Cleveland Browns at Baltiomore Ravens (Saturday 4:30pm ET)
I have a couple of props for this one, in a game in which the Ravens sit as historic home favorites. Baltimore can secure the AFC North with a win here, while the Browns’ season is over, and almost all their key players will be sidelined. This has all the makings of a blowout, but the Ravens have to be sure to get this win. That means their best players will be on the field.
Kyle Van Noy, who has 11.5 sacks on the season, can earn himself an extra $250,000 in this game if he can record 0.5 sacks. He’s now recorded at least one sack in four straight games, and I expect him to get to Bailey Zappe to the ground on Saturday to make his pockets a bit deeper.
Derrick Henry has both financial incentives and personal motivation for this game. Another touchdown this season will pay out $500,000, which Baltimore will be conscious of in this game. Henry is 217 rushing yards away from a 2,000-yard season, and while that seems crazy, he’s put up massive numbers in the final week of the season when he wants to. Here are some of Henry’s recent numbers from the final game of the season, some of which were to hit personal or financial milestones:
- 2023: 19 carries for 153 yards and a TD
- 2022: 30 carries for 109 yards
- 2021: Injured
- 2020: 34 carries for 250 yards and 2 TDs
- 2019: 32 carries for 211 yards and 3 TDs
This dude likes finishing the regular season strong. Henry enters Saturday coming off games of 147 rushing yards against Houston and 162 versus Pittsburgh. Baltimore will be playing to get some revenge after losing to the Browns earlier this season. Henry ran for just 73 yards in that game, but also had a season-low 11 carries. Cleveland’s run defense ranks fourth-worst in the NFL in road games in terms of yards per game allowed, and will be without some starters. Look for the Ravens to eat on the ground.
The Play: Kyle Van Noy OVER 0.25 Sacks (-145) – 0.75-units
The Play: Derrick Henry OVER 89.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – 1-unit
Saturday Add: Derrick Henry 70+ Rushing Yards/Anytime TD (-130) – 1-unit
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The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
