As Benjamin Franklin famously said, “In this world, nothing is certain except death and taxes.” However, the founding father forgot life’s final guarantee — the Houston Texans opening the NFL Playoffs in the 4:25 p.m. Saturday slot.
The boys in battle red and blue secured back-to-back AFC South titles with their second-straight 10-7 campaign. Unfortunately for their Super Bowl dreams, though, this isn’t the same upstart Texans squad which shattered preseason expectations and won a playoff game last year thanks to a red-hot offense.
Yes, Houston is back in their usual time slot to ring in the postseason festivities. As a franchise still without a Lombardi Trophy to their name, anchored an exciting young core, it can be argued that they’re an ideal bandwagon for fans without a rooting interest in the playoffs to hop on. However, their path to a potential championship is a tricky one.
The Texans are +9000 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win the Super Bowl, tied for the worst odds among all playoff teams. Do they even have a chance at a Cinderella run?
Season in review
Last season’s Texans were not only a success story, but a masterclass in accelerating a rebuild. After a couple of disappointing years following the trade of their previous franchise quarterback, Houston signed impact veterans in the offseason, then drafted a new franchise signal-caller in C.J. Stroud and a foundational edge rusher in Will Anderson Jr. They went 10-7 in year one under head coach DeMeco Ryans and even won a playoff game against the Cleveland Browns in commanding fashion.
They followed that campaign up with more aggressive acquisitions in the leadup to this season, adding Pro Bowlers in wideout Stefon Diggs and halfback Joe Mixon. The Texans dominated conversations about teams positioned to make a leap, and for good reason. Over the weeks that followed the season opener, though, fans were forced to draw from another cliche: “Houston, we have a problem.”
The Texans’ campaign started with a 6-2 record and they emerged victorious in some tough games, but star receiver Nico Collins injured a hamstring in Week 5 and didn’t play again until Week 11. While he avoided a major injury, his fellow wideouts in Diggs and Tank Dell were not as lucky — both suffered season-ending ACL tears in Week 8 and Week 16, respectively. Injuries marred what could have been a stellar campaign for one of the NFL’s top receiver rooms.
Whether due to offensive injuries or the adjustment of defenses with a full season’s worth of game tape, the Texans’ young quarterback also only showed flashes of the superstar player from his rookie campaign. Stroud threw for 3,727 yards, but averaged just 219.2 per game compared to last season’s league-leading 273.9 mark. He also threw three fewer touchdowns (20) and seven more interceptions (12) than in his rookie season, in two more games at that. While the team’s offensive line play regressed, it’s still concerning that Stroud took 52 sacks.
While Stroud is still undoubtedly a franchise quarterback, the sophomore slump is real. Even despite his statistical regression, the team stayed alive and did win the AFC South at 10-7 to secure a home playoff game — with that said, the road to get here wasn’t exactly a pretty one.
Postseason outlook
Looking toward Houston’s postseason chances, they have a home date with a revitalized Los Angeles Chargers squad on Saturday. At first glance, the range of outcomes for the contest seems pretty wide.
The Texans offense has been mostly unimpressive this season, coming in at 19th in points per game (21.9), 22nd in total yards (319.7), 15th in rushing yards (112.3), and 21st in passing yards per game (207.4). Based on their recent form, however, things look far worse. Across their last three games, Houston averaged just 14.7 points, tied for third-worst in the NFL.
Defensively, they come in with stronger numbers. Houston’s defense allows the sixth-fewest total yards, 11th-fewest rushing yards, and sixth-fewest passing yards per outing. Allowing an average of 21.9 points per contest, they rank 14th overall in that category, though their average is arguably slightly deflated due to facing weaker teams in divisional matchups.
The opposing Chargers are a bit of a wild card in this Wild Card round. Many of their season-long stats are fairly similar to the Texans’ — they average roughly two more points and five more yards of offense than Houston while allowing 10 more total yards on defense. However, Los Angeles possesses the league’s stingiest defense, allowing just 17.7 points per game. They’re also riding a hot streak to close the season by averaging a league-best 36 points per contest. They’re in much better form than the Texans, plus their quarterback-head coach tandem of Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh maintains an edge over Houston’s this year.
While back-to-back division titles are nothing to scoff at, inconsistency has plagued Houston all season. Anything can happen in the win-or-go-home environment of the playoffs, but it’s hard to envision this Texans team making much noise considering their tough first-round matchup. I’d love to be proven wrong, but given their shorthanded offense and struggles to string together consistent performances, they feel more like an early exit than a legitimate contender.
When the dust settles, Houston fans can co-opt one more famous phrase from their Lone Star State rivals up in Dallas. “There’s always next year.”
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