Temperatures may be dropping, but the action on the gridiron is just heating up — the NFL Playoffs are officially here. The Wild Card Weekend slate begins Saturday with a 4:30 p.m. EST clash as the Houston Texans host the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Texans won the AFC South, which means they have home-field advantage in this contest. However, any statement labeling them a better team than the Chargers outright due to being a division winner may be misguided. This should be a very close matchup, with the spread on DraftKings Sportsbook actually favoring Los Angeles by three points. The Moneyline also reflects this, with the Chargers sitting ahead with -162 odds to win outright.
Analysis
The Texans may have won the offseason with a strong draft and multiple star acquisitions in Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter, but their title hopes for this campaign were quickly marred by injuries. While Diggs looked fantastic through the opening weeks, he tore an ACL in Week 8, and fellow wideout Tank Dell suffered a similar AC tear along with other structural damage in Week 16. With two major receiving weapons sidelined for the season, the Texans’ offense is mostly depleted aside from Nico Collins and Joe Mixon.
The story to watch is whether this battered group of offensive weapons can elevate their game against a tough Chargers defense. Los Angeles, in their first season under the direction of head coach Jim Harbaugh, has seen their identity molded into that of a hard-nosed, old-school, smash-mouth football team. The Chargers boast the top scoring defense in the league, allowing just 17.7 points per game. They also rank seventh in passing yardage, 13th in rushing yardage, and 11th in total offense given up per contest.
Interestingly enough, both teams’ offenses rank outside the top-20 in total yardage on a per-game basis. Both squads are equally unimpressive in points scored, with the Chargers ranking 11th (23.6) and the Texans 19th (21.9). If recent form is any indicator, though, these two franchises couldn’t be further apart. Over the last three weeks of the season, Los Angeles averaged a league-leading 36 points per game. Where does Houston rank? Fourth-worst in the NFL at a measly 14.7.
Top props to consider
There’s a couple of prop bets with serious appeal for this matchup. One to consider is Ladd McConkey to record over 5.5 receptions at -125 odds. The rookie receiver quickly cemented his place as the Chargers’ top pass catcher from the get-go this season with 82 catches for 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns. He averages seven targets and 5.1 receptions per game, so quarterback Justin Herbert clearly trusts the Georgia product. McConkey has tallied at least six catches in six of his last seven games and should be in for a solid workload on Saturday.
The Texans are a little bit difficult to trust for betting purposes right now, so the other featured props to consider here both hinge on Herbert. The signal-caller is listed at -135 to throw for 225+ yards, as well as -105 to throw over 1.5 touchdown passes. He’s been on a tear over the past three weeks, so it could be worth riding the hot hand here.
Prediction
Despite winning the AFC South and having the luxury of a home game, the Texans may very well be outclassed in this contest. Their offense is going to have to show up, but the common theme throughout this season remains — this isn’t last year’s upstart Texans team which lit the league on fire offensively.
The Chargers’ primary playmakers, Ladd McConkey and J.K. Dobbins, may not carry the same big-name value as that of Nico Collins and Joe Mixon. Games aren’t decided on paper, though, and Los Angeles has the edge in coaching, quarterback play, and recent form.
A Chargers win on the road feels not only like a distinct possibility, but the most likely outcome. Prediction: Chargers 27, Texans 13.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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