Week 18 marks the grand finale of the NFL regular season. It will be a messy week of football with some teams having clinched playoff spots, some already eliminated, some playing for their playoff lives and others treating this as a second bye week.
It is important to sort through the motivation of each player and team with the stakes slightly different than normal. Plenty of players have notable incentives they will be seeking to hit while others will see their level of opportunity more limited as the team either rests them for the playoffs or want a longer look at another player.
There were two Saturday games to kick off the week, but a full slate of Sunday games are also set to take place. The Sunday Night matchup between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings will steal plenty of attention as it will decide which of these NFC North foes earns the top seed in the conference and which will be bumped to a Wild Card spot. Soak up the last full week of regular season football before the amount of games gets limited moving forward.
There are far more ways to get involved in the action than just traditional betting. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football! This article will look at my top picks for the Week 18 slate in which you simply choose more or less than the assigned statistic. These picks will specifically look at Sunday’s matchups.
Mike Evans More Than 99.5 Receiving Yards
There will be plenty of attention given to Mike Evans this week. The five-time Pro Bowl wide receiver has 915 receiving yards on the season and will be looking to reach 1,000 yards for the 11th straight season. If he can reach this number, Evans will tie Jerry Rice for the most consecutive 1,000 yards receiving seasons in NFL history. In addition, Evans has financial implications on the line. If he records five more catches in addition to the 85 yards to eclipse 1,000, he will earn a $3 million bonus.
The stakes are well known and Baker Mayfield himself has acknowledged he will do his best to get Evans to 1,000 yards. Tampa Bay is set to face off with the New Orleans Saints which will provide a great opportunity to accomplish this. New Orleans ranks 27th in passing yards allowed and 22nd in net yards per pass attempt this season. While Evans was held to just 34 receiving yards in the first matchup with the Saints, Chris Godwin had 11 receptions for 125 yards and two touchdowns in this game. Godwin’s season was unfortunately cut short due to a dislocated ankle in Week 7.
With a struggling defense and so much at stake for Evans, expect a big performance this week. He has recorded more than 99.5 receiving yards in two of the past five weeks and has reached this number 38 times in his career. It also should be noted that the Buccaneers need a victory or a Falcons loss to cement their playoff spot, so this is more than just a throw-away game. Count on Mayfield to be ready to air it out and for Evans to earn himself some extra money and a chance at NFL history as he records more than 99.5 receiving yards this week.
Michael Penix Jr. More Than 221.5 Passing Yards
There are no financial stakes on the line for Michael Penix Jr, but he must take advantage of every opportunity to close out the season. This will mark Penix’s third week as a starter and the door is not fully closed on the playoffs for Atlanta. The Falcons had the inside track on the playoffs heading into last week but suffered a heartbreaking 30-24 loss to the Washington Commanders. They now need a victory and for the Buccaneers to lose to the Saints to qualify for the postseason.
Across his two starts thus far, Penix has thrown for 202 and 223 passing yards. He has one touchdown and two interceptions across these games. Carolina presents a great opportunity for a true breakout performance for the rookie. This season the Panthers rank dead last in points allowed and yards given up. In addition, they rank 28th in net yards per pass attempt and have given up more passing touchdowns than any other team.
Penix has plenty of arm talent and will receive the opportunity to show this off. The Falcons need to keep him on the proper developmental path even if the keys to the offense were turned over quicker than they planned. While they will hope for a lucky break and a playoff opportunity, the priority of the Falcons is giving Penix something to build off in this game. Expect the Falcons to allow their rookie to let in fly and for Penix to throw for more than 221.5 passing yards for the second consecutive game.
Courtland Sutton Less Than 5.5 Receptions
The Denver Broncos have exceeded expectations this season and control their playoff destiny. They hold a 9-7 record on the season and will clinch a playoff opportunity with a win. It typically is a heated divisional rivalry when they face the Chiefs, but Kansas City will rest its starters after clinching the No. 1 seed with a 15-1 record.
Courtland Sutton has led the team in all receiving categories this season and enters Week 18 with 76 receptions, 983 yards and seven touchdowns. However, he’s averaging 4.8 receptions per game and has been held to less than 5.5 receptions in nine games this season. This includes three consecutive games leading into this week’s matchup.
