Do you remember the last time the Minnesota Vikings made a deep playoff run?
I’m sure Stefon Diggs remembers.
It was the 2017-18 season, when Diggs caught a 61-yard touchdown pass on third and 10 with only 10 seconds remaining and the Vikings trailing by one. The dramatic touchdown, known as the Minneapolis Miracle, brought Minnesota to the NFC Championship Game, where it was blown out by the Philadelphia Eagles, who ended up winning the Super Bowl over the New England Patriots.
This year, the Vikings have their best team since that 2017-18 squad, led by an equally surprising quarterback. After losing incumbent starter Kirk Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons in free agency and rookie JJ McCarthy to a torn ACL in preseason, Minnesota wasn’t widely projected to be a contender. However, journeyman Sam Darnold turned in the finest season of his career, completing 66.2% of his passes for 4,319 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions as the team went 14-3. Darnold’s still only 27 and the Vikings will likely consider giving him a long-term extension in the offseason, putting McCarthy’s future in peril.
Minnesota’s most important player is probably wide receiver Justin Jefferson, whose 96.5 yards per game across his career is the highest average in NFL history. Jefferson won Offensive Player of the Year in his third season and earned All-Pro nods in each of his first three campaigns. Only an injury-riddled 2023 campaign stopped him from starting his career with five straight Pro Bowls, but he still put up 1,074 yards in just 10 games. He is also pretty sure-handed, having dropped just 2.6% of his targets, the 58th-lowest among 220 players with at least 25 targets this season.
Meanwhile, the Vikings have excelled on defense once again, just as the 2017-18 squad did. Minnesota has allowed just 1,588 rushing yards, the second-fewest in the league, and it has done so on the fourth-best efficiency (4.0 yards per carry). And, while the Vikings have conceded 4,459 passing yards — the fourth-most in football — they also have recorded 24 interceptions, five more than any other team. Both of their outside linebackers, Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, were named to the Pro Bowl roster, as was cornerback Byron Murphy. Former All-Pro selections Harrison Smith and Stephon Gilmore, while no longer quite in their primes, have provided important veteran leadership.
Minnesota has only lost to two teams, the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams, so it has to feel pretty good heading into the postseason.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Vikings have +1600 odds to win the Super Bowl, the sixth-shortest odds among the 14 playoff teams. Below, I’ve broken down their path to the Lombardi Trophy.
The Minnesota Vikings Wild Card Outlook
Unfortunately for Minnesota, its playoff journey will begin against one of the two teams that it failed to beat during the regular season, as it will have to travel to SoFi Stadium to take on the Rams. The Vikings lost to Los Angeles, 30-20, in Week 8. In that game, Darnold and Jefferson played well, but the defense couldn’t get a stop and running back Aaron Jones was mostly ineffective. Los Angeles has been on a roll since then, winning nine of its last 12 games.
The Rams’ chances center around veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford, who has completed 65.8% of his passes for 3,762 yards, 20 touchdowns, and eight interceptions this season. While he hasn’t been quite the gunslinging playmaker that he was with the Lions, Stafford can still keep Los Angeles in it with timely throws. His top target is second-year wide receiver Puka Nacua, who, by Pro Football Focus’ grading, is the best wideout in the league. Despite a five-game absence with a knee injury, Nacua amassed 79 catches, 990 yards, and three scores while dropping just one pass all season. Running back Kyren Williams backed up his 2023 Pro Bowl campaign with another solid season, accounting for 1,481 all-purpose yards and 16 total touchdowns.
The Rams’ secondary hasn’t been great, as it has allowed the 10th-most yards to opposing quarterbacks on the sixth-best efficiency and given up the fifth-most scores. Free safety Quentin Lake and cornerback Akhello Witherspoon started to come into their own towards the end of the season, but the secondary is still an area of relative weakness. Also, Los Angeles’ rushing defense has been merely average, and it’s clear that the Rams are missing Aaron Donald, the three-time Defensive Player of the Year who retired prior to the season. Rookie outside linebacker Jared Verse has been pretty good — recording 4.5 sacks and 11 tackles for a loss and making the Pro Bowl roster — but Donald is simply irreplaceable.
Of all six Wild Card Round matchups, this one might be the toughest to predict. It could truly go either way, but I think Los Angeles has the slightest of edges.
