In the 65 years of the Buffalo Bills, the organization has failed to win a championship. Four consecutive losses in the Super Bowl and a 17-year playoff drought soon after are just the tip of the iceberg, but the absence of ultimate glory has weighed heavily on this team and its fans. Even with MVP frontrunner Josh Allen at the helm, the window of contention is still murky. The AFC is a hotbed for talented signal callers, and modern salary cap constraints make it challenging to keep rosters together for long.
This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Buffalo. The wide receiver room looked thin, the defense looked shaky, and coach Sean McDermott has had his fair share of costly gaffes. The campaign was nearly flawless, finishing 13-4, with a spotless 8-0 record at home.
Allen somehow leveled up, transforming into an economical gunslinger. Cutting out the turnovers and maximizing possessions nearly doubled the offense’s average EPA per play, turning an already excellent unit into a supernova. James Cook emerged as a serviceable bell cow to help establish a ground game that had been lacking since LeSean McCoy was in uniform.
The front seven has been concerning, particularly failing to get push against the run. The impressive secondary has offset that detriment and has graded out as a net zero.
Is Allen ready to be the best quarterback on the planet when it matters most? Can the defense get the stops in crunch time that evaded them to hold on to late leads?
The Bills are +650 on DraftKings Sportsbook to win it all. That’s third in the conference, trailing the Chiefs at +340 and just behind the Ravens at +600.
The Buffalo Bills Wild Card Outlook
After resting most of their starters in Week 18, Buffalo will be well rested when they host Denver next Sunday. The Broncos capped off their improbable campaign by blowing out Kansas City’s backups, securing a trip to the playoffs.
Rookie Bo Nix has had spectacular counting stats, tossing for 25 touchdowns, using his legs for four more, and even catching one. His role in Sean Payton’s offense has been a polarizing topic. Nix is averaging 3.7 air yards per attempt, which ranks 45th of every quarterback who has thrown a pass this season. The offense revolves around a healthy dose of check-downs and screens, which one could argue lessens his personal responsibility.
The results were spotty when Nix saw more responsibility. In his last seven outings, he’s only heaved under 33 passes twice, but he has had trouble holding onto the rock. Throughout that span, he’s tossed six interceptions and lost a pair of fumbles. The growing pains are natural, but Nix often resembles a mid-to-high-level game manager, more so a playmaker who can dramatically elevate those around him.
The defense is a different story. Vance Joseph has transformed his group into the best in the league, led by a revolving door of impressive pass rushers and Defensive Player of the Year shoo-in Patrick Surtain II in the secondary.
It’s hard to fathom that Denver can score enough to be competitive against an offensive juggernaut. Nix has shown plenty of flashes, but not enough to warrant thinking he can be competitive on the road under the lights against an elite signal caller.
Buffalo opens as an -8.5 point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, and that line is only likely to grow throughout the week.
The Buffalo Bills Championship Chances
Everything has gone right for the Bills. Stud linebacker Matt Milano avoided a season-ending injury and is back in the lineup. Wide receiver Khalil Shakir has taken a considerable leap, and Cleveland’s campaign falling apart means he gets to line up across from Amari Cooper. Allen is on a heater and looks virtually unstoppable.
But…
The defense has wilted in major moments. They have allowed over 35 points three times, including twice since December. Being vulnerable up front unlocks play action and thus facilitates easier completions. At that point, the secondary can only do so much.
Meetings with Kansas City and/or Baltimore would likely pit Buffalo against teams that are comfortable running the ball and going blow for blow on the scoreboard. A healthy Chiefs bunch and a loaded Ravens group pose severe mismatches.
Allen can almost single-handedly put his franchise on his back and win a game or two. It’s inconceivable to think he can do that four times in a row. If Buffalo can get past Baltimore, a date with Kansas City to vanquish their greatest foe becomes more promising.
The Bills are an incredibly entertaining but flawed team. Etching their name in history seems a bridge too far unless Allen can manufacture a miracle.
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