The final week of the NFL season is here with plenty at stake. Teams around the league will be playing for their final playoff spots while some have already been faced with the brutal reality that their season is over.
It also becomes more important than ever to monitor the injury reports and know which teams have a lot at stake and which will mostly use this week as rest. Players like Patrick Mahomes and Saquon Barkley are expected to remain on the sideline as they prepare for the playoffs. This also creates some intriguing value options on the DFS market as we may see some unfamiliar names get extended opportunities.
There are two games taking place on Saturday. In the first game, the Baltimore Ravens will face the Cleveland Browns. The Ravens have clinched a playoff appearance but will clinch the division with a victory. In the later game, the Cincinnati Bengals will need a victory and some help to reach their postseason aspiration. They will take on the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are chasing the Ravens for the AFC North title.
These additional games create another opportunity for a DraftKings Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) Showdown slate. Here is a look at some DFS value plays that could greatly outproduce their salaries in DraftKings Saturday contests.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.2M Saturday Special [$300K to 1st].
Khalil Herbert ($5,100)
The Cincinnati Bengals will not have the luxury of resting their starters as they will need a win and some help for their playoff aspirations to come to life. They will face the Steelers on Saturday night and, assuming they get the win, will need the Dolphins and Broncos both to lose to qualify for the postseason.
Chase Brown ($7,600) has been excellent in the backfield for the Bengals in recent weeks, but his status is fully up in the air. Brown suffered an ankle injury last week when he awkwardly went down at the 1-yard line to preserve time in the game. Cincinnati has been tight-lipped with his status, but he has been diagnosed with a high ankle sprain, which is typically a multi-week injury. If Brown can gut it out and play, expect him to be limited and not possess his typical level of speed and elusiveness.
Enter Khalil Herbert, who is second on the depth chart at running back. He has tallied just eight rushing attempts this season, but four of these came last week. Herbert is a capable running back who also excels as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. He had his best years with the Bears, which included as many as 788 yards from scrimmage back in 2022. Expect the Bengals to embrace the next-man-up mentality with Chase battling a legitimate issue and for Herbert to greatly outperform his price point of $5,100.
Keaton Mitchell ($4,300)
The Baltimore Ravens will kick off the Week 18 slate with the Saturday afternoon matchup. They will clinch the division title with a victory and will be playing their usual starters as the game kicks off. However, expect the Ravens to be ready to pull their notable names once the game is under control. Facing the 3-13 Cleveland Browns who are starting their fourth quarterback of the season, the Ravens should not face much resistance this game.
Lamar Jackson ($8,000) will be the first player Baltimore is looking to limit injury risk on, but Derrick Henry ($8,300) is not far behind. The prized offseason addition trails only Saquon Barkley for the most rushing yards this season and is third in the NFL in carries. In addition, Justice Hill has been ruled out for the second consecutive game.
Keaton Mitchell saw an increased opportunity last week without Hill. He tallied 11 rushing attempts and one reception for 48 total yards from scrimmage. This has been his only action on the season, but Mitchell did run for 396 yards and added 98 receiving yards last season with Baltimore. Expect the Ravens to unleash the 22-year-old more in this matchup once the game is under control. Don’t be shocked if he statistically outperforms Henry depending on how the opportunities are split up. Mitchell has shown some nice flashes in a limited sample size. Expect him to make the most of his chances and be one of the biggest winners of Week 18.
Elijah Moore ($3,800)
Bailey Zappe ($4,500) will get the start under center for the Cleveland Browns this week. This will mark the ninth career start for the former Patriots quarterback with his last NFL snap occurring in the final week of last year. While Zappe still has plenty of limits on his abilities, it is tough to imagine he will be worse than what was seen from Dorian Thompson-Robinson of late. Across his past two games as the starter, DTR completed 44 of his 81 passes for 327 passing yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions.
Expect each of the pass-catchers to benefit from Zappe being thrown into the starting lineup. He is far from perfect but is a more willing passer with a better arm than Thompson-Robinson. While Jerry Jeudy ($6,400) will headline the passing attack, look for Elijah Moore to play a notable role as well. On the season, Moore has tallied 58 receptions for 502 yards and a touchdown.
To their credit, the Ravens have improved their defense as the season has progressed. But looking at the season-long sample size, Baltimore ranks 30th in passing yards allowed. It also will be interesting to see how long their key pieces of the secondary stay on the field. As an organization, the Browns are ready to turn the page to next year, but these games still matter for players like Zappe and Moore as they look to cement their future NFL opportunities. Moore has had a 111-yard performance already this season and is more than capable of producing if given the chance. Expect Zappe to air it out plenty, especially if the Browns are playing from behind, and for Moore to outperform his $3,800 pricepoint.
Nelson Agholor ($3,400)
It is Week 18 so let’s get weird. The Ravens’ wide receiver pecking order has been a bit hard to figure out all season. Nine different pass-catchers have tallied over 100 receiving yards on the season with Nelson Agholor included in this mix. Overall, he has tallied 14 receptions for 231 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Agholor is a big play threat who has battled drop issues throughout his career, but has the talent to make his impact felt in this game.
While players like Zay Flowers ($6,200) and Rashod Bateman ($4,600) likely will not be as protected as Jackson or Henry, expect Agholor to see increased opportunity. The former 20th overall pick missed the past two games with a concussion but was a full participant in practice all week and is cleared to play. He has logged over 50% of the offensive snaps in four games this season and this week should be added to this list.
The highest receiving output for Agholor this season has been 36 yards. But his current output of 231 yards on the season would be the lowest season-long total of his career, and he has seven games with over 100 yards receiving in his career. Expect Agholor to step up and make the most of the Week 18 opportunity after missing the previous two games, and for him to be higher in the offensive pecking order than is typically the case.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
