We’re down to the final four in the College Football Playoff. Notre Dame and Penn State will square off on Thursday night in the Orange Bowl in Miami, and then Ohio State and Texas will face each other in Arlington on Friday night in the Cotton Bowl. Let’s breakdown the Orange Bowl below.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State (Orange Bowl) January 9 at 7:30pm ET
The total opened too high in this game, at 50 or higher at many shops, and has been bet down accordingly. As of Thursday morning, the total sits at 45.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, which feels more appropriate. I was able to get in on the under at 47/47.5, but didn’t get it out as a play. If it somehow rises back up to 47, that’s the number I would fire on an under here, but I highly doubt this gets any higher. Generally, you don’t want to be betting teasers in college football, but I think you could work a same game tease into this one potentially.
These are two terrific defenses, and we’ve seen that on display in the CFP. Both teams rank top-five in the country on the season in points per game allowed, with Notre Dame No. 2 (13.6) and Penn State No. 5 (15.8). The Irish essentially held Indiana to three points until garbage time playing their CFP opener at home, but the Hoosiers were able to put two late touchdowns on the board in a game that was already over. They followed it up surrendering just 10 points to Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.
The Nittany Lions have played inferior competition thus far, but allowed just 10 points to SMU and 14 points to Boise State in CFP play. Both offenses are going to focus on running the ball and limiting mistakes, but it’s going to be strength on strength going against terrific run defenses. Even in the Sugar Bowl, ND’s 23 points were a bit flukey — 14 points coming on consecutive plays to end the first half (a one-play drive on a short field off a crucial UGA turnover) and begin the second half (a kick return). The offenses was unable to generate a pure touchdown drive against a good Georgia defense.
I initially leaned to the Irish in this game, under the thought process that the matchup was pretty much even, but ND has the coaching advantage. But the more I look into this game, I do feel Penn State has an advantage through the air. Drew Allar is the better quarterback, and Notre Dame has shown it can be had in the secondary — the Irish are allowing 270 passing yards per game over the last three.
So strong lean to the under, and a lean to PSU for me on Thursday night. I’ll tease the two together for a smaller play.
The Play: Penn State +7.5/UNDER 51.5 (-120) 1-unit
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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