The Broncos host the Chiefs in an AFC West rivalry game in Week 18. Here are some Courtland Sutton prop bets to consider at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Courtland Sutton Prop Bets
Here are Sutton’s current prop bet lines at DraftKings Sportsbook: o/u 80.5 receiving yards and o/u 5.5 receptions. Sutton is +110 to score a touchdown and +550 to score the first touchdown of the game.
Sutton has had a really solid season with rookie QB Bo Nix. He is just 17 yards away from having only the second 1,000 yard receiving season of his career. That would be a special milestone for Sutton to hit. However, Sutton also likely has a financial milestone on his mind. He needs to hit 1,065 receiving yards on the season to earn an extra $500,000 in contract incentives. That would require him racking up 82 yards on Sunday against the Chiefs. That is certainly an achievable number but it will not be Sutton’s nor the Broncos’ main priority.
Denver can secure a playoff berth with a win in this game. Miami will be fighting to steal the playoff spot with a win over the Jets and a Broncos loss, but Denver controls its own fate. The Broncos also get the good fortune of facing the Chiefs backups at a lot of key spots. Only one team has beaten the Chiefs all season so not having to face their best players could save the Broncos’ season. Most importantly, Carson Wentz will be playing quarterback, not Patrick Mahomes. Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt will all be missing on the offensive end as well. The Chiefs will be missing a few defensive starters including CB Trent McDuffie and safety Justin Reid in the secondary and their two best pass rushers, Chris Jones and George Karlaftis.
The over/under for Sutton’s receiving yards in this game has been set right around that number he needs for his contract incentive, 80.5 yards. These lines often get a bit inflated when players need contract incentives because the public is very aware that they want to reach those specific numbers. In some cases, teams will do their best to get the player to those stats. However, this game is so important for the Broncos that they cannot afford to feed Sutton so that he makes an extra $500,000. Even for Sutton personally, he has already hit $1 million in contract incentives this season so while the extra $500,000 would be great, he has already racked up a ton of extra money with his play so far.
Due to the number being inflated, I am betting on Sutton to go under 80.5 receiving yards. Sutton has only gone over this line in 4 of 16 games this season. In the past three weeks, he has not had more than 55 receiving yards. Despite missing some key starters, the Chiefs defense will still play tough because they are so well-coached and disciplined. There will also be players coming off of the bench who normally don’t get opportunities looking to prove themselves. Sutton went for 70 yards the last time these two teams faced and in his career, he is averaging just 51.2 yards per game against Kansas City. In 10 career games against the Chiefs, Sutton has only cleared this number once and that was in 2019. The Chiefs should contain Sutton once again and keep him under this number.
Pick: Courtland Sutton u80.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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