Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as Questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Pelicans star guard Dejounte Murray to have a 50% chance to play in tonight’s back-to-back for New Orleans. With Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III and Brandon Ingram already ruled out, Murray’s status is crucial to know amid a week of Questionable players dictating DFS slates and prop markets.
New Orleans has a fairly high 114.3-point implied total at home versus Portland. If Murray were to vacate his normal 26.6% usage rate, 10.3% rebound rate and 36.2 assist rate — good for 1.2 DraftKings Points Per Minute — there’d be a lot of opportunity left behind for a Pelicans team that’d be down four of its top scorers.
If Murray plays, Unabated’s NBA Conditional Projections would have him projected for 19.5 points, 6.3 rebounds and 8 assists. After he put up 29 points and 54.5 DraftKings Points versus a much tougher Minnesota team, Murray would likely be a popular play in tonight’s DFS tournaments and prop betting markets.
If Murray sits tonight, here’s how a few of his key remaining Pelicans teammates would project:
- CJ McCollum projects for 26.1 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.8 assists (24 points, 4 rebounds and 4.4 assists if Murray plays)
- Herbert Jones projects for 13.4 points, 4.9 rebounds and 4.2 assists (11.6 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.5 assists if Murray plays)
- Yves Missi projects for 12.5 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.1 assists (11.1 points, 9.5 rebounds and 1.6 assists if Murray plays)
If Murray doesn’t play, there’s also likely expected value on the Pelicans’ prop betting markets. McCollum’s over 4.5 assists line on DraftKings Sportsbook would have 24% Expected Value in Unabated’s simulation tools along with a lower 5.6% EV on his 4.5 rebounds line. There are a number of key Questionable players on the 1/8 NBA slate and Murray is as important as any of them.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
