It’s easy to forget that five months ago, the Denver Broncos had minimal expectations. The Russell Wilson era was a catastrophe both on the field and off—a pair of losing seasons, lost draft capital, and dwindling cap space. One-season rebuilds are more a product of the modern college game with the transfer portal and NIL running rampant—not the hyper-structured NFL. Somehow, Sean Payton and George Paton have done just that and made this team into more than an inspirational story.
It starts with rookie signal caller Bo Nix. The veteran maestro, who became a superstar at the University of Oregon, was the fifth quarterback off the board in April’s draft. Even with absurd counting stats, Nix’s ceiling wasn’t tantalizing to many, with the exception of Payton. The Drew Brees comps are premature and irresponsible. However, Nix has been a stellar game manager who does enough not to lose games. He deserves credit for getting through the “rookie lumps,” but this group wins with crippling defense.
Denver finished the season with the best defensive EPA in the league, a 26-spot increase from last year. Vance Joseph has turned veteran Zach Allen into a perennial All-Pro candidate. He’s also gotten Defensive Player of the Year production from Nik Bonito and Patrick Surtain II. Six players have at least five sacks, and four have multiple interceptions.
Can Bo Nix handle grueling road environments and avoid making crucial mistakes? Can the defense continue to force turnovers and minimize opposition possessions?
The Broncos are +6500 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win it all. That’s fifth in the conference, only ahead of the Texans at +8000 and the Steelers at +9000.
The Denver Broncos Postseason Outlook
Denver is coming off a 38-0 dismantling of the Chiefs’ backups to punch its ticket to the postseason. It was a complete effort, but it was as simple as one side fighting to extend its campaign and one content starting its bye week early.
That victory secured a date Sunday against the surging Bills. Coach Sean McDermott decided to rest a bulk of his starters in Week 18 in preparation for the upcoming showdown. The team revolves around superstar Josh Allen, who is -450 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win league MVP.
Allen has evolved into a calculated gunslinger. He’s essentially the same player he has been, but he has become more dangerous out of the pocket and dramatically reduced his turnovers. That has helped nearly double the offense’s average EPA per play and transitioned a scary unit into a juggernaut.
Running back James Cook has been a viable bell cow, averaging a career-high 4.9 yards per attempt. His ability between the tackles has set up play action, making Allen’s life easier in the pocket.
The receiving room is concerning, but Amari Cooper, Khalil Shakir, and Keon Coleman have barely played together. That might not be the most talented room, but Shakir is a yards-after-catch monster. Cooper and Coleman are dangerous on the perimeter and can pluck the ball out of the sky. Add Dalton Kincaid at tight end, and that should be more than enough talent to score points in droves against anyone.
The defense is what will hold them back. The front seven struggles to get penetration in the run game. As for the secondary, they’ve looked shaky when forced to get out of “soft” zone. Safeties Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp are liabilities in coverage and susceptible to getting beaten over the top.
Those issues might cost Buffalo a championship but not an opening-round matchup against the Broncos. Payton’s offense is too reliant on gimmicks, quick reads over the middle, screens, and the occasional play action to hunt a chunk play. That can work against inferior competition, but there’s a reason Denver has only won two games against playoff teams all season.
Outside of Courtland Sutton, it’s been pass catcher by committee. That philosophy has only worked if led by a historically excellent quarterback, which Nix is not (yet). Marvin Mims Jr. has been on a tear but is a vertical threat who struggles to create separation near the line of scrimmage. Rookies Devaugn Vele and Troy Franklin have shown flashes, but not enough to warrant considerable praise. Pair that with a substandard ground game, and this offense almost certainly struggles on the largest stage.
Nix and company won’t be able to match scores with Allen, and almost certainly a first-round exit. Even if they pull off a miracle, and the defense creates some magic and stuns the Bills, a date with a well-rested Chiefs would mark the end of any potential Cinderella run.
The Broncos’ arrow is pointing upward, but they are a year away from being a year away.
Denver opens as an -8.5 point underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook against Buffalo, and that line is only likely to grow throughout the week.
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