We have finally made it. It’s Week 18 of the NFL season, which means this will be my final regular season prop bet article this year. With not every team playing their starters this week, we have to pick and choose our prop bets based on which games matter. Below are some of my favorite picks on DraftKings Sportsbook.
OVER Picks
QB Jayden Daniels Over 213.5 Pass Yds (-115)
This total is simply too low for Daniels, as he’s gone over this number in three straight games. The Commanders have already clinched a playoff spot, but their seeding is still up in the air. They will travel to Dallas on Sunday, a team that has been getting shredded on defense recently. The Cowboys rank 20th in the NFL against the pass, so all signs point to a big day for Daniels and company.
On the season, Daniels is averaging 220.6 pass yards per game and has gone over this number in 10 starts. I expect him to go over this number fairly comfortably, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Washington blows this one wide open early on.
WR Tyreek Hill Over 50.5 Rec Yds (-115)
I don’t care who the quarterback is or what the matchup is, this total is way too low for someone of Hill’s pedigree. There is a glimmer of hope for Miami to make the playoffs this season, but they need some help from Kansas City against Denver. It’s looking like Tyler Huntley will be under center for Miami, with Tua Tagovailoa dealing with a hip issue.
When the Dolphins played the Jets earlier in the season, Tua was under center, but Hill torched New York for 115 yards and a touchdown. He will need less than half of that total to cash his over this week, and I feel fairly comfortable in him getting enough volume to get over this number.
WR Malik Nabers Over 74.5 Rec Yds (-115)
Malik Nabers has been consistently hitting overs for me, so why stop now? New York has just been playing for pride recently, and this Sunday is no exception. Nabers is coming off his best performance of the season, recording 171 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Colts.
He will now face an Eagles team that is elite against the pass, however they will be benching a ton of starters with their seeding in the NFC already locked in. Nabers has gone over this number in three of his last four starts, and I expect him to do the same this Sunday.
UNDER Picks
QB Caleb Williams Under 197.5 Pass Yds (-115)
Williams has gone under this number in three of his last four games. The Bears are playing for nothing but pride against Green Bay, while the Packers are still playing for better seeding in the NFC. I think Williams and this Bears offense could really struggle on the road in this environment, and I wouldn’t be shocked if this one got late early.
Green Bay has been in the middle of the pack against the pass so far this season, ranking 17th in the NFL in that category. In road games this season, Williams has struggled more than at home, only hitting the over on this number on three occasions.
QB Spencer Rattler Under 195.5 Pass Yds (-115)
Rattler has played in six games for New Orleans in his rookie year, hitting the over on this number on two occasions. He will now face a Tampa Bay defense that is still fighting for the NFC South crown, while the Saints try to play spoiler. The Buccaneers have not been great against the pass all season, but I like their chances against a struggling rookie QB.
Rattler has completed 55.9% of his passes this year and has three touchdown passes to five interceptions. These numbers are not good enough to beat a lot of teams, and I think he will struggle in this one with what’s on the line. Rattler is averaging 179.5 pass yards per game, and I think he will continue to hover around that number after Sunday’s game.
RB Alexander Mattison Under 40.5 Rush Yds (-115)
Mattison is once again the starter in Las Vegas by default, as injuries have plagued their backfield. He has gone under this number in six straight games. You have to go back to October 20th for the last time Mattison had gone over this total when he rushed 23 times for 92 yards. I do not expect that kind of volume for him this week. As for the matchup, it’s fairly average as the Chargers rank 16th in the league against the run.
When these teams matched up in Week 1, Mattison was stymied, rushing five times for only 19 yards. Mattison has had a brutal year, as his 3.2 yards per carry rank dead last in the NFL among qualified rushers. I expect the Chargers to shut him down, and ultimately keep him under this number.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is ciarandoyle77) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
