Week 18 of the NFL season will start on Saturday with a matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens.
These teams have the opposite outlook on the season. Baltimore has officially clinched a playoff spot but the results of this matchup will decide their seeding. With a victory, the Ravens will win the division and earn the AFC’s third seed. They also would keep this spot if the Steelers lose to the Bengals in the Saturday night game. If the Steelers win and the Ravens lose, Pittsburgh will take the division title and drop the Ravens to a wild card spot.
The stakes are not as high for the Cleveland Browns who enter with a 3-13 record and are currently slated to have the third pick in the draft. Cleveland has been guarded with their outlook at quarterback with head coach Kevin Stefanski hinting that both Bailey Zappe and Dorian Thompson-Robinson could see snaps under center earlier this week. Zappe will officially get the start, making him the fourth quarterback to start for Cleveland this year, but there are plenty of problems with this Browns team than just the quarterback.
The Ravens enter this game as 19.5-point favorites in the matchup. The Browns are +1300 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 41.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Saturday afternoon matchup.
Lamar Jackson Under 44.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Lamar Jackson is expected to suit up at quarterback as usual this week but expect a more limited approach than his typical workload. Getting the win will be the most important factor for the Ravens, but there should not be much resistance in this matchup.
On the season overall, Jackson is averaging 53.3 rushing yards on 8.1 rushing attempts per game. Expect limiting hits or potential plays that he could get injured on to be at the top of the list of priorities with the chances of them locking up the division very high. Even if he does receive a full workload, Jackson has been held to under 44.5 rushing yards in five games this year.
Cleveland ranks 19th in the league in rushing yards allowed this season and 15th in net yards per rush attempt. Jackson’s ability to ad-lib and take off puts him in a slightly different category than these numbers generally impact, but expect this to be an area of the playbook the Ravens hope not to be utilized. The 19.5-point spread is extremely telling for what this game’s results should be and it is in the Ravens’ best interest to get Jackson out of the game once the result is well within reach.
While there is a world in which Lamar Jackson leaves one last MVP performance to cement his case, expect the bigger goals to be reflected on and for his opportunity to be limited in this game. Count on him to remain under 44.5 rushing yards against the Browns and be prepared to take in the remainder of the game from the sideline once the lead is built.
Elijah Moore Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
The Cleveland Browns made another quarterback change this week with Bailey Zappe stepping into the starting lineup. This will mark the ninth career start for the former Patriots quarterback with his last NFL snap occurring in the final game last year. While Zappe should not be looked at as a knight in shining armor to save the Browns’ offense, it is tough to imagine he will be worse than what was seen from Dorian Thompson-Robinson in recent weeks. Across his past two games as a starter, Thompson-Robinson completed 44 of his 81 pass attempts for 327 passing yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions.
Expect Zappe to provide a boost to each member of the wide receiver group. While Jerry Jeudy will headline the passing attack, I like Elijah Moore to record over 23.5 receiving yards as my favorite prop bet for the Browns’ pass catchers. On the season Moore has caught 58 receptions for 502 yards and a touchdown. He has recorded over 23.5 receiving yards in seven of the 16 games he has played.
The Ravens deserve credit for their defensive improvements as the season has progressed. But looking at the season-long sample size they rank 30th in passing yards allowed. It will also be interesting to see how long their key pieces in the secondary stay on the field especially if this game is put out of reach early. While the pathway to their goals is clear for the Ravens, the opposite is true for players like Elijah Moore and Bailey Zappe. Expect both to put their best performance on the field as they look to cement a role in the NFL and for Mitchell to record over 23.5 receiving yards in the process.
Keaton Mitchell Anytime TD (+175)
While Lamar Jackson’s MVP level of performance is the story for the Ravens this season, they are still a run-first football team. Derrick Henry has added another dimension to this dangerous offense and will be on the field to start this Week 18 matchup. However, Henry falls in the same category as Jackson as a player that Baltimore will look to pull early and preserve for the playoff once the game is under control.
Typically it would be Justice Hill stepping into the primary running back role without Henry, but Hill has been ruled out for his second consecutive game. Expect this to open the door for Keaton Mitchell to see an expanded role and have a chance for his first touchdown of the season.
In last week’s matchup with the Texans, Mitchell saw some expanded opportunity with Hill out. He had 11 carries and one reception which came out to 48 yards from scrimmage. Mitchell had nearly 400 rushing yards last year in addition to 11 receptions. Expect him to make the most of his opportunity and for Baltimore to be more willing to give him a chance as they limit the hits on Derrick Henry. Jump on the +175 odds for Mitchell to find the end zone just as he did twice last season and for the East Carolina product to be one of the biggest winners of Week 18.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
