be early in the week and my initial instinct is to back the Steelers with the points. Divisional games tend to be tight, let alone when it’s the third time two teams have seen each other since November. Pittsburgh was also 11-6 ATS this season. The Ravens are the better team and the Steelers are trending in a terrible direction, but I think their defense will do enough to keep this game within two scores. Backdoor cover, anyone?
Final Score: Baltimore 28, Pittsburgh 20
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
