The Steelers have had a fascinating season. They switched quarterbacks from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson, despite a good start to the season. Wilson found immediate success and the Steelers went on a winning run and looked to be the favorites to win the AFC North. However, they lost their final four games of the regular season to finish 10-7 with the 6-seed in the AFC. In the Wild Card Round, they will be facing the team that beat them out for the AFC North, their rival Baltimore Ravens.
The Steelers are +9000 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win the Super Bowl, tied with the Texans for the worst odds of any team in the field. The Steelers are massive underdogs just to make it out of the first round against their division rivals, the Baltimore Ravens. However, Mike Tomlin and Russell Wilson, the two key figures of this team, both have boatloads of playoff experience and could have something special in the tank to make a Cinderella run. This is a comprehensive preview of their status entering this game, their outlook for the postseason and for the Wild Card Round against Baltimore.
Team Breakdown
The Steelers have had three distinct phases to their season. They started the season with Justin Fields as their quarterback while Russell Wilson dealt with a minor injury. Fields played solid, leading the Steelers to a 4-2 record. However, once Russell Wilson was fully healthy, Mike Tomlin pivoted away from Justin Fields despite the good start. He was criticised for the move but those doubters were silenced when Wilson went 6-1 in his first seven starts. The Steelers then set at 10-3 and at the top of the AFC North. The Ravens had picked up a couple of bad losses and the Steelers were favored to win the AFC North.
However, the Steelers then entered the third phase of their season, which was the four-game losing streak they went on to end the regular season. To be fair to Pittsburgh, they lost to three of the best teams in the league, the Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs. They also lost to the Bengals whose season was on the line while the Steelers had nothing to play for. So, while it was a bad end to the season that cost them the division, the downfall of the team might be a bit overblown.
The lack of offensive weapons has held the Steelers back this season. Russell Wilson has not always been great but he doesn’t have a lot to work with either. George Pickens is their clear WR1 but he is a very volatile player, in every sense of the word. Pickens looked like a breakout star with big performances almost weekly in the first half of the season. However, Pickens began having attitude issues both on and off the field which seemed to have a negative impact on his play. Pickens then missed three games with an injury and has not been as productive since returning from that injury, including having one catch for zero yards against the Bengals to end the regular season.
Outside of Pickens, TE Pat Freiermuth is the team’s second-leading receiver and while he is a reliable option, he is not an explosive receiver. The Steelers’ other options at wide receiver have shown flashes but none have been consistent secondary options behind Pickens to pick up the slack when Pickens is struggling. They also have no real star at running back. Najee Harris has turned in a commendable 1,000-yard rushing season but Harris does not break a lot of explosive runs and he struggles to find the end zone, recording only six rushing touchdowns this season.
The Steelers’ biggest flaw on offense this season has been their red zone production. They finished the regular season 29th in the NFL in red zone touchdown scoring percentage, ahead of only the Giants, Cowboys and Patriots. Being held to field goals has led to multiple of the Steelers’ losses and it is highly unlikely that they will upset the Ravens in the Wild Card Round without scoring touchdowns when they get in the red zone. The lack of offensive weapons means that OC Arthur Smith might need to get creative to find ways to score against a Baltimore defense that has been on fire to end the regular season.
Wild-Card Round Prediction
The Ravens are 9.5-point favorites against the Steelers with the total listed at 43.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Steelers will need to be nearly flawless if they want to win this game against the Ravens. Baltimore blew them out of the water, 34-17, when these teams faced three weeks ago with the AFC North on the line. However, the Steelers did defeat them 18-16 earlier in the season. That is the type of game that the Steelers need if they want to win this matchup.
The Steelers do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Ravens in a shootout. In that game, the Steelers forced a couple of turnovers, held Derrick Henry in check and George Pickens had a big day. Those are the three things that they need to go for again in this game. If Pickens is not able to create some explosive plays, the Pittsburgh offense will be really stale. They will also need to win the turnover battle. Their best chance at doing that is getting pressure on Lamar Jackson and trying to force a mistake. The Ravens will also be without their leading receiver, Zay Flowers, for this game. That should allow the Steelers to cheat to stop the run a bit more with less receiving threats to worry about.
Pittsburgh is going to try to make this game ugly and turn it into a rock fight. However, the Ravens have a coaching advantage and a massive quarterback advantage. The Baltimore defense has also been sensational in the second half of the season. They are much better than the unit that Pittsburgh faced when they beat them earlier this season. This game could get ugly but ultimately, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry will make the key plays needed to win the game.
Final Score: Ravens 24, Steelers 13
Futures and Best Bets
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Steelers are +9000 to win the Super Bowl and +3000 to win the AFC, tied for the worst odds to win both.
It’s hard to see any path to the Steelers winning multiple games in the playoffs. Even if they pull off the major upset over the Ravens, they would likely need to beat Buffalo on the road and Kansas City on the road to even make the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh is likely to be a first-round exit so I can’t make any argument to place a future bet on them. However, my best bet involving the Steelers is on the under 43.5 against the Ravens. The Steelers should muck it up and the Ravens are likely to come with a run-heavy approach with Zay Flowers out. The Ravens are likely to win this game in a lower-scoring affair so I am taking the under in that game.
Best bet: Ravens-Steelers u43.5 (-105)
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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