The AFC North will finally be decided on Saturday, and perhaps in the first game of the slate.
With a 31-2 victory over the Houston Texans on Christmas Day, the Baltimore Ravens edged ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers atop the AFC North and will have a chance to close the deal on Saturday with a home game against the hapless Cleveland Browns. If Baltimore wins, it will be the No. 3 seed in the AFC and will host either the Steelers or the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round. If the Ravens lose, they can still win the division if Pittsburgh loses to the Cincinnati Bengals later Saturday. If Baltimore loses and the Steelers win, it will be the No. 5 seed and travel to face the Houston Texans next weekend.
However, it would frankly be a travesty if the Ravens didn’t win. Having long been eliminated from postseason contention, Cleveland has nothing to play for and is starting fourth-string quarterback Bailey Zappe ahead of Dorian Thompson-Robinson with Jameis Winston banged up. Baltimore is a whopping 19.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 41.5.
DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for the big game, so I’ll take you through my two captain’s picks, two FLEX picks, and one fade. Let’s dive in:
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Lamar Jackson ($18,000 CP) – I almost considered not picking Jackson, because there’s a real chance that he might run out to a massive lead early against the Browns and, with the Ravens’ win secured, sit for most of the fourth quarter.
But jumping out to a huge lead would require Jackson to put up at least some stats. He only played three quarters in the win over the Texans and still completed 10 of his 15 passes for 168 yards and two touchdowns, adding four carries for 87 yards and another score. It was another efficient game in a historic season; his 121.6 passer rating in 2024 is the second-highest single-season passer rating in NFL history, behind only Aaron Rodgers’ 122.5 in 2011.
Jackson has a relatively easy matchup against a mediocre Cleveland defense that has allowed the 16th-most FPTS to opposing quarterbacks. Signal-callers have only completed 62.6% of their passes against the Browns, the sixth-lowest rate in the league, but have been effective when they have done so, earning 7.6 yards per attempt, the fifth-highest in football. Overall, Cleveland has conceded 3,661 yards and 24 touchdowns, which are both around league average.
Jerry Jeudy ($14,700 CP) – The fifth-year Alabama product has broken out this season after being traded from the Denver Broncos to the Browns in the offseason. He has caught 84 passes this season for 1,166 yards and four touchdowns despite having Deshaun Watson, Winston, and Thompson-Robinson as his quarterbacks. Jeudy’s performance earned him his first career Pro Bowl selection.
Jeudy’s fantasy ceiling on Saturday might not be as high with Zappe at quarterback than it would be with Winston or Thompson-Robinson. Zappe hasn’t suited up for the Browns yet, but over two seasons with the New England Patriots, he completed just 63.2% of his passes for 2,053 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions while averaging just 4.48 adjusted net yards per attempt. Winston is, at minimum, a more aggressive passer who could maximize Jeudy’s athletic gifts.
Still, while Zappe isn’t a great quarterback, it’s not like Winston, Watson, or Thompson-Robinson is elite either. Even with Zappe, Jeudy will be just fine against a Baltimore secondary that has allowed 4,285 yards to opposing receivers this season, the second-most of any team. The Ravens have also conceded 26 touchdown passes this season, more than all but seven teams. Overall, Baltimore has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season.
FLEX Plays
Zay Flowers ($9,600) – Of the Ravens’ league-leading nine Pro Bowl selections, perhaps the most surprising was second-year wide receiver Zay Flowers, who became the first Baltimore wideout selected to the league’s All-Star showcase. Even if the wide receiver nod arguably should’ve gone to Jacksonville Jaguars rookie Brian Thomas Jr., Flowers has still been solid in 2024, recording 73 catches for 1,047 yards and four touchdowns.
Flowers wasn’t asked to do a ton in the Ravens’ Christmas Day win over the Texans, catching only two passes for 31 yards, but overall, he has had five 100-yard games this season, tied with Puka Nacua and Terry McLaurin for the most in the league. He’s by far Jackson’s favorite target, leading the team with a 27.0% target share, 11.9 percentage points higher than Rashod Bateman. Although he’s far from a guarantee to find paydirt — overall, Jackson distributes his throws into the end zone pretty evenly between Flowers, Bateman, and tight ends Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely — he still puts up enough statistical output to be worth a play.