Denver must be sure to keep its foot on the gas and get the victory over the Chiefs’ backups. Bo Nix has spread the ball around lately and 5.5 is a high standard for receptions. While Kansas City will be resting some notable names on both sides of the ball, its defense has been impressive this season. It ranks second in points allowed and fourth in yards given up on the season. Expect Nix to continue getting all pass catchers involved and for Sutton to be held to five or fewer receptions for the fourth straight game.
Kyler Murray More Than 34.5 Rushing Yards
It has been a frustrating season for Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Murray has had some concerning stretches of play and the team will miss the playoffs with a 7-9 record. There may be some significant conversations about Murray’s future in the offseason and a strong performance would certainly benefit the quarterback.
In addition, Murray has an incentive on the line. If the former No. 1 overall pick can rush for 50 yards and a touchdown in Week 18, he will earn an additional $750,000 bonus. He is averaging 34.4 rushing yards per game this season, but he has rushed for more than 50 yards in five games this year and has five rushing touchdowns. Murray also has rushed for more than 34.5 yards in seven games this year.
Arizona will face off with a San Francisco team that also failed to reach expectations this year. The 49ers hold a 6-10 record and will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2020. Their defense has not carried the expected level of bite this season and they rank 22nd in points allowed, 17th in rushing yards given up and have allowed the second most rushing touchdowns in the NFL.
Murray’s best-rushing output of the season was in the first matchup with the 49ers. In the Week 5 matchup, he rushed for 83 yards and a touchdown, helping to lead the team to a one-point victory. Expect him to rely on his legs and do everything possible to reach this incentive to close out the season. Count on him to record more than 34.5 rushing yards in the process.
Rico Dowdle More Than 61.5 Rushing Yards
It has been a nightmare season for the Cowboys, but Rico Dowdle has emerged as a bright spot. The 26-year-old will look to end the season on a high note and cement his case for why he should be looked at as a key part of the team moving forward. He has gradually taken over the role as the clear-cut top running back for the Cowboys this season.
Dowdle has 213 carries for 1,007 rushing yards and a touchdown. He also has added 37 receptions for 237 receiving yards and three touchdowns through the air. He has especially come on strong in recent weeks, recording 100+ rushing yards in four of the past five weeks. He has seen 18 or more carries in five of the past six games after reaching this number just once across the first nine games.
The Washington Commanders have clinched their playoff spot and are locked into a wild card role. They also have struggled to stop the run this season and rank 28th in rushing yards allowed and 30th in net yards per rush attempt. Dowdle has recorded more than 61.5 rushing yards in seven games this season with five of these occurring across the past seven weeks. Look for him to end the season on a high note and record more than 61.5 rushing yards to wrap up the season.
Zach Ertz More Than 42.5 Receiving Yards
While Washington is locked into a wild card, Zach Ertz has plenty to play for in Week 18. The 34-year-old has quietly had a really solid season. Ertz has caught 61 passes for 610 yards and six touchdowns. He has already cashed in on a $750,000 incentive after the Commanders clinched their playoff spot. However, he can earn an additional $250,000 if he can record nine receptions, 90+ receiving yards or two touchdowns in Week 18. If he can reach all three of these he would cash in for $750,000.
These are lofty goals but expect Ertz to go down swinging. Look for him to record more than 42.5 receiving yards which will be only the start of Ertz’s goals. He has eclipsed this number in five games this season including going for 72 yards and two touchdowns last week.
Washington will face off with the Dallas Cowboys this week who have been a disaster by all accounts. Dallas ranks 31st in points allowed, 28th in yards given up and 29th in net yards per pass attempts. Ertz had six receptions for 38 yards and a touchdown in the first matchup this with the Cowboys. Expect Ertz to leave it all on the field this week and record more than 42.5 receiving yards in the process.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (“Pick Set”) of at least two players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must select players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.Must be at least 18 years or older. Higher age limits may apply in some states. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid only in states where DraftKings Pick6 operates. Void where prohibited. For entertainment purposes only. Winning a contest on DraftKings depends on knowledge and exercise of skill. See terms at pick6.draftkings.com.
