This game is perhaps the most significant regular season game in NFL history. The 14-2 Vikings head into Detroit to take on the 14-2 Lions for sole possession of first place in both the NFC North division and the NFC. These two teams have 28 combined wins––the most wins shared by two teams in a regular season game in NFL history. The Lions are three-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at O/U 56.5 points.
Detroit and Minnesota rank third and 11th in EPA per play, respectively, so we should expect a heavy dose of offensive excellence. Offensive excellence includes lots of touchdowns and those are always fun to bet on, especially first touchdown scorers. Please read below for my favorite first touchdown prop bet pick for Vikings vs. Lions on Sunday Night Football.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Jordan Addison First TD Scorer (+1200)
Both the Vikings and Lions have generated an offensive touchdown on 31% of their first drives this season, so we should know the first touchdown scorer rather quickly. I’m leaning toward the Vikings because they average the second-most first-quarter points per game and the Lions allow the 10th-most first-quarter points per game.
Addison leads the team in first touchdowns with four and has found the end zone in 4/6 road games this season. He has been targeted at least eight times in six of the last seven games and draws an elite matchup against one of the worst secondaries in the league. The Lions have given up 13 touchdowns and over 3,000 yards to opposing wide receivers this season and should be focused on containing Justin Jefferson, leaving Addison open for big chunk plays.
Sam Darnold has looked Addison’s way early and often, too, targeting him four times in the first quarter in each of the last two road games. While Jefferson has garnered five more red zone targets than him this season, Addison has been far more efficient––hauling in 16-of-17 targets and converting six of them into touchdowns.
