The NFL Playoffs are here and there are some incredible Wild Card Round matchups to get things started. You can bet on every game of the Wild Card Round on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Undoubtedly, one of the most exciting matchups of the first round is between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday night. These teams are hated rivals in the AFC North, playing each other twice every regular season. These teams have also faced each other four times in the postseason since 1996 when the Ravens’ franchise was founded. The Steelers are 3-1 in those games, but all four previous matchups were held in Pittsburgh. This matchup will be hosted in Baltimore, as the Ravens edged out the Steelers to win the AFC North.
The Baltimore Ravens are +600 to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings Sportsbook, the third-best odds in the field, behind only the Chiefs and Lions. The Ravens started the season 0-2 but then went 12-3 the rest of the way to win the AFC North. Lamar Jackson is having another MVP-level season and is one of the two contenders for the award this season. The addition of Derrick Henry has also made the Ravens the best running team in the NFL. They are a tough offense to stop, and their defense has made a massive turnaround in the second half of the season as well.
The Steelers are +9000 to win the Super Bowl, which is the longest odds of any team in the field. Pittsburgh started the season 4-2 with Justin Fields at quarterback. Then they made the switch to Russell Wilson and went 6-1 over his first seven starts. That had them at 10-3 and favored to win the AFC North. However, Pittsburgh lost their final four games of the season to finish 10-7, lose the division to Baltimore and barely cling on to a playoff spot. The betting market isn’t giving them much of a chance to win this game, let alone the Super Bowl, but they do have a head coach and quarterback with a lot of postseason experience.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Ravens are ten-point favorites, the biggest favorites of the Wild Card Round, and the point total is set at 43.5. Let’s break down the Wild Card clash, with one of my favorite prop bets and a score prediction at the end.
Prop Bet: Derrick Henry 100+ Rushing Yards (-115)
Derrick Henry has had an incredible first year in Baltimore. Lamar Jackson is the MVP candidate in the offense, but Derrick Henry is second in the NFL in rushing yards and tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns. Henry finished the NFL season on an incredibly strong note, averaging 149 rushing yards per game over his final three games. That included a monster 162-yard performance against the Steelers in Week 16. Henry played in seven postseason games with the Titans, including a run to the AFC Championship Game in 2019. In his postseason career, Henry is averaging 104.6 rushing yards per game. Between the form he is in and his past postseason success, my favorite prop bet for this game is for Henry to have 100 or more rushing yards against the Steelers.
The Ravens’ offense ranks 1st in the league in EPA/play, 1st in rushing yards per game, 2nd in EPA/rush and 2nd in rushing success rate. That gives them massive advantages on the ground against the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 17th in EPA/rush and 18th in rushing success rate, and things have gotten much worse in the second half of the season. Since Week 11, the Steelers rank 26th in defensive EPA/rush and 26th in defensive rushing success rate. The Ravens are also big favorites in this game, which could lead to a lot of running in the second half to drain the clock and control the time of possession. Henry should be able to break a couple of big runs and get enough carries to rack up over 100 rushing yards in this game.
Score Prediction
Mike Tomlin and Russell Wilson have both won Super Bowls and have boatloads of postseason experience. John Harbaugh also has a Super Bowl victory, but Lamar Jackson has struggled to reach the pinnacle in the postseason with the Ravens. Jackson has a record of 2-4 in the postseason with a 6-6 TD-INT ratio. However, this is the best Ravens offense he has been a part of, and the addition of Derrick Henry should pay dividends in the postseason. Also, as Jackson gains more postseason experience, he should get more and more confident in these games. He should be particularly confident against this Steelers team that he just beat handily less than a month ago.
Mike Tomlin won a Super Bowl in his second season as an NFL head coach, and then made another Super Bowl two years after that. However, in recent years, Tomlin and the Steelers have really struggled in the postseason. They have lost five straight games and failed to cover in each of those games as well. With the lack of postseason success in recent years and the declining performances to end the regular season, it is hard to trust Pittsburgh in this game. Russell Wilson’s play has really gone downhill over the past month and George Pickens, who was emerging as a star earlier this season, had one catch for zero yards in the regular season finale against the Bengals. This offense seems broken, and the defense is no longer playing at a high level to counter-balance the bad offense.
One thing that could hold back the Ravens is the injury to their star receiver, Zay Flowers. Flowers injured his knee in the regular season finale against the Browns and is considered “day-to-day” heading into this game. It’s the postseason, so typically if a player has any chance of playing, they will go out there and give it their best effort. However, the Ravens are big favorites in this game at home and must feel confident that they could win without Flowers. It might be in their best interest to rest Flowers and make sure he is close to 100% for the expected massive showdown with the Bills in the Divisional Round. Rashod Bateman stepped up to the plate and had 76 receiving yards and a touchdown with Flowers on the sideline last week. Between their dominant running game, their elite tight end duo and Bateman, the Ravens should be able to win this game with or without flowers.
Measuring by DVOA, the Ravens are not only the best team in the NFL this season, but since 1978, they have the seventh-best single-season DVOA of any team. Meanwhile, the Steelers have dropped all the way to 15th in the NFL in DVOA. The Ravens’ offense is historically good, but their defense has had a dramatic turnaround. In weeks 1-10, the Ravens ranked 27th in defensive EPA/play. Since Week 11, they have been the best defense in the NFL, ranking 1st in defensive EPA/play. Between their now elite defense and their top-ranked offense, the Ravens will be tough for any team to beat in the postseason. These Steelers have been terrible over the past month and should struggle on both sides of the ball. Ultimately, the Ravens should win this game and cover the large spread.
FINAL SCORE: Baltimore Ravens 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 14
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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