We’re down to the final four in the College Football Playoff. Notre Dame and Penn State will square off on Thursday night in the Orange Bowl in Miami, and then Ohio State and Texas will face each other in Arlington on Friday night in the Cotton Bowl. I’ll have expanded articles on each game on game day, but for now let’s breakdown some early betting angles on each game.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State (Orange Bowl) January 9 at 7:30pm ET
The total opened too high in this game, at 50 or higher at many shops, and has been bet down accordingly. As I write this on Tuesday afternoon, the total sits at 45.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, which feels more appropriate. I was able to get in on the under at 47/47.5, but didn’t get it out as a play. If it somehow rises back up to 47, that’s the number I would fire on an under here. I would almost never give out a college total as a tease leg, but if you wanted to work the two games together, teasing this up to an under at 51.5 feels pretty strong to me. For now, I’ll advise waiting.
These are two terrific defenses, and we’ve seen that on display in the CFP. Both teams rank top-five in the country on the season in points per game allowed, with Notre Dame No. 2 (13.6) and Penn State No. 5 (15.8). The Irish essentially held Indiana to three points until garbage time playing their CFP opener at home, but the Hoosiers were able to put two late touchdowns on the board in a game that was already over. They followed it up surrendering just 10 points to Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.
The Nittany Lions have played inferior competition thus far, but allowed just 10 points to SMU and 14 points to Boise State in CFP play. Both offenses are going to focus on running the ball and limiting mistakes, but it’s going to be strength on strength going against terrific run defenses. Even in the Sugar Bowl, ND’s 23 points were a bit flukey — 14 points coming on consecutive plays to end the first half (a one-play drive on a short field off a crucial UGA turnover) and begin the second half (a kick return). The offenses was unable to generate a pure touchdown drive against a good Georgia defense.
I do lean to the Irish as the right side in the game, but this has all the makings to be a true grinder. Let’s see where the total moves as kickoff approaches.
The Play: UNDER 47 or better if the market gets there or consider teasing the total UNDER 51.5 or better
Ohio State vs. Texas (Cotton Bowl) January 10 at 7:30pm ET
The public faded Ohio State in their first two CFP games, opting for Tennessee as a road underdog and then the undefeated Ducks in the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes blew the doors off both teams, and are now the odds-on-favorites to win it all. Now the public seems to have come around on OSU, which probably inflates the number on this game a little bit.
The Buckeyes touched as high as -6.5 facing the Longhorns in Texas, and have settled laying six as of Tuesday afternoon. I’ve gone ahead and looped OSU ML in on a couple parlays throughout the week, both of which got through. I like OSU quite a bit here, and with it priced as a 8.5-9.5 favorite on lookahead lines in the Championship Game, I’ll also take some on the Buckeyes to win it all.
Ohio State has allowed the fewest points per game this season at 12.1, and most of the points they’ve surrendered in the CFP have been after building large leads. What’s been really eye-opening is how the Buckeyes have evolved offensively, with the passing game playing the best it has all season. They’ve maintained a strong run game with their pair of physical running backs, but Jeremiah Smith has opened things up in the passing game as a dominant force.
Texas has also been an elite defense this season, but we’ve seen it show holes in some big games. The Longhorns gave up 24 points to Clemson at home in the CFP opener, and then 31 to Arizona State (24 in regulation) in a game they easily could’ve lost. I don’t want to disrespect Texas here too much with the season its had, but the Longhorns are going to have their hands full here against the Buckeyes. I think Ohio State is the better team on both sides of the ball, and will find a way to win it.
The Play: Ohio State ML in parlays (I have 2-units here in plays from Twitter) and Ohio State (-110) to win it all (2-units)
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
