With under two minutes to go in the 2024 NFC Divisional round, the Green Bay Packers had the San Francisco 49ers on the ropes. For much of the evening, they looked like the better team… until they didn’t. In the blink of an eye, Christian McCaffrey scampered into the end zone, and Jordan Love threw a catastrophic interception to squander Green Bay’s excellent opportunity. That performance in last year’s playoffs raised expectations for this season, which this franchise hasn’t exactly met.
An 11-6 record is nothing to minimize, but the concerns go beyond the box score. The Packers finished third in the NFC North with a 1-5 record in their division. They only managed to win two games against clubs that made the playoffs — one being the Rams without Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and half their starting offensive line.
Franchise quarterback Love has plateaued, if not regressed, as a passer. His numbers have remained relatively constant, but as a 26-year-old sub-Pro Bowl talent, that’s an issue. He’s more comfortable pushing the ball downfield, but his increased turnover rate and injuries have hampered his effectiveness.
Free agent addition Josh Jacobs has taken over as the featured back and has been dominant in the end zone. He’s the reason why Green Bay is one of only nine squads with a positive EPA per rush. Even his effectiveness has started to dwindle, though, seeing his average yard per carry per month decrease from September to December.
The defense has been impressive at times, but their metrics are inflated from decimating inferior competition. Jeff Hafley’s group hasn’t allowed more than 34 points in a contest but is far from an elite unit. This stems from a shaky front seven, which ranks 26th in pass rush win rate, according to ESPN analytics.
Is Love capable of leveling up his play when it matters most? Can the defense generate enough stops against quality signal callers?
The Packers are +2000 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win it all. Those are the fourth-best odds in the conference and seventh overall.
Green Bay Packers Postseason Outlook
Come Wild Card Weekend, Green Bay gets a rematch of Week 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles. After resting most of their starters in Week 18, Philadelphia will be well rested when they host their familiar foe on Sunday afternoon.
The Eagles revolve around superstar Saquon Barkley, who is coming off 2,283 yards from scrimmage. He started his historic campaign by scoring a trio of touchdowns and crossing the century mark on the ground in the prior meeting against Green Bay. His quickness and vision behind the league’s best offensive line are virtually unstoppable and designed to flourish in postseason football.
The passing offense has gotten a smidge better but has been a staple of the Jalen Hurts era. DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown are an elite tandem on the perimeter and are what makes this aerial attack so lethal. Hurts is a product of having top weapons and protection up front — if he’s simply average, this group is almost unstoppable.
The defense has been just as destructive. Rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have solidified the once-troubling secondary. Josh Sweat and Jalen Carter are forces up front who live in opponents’ backfields. This roster has all the ingredients to get back to the big dance.
Green Bay simply doesn’t have the firepower to go on the road and outlast this team through four quarters. Love has undeniable traits, but his consistent lack of production is startling. In a one-game sample, is he even a clear upgrade over the likes of Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold?
Philadelphia opens as a -4.5 point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Even if they are miraculously able to squeak past the Eagles, this isn’t a group capable of winning three consecutive road playoff games. Love isn’t there yet as a signal-caller and is too mistake-prone to lead a magical run. Until he can reach that next tier of quarterbacks or the pass catchers around him become more consistent, this organization will be a notch below Super Bowl contention.
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