For the sixth time in the last seven years, the Ravens are back in the postseason. The script hasn’t changed much in Baltimore: an elite offense led by two-time MVP Lamar Jackson overpowered most of its competition en route to another playoff berth. The team trailed the rival Steelers in the AFC North standings as late as Week 16, but four wins in the month of December helped clinch a second straight division title.
The Ravens are +550 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win the Super Bowl, behind only the top-seeded Chiefs and Lions. Baltimore’s odds of winning the AFC sit at +270.
Baltimore Ravens Team Breakdown
Jackson has a real claim as the best quarterback on the planet. The seventh-year pro took his game to another level this season, throwing for 4,172 yards, rushing for 915 yards, and recording a league-leading 45 total touchdowns. However, there are a few new faces that have helped out, including running back Derrick Henry. The former Titans star, signed this offseason, was nothing short of dominant, rushing for 1,921 yards and an NFL-best 16 touchdowns.
As dominant as Baltimore’s ground game was, the team is also capable of beating defenses through the air. Second-year wideout Zay Flowers made history, becoming the first receiver in franchise history to make the Pro Bowl at the position. After a rocky start, veteran tight end Mark Andrews came on strong to end the year, grabbing a touchdown pass in each of the team’s final six contests. Wide receiver Rashod Bateman enjoyed a career year, hauling in 45 catches for 756 yards and nine touchdowns.
When you combine two of the league’s most gifted runners with a potent pass game, the end result is nearly 425 yards per game, the highest mark in football. It’s no exaggeration to call this the most dangerous offense in the AFC; the conference’s next-closest team were the Bengals (365.5), who didn’t even reach the postseason. This is a ‘pick your poison’ dilemma for opposing defenses, as Jackson’s arm is good enough to burn teams that go all out to stop the run.
If there’s one Achilles heel on this roster, it’s in the secondary. A typically solid unit regressed heavily this season, giving up the second-most passing yards per game to opponents (244.1). The Ravens have managed to overcome this weakness with a dominant front seven, led by Pro Bowl linebacker Roquan Smith. The team ranked second in the NFL in sacks (54), with major contributions from Kyle Van Noy (12.5) and Odafe Oweh (10.0). Still, if pressure doesn’t come quickly, Baltimore could find itself giving up plenty of chunk plays downfield.
Ravens vs. Steelers Matchup
For the third time this season, the Ravens will match up with their arch rival, the Steelers. After a surprising 8-2 start, Pittsburgh struggled mightily down the stretch, losing five of their final seven games. Perhaps the most embarrassing defeat during that time was a 34-17 blowout in Baltimore, one that saw the two teams trade places atop the AFC North.
As previously mentioned, Baltimore’s biggest weakness is in the secondary. However, Pittsburgh doesn’t feel like the kind of team to go pass-heavy. Over their final five games, the Steelers threw for just 171.1 yards per game, the lowest mark in the NFL. On the ground, starting running back Najee Harris has struggled in this spot, rushing for just 3.7 yards per carry and three touchdowns over eight career meetings with Baltimore.
The one factor that favors the Steelers is their defense. Baltimore has scored more than 20 points in just two of their previous ten matchups vs. Pittsburgh, including an 18-16 loss in Week 11. Fortunately for the Ravens, it appears that the offense made a breakthrough when these teams met three weeks ago, totaling 34 points and 418 yards of offense. In that game, Jackson threw for three touchdowns and Henry gained 189 yards from scrimmage.
Prediction
There’s a timeline where this is another epic chapter in one of the NFL’s hardest-hitting rivalries. As a neutral observer, there’s nothing I’d want to see more than two old foes doing battle a la Troy Polamalu and James Harrison vs. Ed Reed and Ray Lewis. Alas, that won’t be the case on Saturday. These two teams are going in opposite directions, and I believe that Baltimore’s win last month gives them a mental edge against a fading Pittsburgh squad. The Steelers might hang around for a while, but I’d expect some second-half runs by Henry to seal the deal.
Final Score: Ravens 28, Steelers 16
Super Bowl Futures
As owners of the third-highest odds to win the Super Bowl, the Ravens aren’t exactly a buy-low. Still, in a top-heavy season, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Baltimore has won in far more dominant fashion than the Chiefs, who keep pulling out miraculous one-score victories. The Bills are a terrific team as well, but heavily dependent on Josh Allen magic; the Ravens have more high-quality options on offense. A 24-19 loss in Week 14 to the Eagles is somewhat concerning, so let’s play it safe.
Best Bet: Ravens to win the AFC (+270).
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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