The regular season was an 18-week climb, but now it’s time for the cream to rise to the top and shine. Hopefully none of the games are over by halftime. That truly would be a crime. How about all three games giving us overtime?! Please no Nickelodeon green slime on my tv. Just pepper me with elite quarterbacks dropping dime after dime. That would be sublime. Are any of these games on Amazon Prime? Whew. Just checked. That would be a no, so everything’s fine.
DraftKings Sportsbook has BUF -8.5 over DEN at home with the total at 46.5. PHI is -4.5 over GB at home with the total at 45.5. TB is -3 over WAS at home with the total at 50.5.
DISCLAIMER: This piece was written on Monday, so it won’t factor in injuries or lineup changes that occur closer to Sunday.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (Sun).
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,500) – These teams met in Week 1 with Tampa Bay notching the 37-20 victory. Daniels went 17-of-24 for 184 yards, while rushing 16 times for 88 yards and two touchdowns. That was the first career start for Daniels, and he’s come a long way since then. The great thing is that the rushing prowess hasn’t gone anywhere while the passing acumen has gotten better. Not counting Week 18, Daniels has posted at least 23 FPTS in the last five games with three of those over 32 FPTS. This game as a 50.5 total and the Buccaneers have the most exploitable defense on the slate.
Other Options – Josh Allen ($8,200), Jalen Hurts ($7,300)
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Running Back
Stud
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers ($8,500) – Barkley rushed 24 times for 109 and two touchdowns while hauling in both of his targets for 23 yards and another touchdown in the Week 1 game against the Packers. I don’t expect a similar game, especially since the Packers run defense has been good the rest of the season, posting the eighth-best EPA per carry mark. That said, the Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in the game and Jalen Hurts is recovering from a concussion. Barkley should get fed. While the Eagles don’t throw to running backs often, Barkley saw 43 targets this season and the Packers allowed the third-most receptions to running backs this season. Barkley has scored over 20 FPTS nine times with six of those over 30 and a high of 49.2 FPTS.
Other Options – Bucky Irving ($7,000), James Cook ($6,700)
Value
Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills ($4,900) – It’s a three-headed monster in the Broncos backfield which, well, kind of sucks. That said, McLaughlin did lead the Broncs with a 41% snap share in Week 18, is involved in the passing game and received three red zone opportunities. Denver will likely be chasing points in this one and I like McLaughlin’s versatile skill set to be involved.
Other Options – Austin Ekeler ($4,800)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,500) – McLaurin leads the team with 117 targets. He has three games with double-digit targets, which includes last week’s 12 targets. McLaurin has finished with at least 20 FPTS seven times this season. I like Daniels, and the Bucs pass defense has allowed the ninth-most EPA per dropback on the season.
Other Options – Mike Evans ($7,900)
Value
Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Commanders ($5,200) – This game has a high total of 50.5 points and I think Daniels puts up points for Washington. McMillan has not received double-digit targets in any game, but he’s garnered at least five in each of the last five games with two of those with seven. He’s scored a touchdown in all of those contests with two games scoring twice.
Other Options – Devonta Smith ($5,700), Jayden Reed ($5,500), Romeo Doubs ($5,400)
Tight End
Stud
Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,300) – Ertz has 91 targets on the season, second-most on the team, so he’s going to be involved. The weekly consistency has been lacking, though. He’s received five and seven targets over the last two weeks, but only garnered two in each of the two prior games. He does have three games with at least eight targets with a high of 11. I like Daniels. It’s the playoffs. Ertz is going to see targets. It’s just a matter of how many. Tampa Bay has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points on average to tight ends this season.
Other Options – Dallas Goedert ($3,900), Tucker Kraft ($3,700), Payne Durham ($3,100) if Otton is out
Defense/Special Teams
Commanders DST at Tampa Bay Buccaneers($2,800) – Baker Mayfield shredded this defense back in Week 1 for 289 yards and four touchdowns. I don’t think we see a repeat, as the Commanders pass defense has been much better since then. They have posted a negative EPA per dropback in nine games since with three of those coming in the final three weeks. Baker Mayfield has five games with multiple interceptions and the basic thesis of this play is that Jayden Daniels puts up points, forcing Tampa Bay to respond aggressively, opening up the door for sacks and turnovers. I’m prepared to get hurt.
Other Options – Eagles DST ($3,300)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