Minnesota certainly can win. It has the sixth-most potent passing game in football and an average running game. It has also scored the ninth-most points in football. Jefferson is that good, and the Vikings’ secondary target, Jordan Addison, has produced nearly 1,800 yards and 19 touchdowns across his first two seasons in the league. Tight end T.J. Hockenson should also have an extremely favorable matchup against a Rams defense that allowed 1,101 yards to opposing tight ends, the fourth-most in the league. Greeland and Van Ginkel both rank in the league’s top eight in sacks, and Stafford was pressured more than all but eight other quarterbacks. On top of it all, visiting fans might outnumber home fans in Los Angeles, a basketball city where the Rams are still relatively unpopular.
I just look at the Vikings’ schedule and I don’t see any signature victories. Its two narrow wins against the Green Bay Packers were impressive, but other than that, Minnesota played the NFC South, which had a combined .412 winning percentage, and the AFC South (.368). It played just seven games against teams with winning records and won only four of them. Plus, the Vikings had their bye in Week 6 — the second-earliest possible — and while the Rams were on bye the same week, they were able to rest their starters in Week 18 while Minnesota’s starters took a 31-9 throttling in Detroit. Stafford and Kupp, who are both on the wrong side of 30, got a chance to recuperate, and the Vikings looked battered in the defeat.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Minnesota is a 1.5-point favorite (-122 on the moneyline), and the point total is set to 46.5. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is +102 on the moneyline.
Minnesota Vikings Championship Chances
Barring a Washington Commanders upset over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or a Packers win over the Philadelphia Eagles, the Vikings will have to travel straight to the belly of the beast if it beats the Rams.
As the fifth seed, Minnesota will travel to Detroit to take on the top-seeded Lions if the second-seeded Eagles and third-seeded Buccaneers both win. If Philadelphia loses and Tampa Bay wins, the Vikings will take on the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. If Tampa Bay loses and the Eagles win, Minnesota will play against Philadelphia in the City of Brotherly Love. But if both favorites lose, the Vikings will host the Commanders at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Minnesota’s ideal Divisional Round matchup would be Washington. The Commanders have both a bad front seven and a mediocre secondary, and Jefferson and Addison should be able to carve them up with ease. I’d also give the Vikings a slight edge over Tampa Bay, which has a good rushing defense but one of the worst secondaries in the league. However, it’s not likely that Minnesota will face either Washington or the Buccaneers, given that Philadelphia is a 4.5-point favorite over Green Bay, which just lost its top wide receiver, Christian Watson, for the season.
The Vikings’ elite rushing defense might be just enough to slow down Eagles running back Saquon Barkley, whose 2,005 rushing yards this season represented the eighth-highest single season total in NFL history. However, Philadelphia’s passing game is also pretty good, as quarterback Jalen Hurts — the MVP runner-up in 2022 — quietly had the most efficient season of his career, completing 68.7% of his passes and throwing just five interceptions. The Eagles’ wide receiver tandem of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith is slightly worse than the Jefferson-Addison duo, but they’re pretty effective overall. Plus, Philadelphia has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards and fewest total touchdowns to opposing running backs, as well as the second-fewest receiving yards and sixth-fewest receiving touchdowns overall. Minnesota, which plays in a covered stadium, might also be unprepared for Philadelphia’s notorious January weather.
The Vikings likely wouldn’t fare any better against Detroit, which has the highest-powered scoring offense (33.2 points per game) and the second-most potent passing game (263.2 yards per game) in the league. The Lions’ receiving tandem, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, is better than Brown and Smith and comparable with Jefferson and Addison. Detroit will also likely welcome back David Montgomery, who has formed a lethal running back duo with Jahmyr Gibbs this season, just in time for the Divisional Round. The Lions’ secondary isn’t incredible, but its offense is so good that I don’t love Minnesota’s chances.
As long as Jefferson is on the roster, I wouldn’t ever rule out the Vikings completely from making a run at a Super Bowl. I just don’t think it’s realistic for Minnesota, two weeks after getting battered by Detroit in Michigan, to march into the same stadium against a well-rested Lions team and win. With a Los Angeles squad in hot form, likely both Detroit and the Eagles, and one of Kansas City, Buffalo, and Baltimore in the Super Bowl, the Vikings’ road is simply too tough.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