Flowers should have an easy time against a Browns defense that gives up the sixth-most points to opposing wide receivers and will be missing three-time Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward due to a shoulder injury. Beyond Ward, Cleveland’s secondary is extremely thin; per Pro Football Focus, the best cornerback on the Browns’ roster without an injury designation for Saturday’s game is Martin Emerson Jr., the fourth-worst qualified back in football. Flowers torched Cleveland the first time the two teams matched up this season, pulling in seven catches for 115 yards.
Derrick Henry ($11,800) – Like with Jackson, I’ll keep this one simple. Henry is arguably the most unstoppable running back in the game and a future Hall of Famer who is putting up the most efficient season of his career. It doesn’t matter who he’s playing; Henry will step up and deliver.
I picked him as a FLEX play two weeks ago against the Pittsburgh, noting that while the Steelers had a strong rush defense, Derrick Henry was Derrick Henry. His stats in that game? 24 carries for 162 yards. To be clear, the Browns’ defense is pretty good, and in their first matchup, Henry was held to just 73 yards and a score on 11 carries, one of his least productive games of the season. Cleveland does allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, but it’s still plenty exploitable, allowing the 14th-most yards (1,985) and fifth-most touchdowns (20) on the ground.
Like Jackson and Flowers, I have concerns that Henry won’t play the entire game if it seems that the result is secure. But Henry touched the ball only three times in the fourth quarter on Christmas Day and still put up 147 yards and a touchdown in his three quarters of action. As bad as the Browns are, he’ll still play at least three quarters, which should be plenty enough to inflict damage.
Fades
Bailey Zappe ($8,000) – Why did I make Cleveland’s No. 1 receiver a Captain’s Pick while fading his signal-caller entirely?
The difference is value. While Jeudy is a Pro Bowl-caliber player, easily worth the $9,800 (or $14,700 as Captain) it would take to add him to your roster, Zappe has not proven himself to be an NFL-quality quarterback. Jeudy has produced big numbers even with Thompson-Robinson — also not an NFL-quality quarterback — throwing passes to him.
Zappe will also split some QB1 duties with Thompson-Robinson, although head coach Kevin Stefanski hasn’t yet revealed how many snaps Thompson-Robinson will get. The time share will depress Zappe’s stats even more, and they probably weren’t going to be great to begin with.
To estimate his stats, let’s assume that he would be similar to Thompson-Robinson, who has completed 54% of his passes for 327 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions across his two starts. Now, figure that he gets 75% of Cleveland’s snaps on Saturday, with Thompson-Robinson getting the other 25%. You’re left with 122 passing yards and no touchdowns, which would be nowhere near enough to justify his $8,000 price tag (it goes without saying that playing Thompson-Robinson for $8,600 would be a mistake as well).
THE OUTCOME
Saturday’s game has the biggest point spread of the NFL season for a reason; it’s one of the league’s best teams going up against one of its worst. Baltimore has looked more or less unstoppable in recent weeks and will present a difficult out for any team in the postseason. Meanwhile, the Browns have been completely out of sorts since benching Winston.
This game should simply be a coronation for the Ravens, who will all but sew up the AFC North title before the end of the third quarter. Jackson will secure the single-season passer rating mark. After that, he, Henry, and Flowers will let their backups handle it the rest of the way.
Cleveland will have a lot of tough questions to answer in the offseason, given Watson’s albatross of a contract, but it might have a quick pathway to improvement. Combined with a loss to Baltimore, a New England Patriots victory over the Buffalo Bills — who will be resting most of their starters — and a Tennessee Titans victory over the Houston Texans would deliver the Browns the first overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft and their choice of Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward.
My prediction: Cleveland’s pick will land at No. 3, but it’ll trade up to first overall, take Sanders, and he’ll be the starter in 2025 with Winston as his backup.
Final Score: Baltimore 34, Cleveland 3
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All views expressed are my own. I am a promoter at DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
