The semifinals of the College Football Playoff are here and it starts with a great matchup between Penn State and Notre Dame. Here is how to compete in DFS for Thursday’s matchup.
DraftKings has one of their biggest college football DFS contests of the year with the CFB Showdown $300K Semi-Final Kickoff with $100,000 going to first place. You can enter the contest for just $25.
Captain’s Pick
Riley Leonard ($19,200 CP) – Riley Leonard has led Notre Dame to the CFP semifinals with his great quarterback play over the last couple of months. Leonard started slow this season but really started to grow in confidence and become the player this offense needed down the stretch. Leonard is an elite athlete and a great runner, making him a great DFS asset. Leonard has 18 passing touchdowns and 15 rushing touchdowns this season, so he is finding the end zone on the ground almost as often as he is throwing touchdowns. He had an amazing 80 rushing yards in the quarterfinal game against Georgia, making it another great fantasy game for Leonard.
Leonard has double-digit carries in 11 out of 14 games this season, so he is consistently running the ball at a very high rate for a quarterback. The Notre Dame offensive line has also been great and Leonard has never suffered more than two sacks in a single game. Penn State has a great defense, but one metric where they have struggled a bit is defensive rushing success rate. They rank 29th nationally in defensive rushing success rate, which means they will give up some short chunk runs that allow opposing offenses to stay ahead of the chains. That is why they rank 54th nationally in average third down distance as a defense. Leonard should be able to consistently pick up small chunks on the ground on both scrambles and designed runs, which should add up to a big rushing yards total at the end of the game.
UTIL Picks
Studs
Drew Allar ($11,800) – Drew Allar has really advanced in the Penn State offense this season. In his freshman campaign in 2023, he was much more of a game-manager and was told not to make mistakes. This season, he is in full control of the offense and is consistently making big-time plays. Allar has a 24-to-7 TD/INT ratio and had an amazing three touchdown performance in the quarterfinal game against Boise State. Allar is also athletic and can use his legs, especially in the red zone. Allar has six rushing touchdowns this season on top of his 24 passing touchdowns. Allar’s chances of scoring a rushing touchdown are even further increased for this game because backup QB Beau Pribula left the program before the CFP started. Penn State often used Pribula as a running threat close to the goal line, but now Allar is running those packages. Notre Dame’s defense is 90th nationally in defensive rushing success rate so Allar should be able to pick up some chunks on the ground against them to rack up fantasy points.
Nicholas Singleton ($9,600) – Penn State has one of the best running back duos in the country with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. However, Singleton has emerged as the star in recent weeks. Singleton had 148 all-purpose yards and a touchdown against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game, 87 rushing yards and a touchdown against Boise State and 90 yards and a touchdown against SMU. Notre Dame has the No. 1 ranked pass defense in the country by EPA/pass. However, they rank 46th nationally in defensive EPA/rush and 90th nationally in defensive rushing success rate. They can be attacked on the ground and Nicholas Singleton has shown that he can hit those explosive runs to beat a vulnerable defense. It should be a big night for Singleton against the Irish.
Value
Jordan Faison ($6,600) – Beaux Collins is Notre Dame’s leading receiver on the season, but Jordan Faison has broken out as Riley Leonard’s go-to target in recent weeks. Faison is still at a relatively discounted price because of his season-long numbers. However, in the College Football Playoff, Faison has led the Irish in receptions and receiving yards in both of their games. Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love is expected to play, but is nowhere near 100% for this game after leaving the Georgia game with an injury. If he isn’t as productive as normal, that could lead to a more pass-heavy approach from Notre Dame’s offense. Penn State’s defense is also more vulnerable to the pass, ranking 25th nationally in defensive EPA/pass compared to sixth nationally in defensive EPA/rush. If Notre Dame looks to pass more, Faison should be on the receiving end of a lot of targets from Riley Leonard.
Mitch Jeter ($4,600) – Notre Dame kicker Mitch Jeter has had a rollercoaster of a season. He started the year with a great 3-for-3 performance in Notre Dame’s win over Texas A&M. However, Jeter suffered an injury in the middle of the season and had to miss several games. The backup kicker that Notre Dame brought in for Jeter was performing really poorly, so they rushed Jeter back from injury and when he first returned, he was clearly not healthy enough to be kicking. He would be limping off after kicks and planting oddly before kicks. Jeter only attempted one field goal in Notre Dame’s final three regular season games, and he missed it. Jeter missed another kick against Indiana in the first round of the CFP, but also hit a 49-yarder to prove that he was back. Then in the Georgia game, Jeter went 3-for-3 on field goals, all from 40+ yards. Jeter also resumed his kick-off duties, meaning he is all the way healthy again. Despite the injury issues, Jeter is a perfect 50-for-50 on extra points this season. At full health, Jeter should get the chance to nail some field goals against Penn State.
Omari Evans ($3,800) – Just like Jordan Faison for Notre Dame, Omari Evans has emerged as a breakout contributor in the College Football Playoff. Evans only had three touchdowns the entire regular season, but has scored a touchdown in each of Penn State’s two playoff games. Evans is a speedster and a deep-ball threat when he gets behind the defense. He is averaging an incredible 19.8 yards per catch this season and his touchdown in the quarterfinals against Boise State came on a 38-yard deep ball. Notre Dame has an elite secondary, but they play very aggressive coverage on the outside with their corners. In the last round, Georgia was able to hit a couple of deep shots when they got over-aggressive. If Notre Dame does that again, Drew Allar will look to hit Evans on a couple of balls over the top. If Evans can just catch a couple of those balls and find the end zone again, it should be a productive fantasy performance for him, especially at this price.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
