GPPs are not won by using all the most popular players on the slate. Being a contrarian in a big-field event can help separate your lineup and gain you leverage over the field when some of the more popular names bust. The goal of this article won’t be to highlight the popular “play-it-safe” NFL names your dad talks about at family dinner.
No. Us? We’re looking for some diamonds in the rough. Guys that no one talks about—not even their own coaches.
OK, we’re not going that deep, but you get the idea—lower ownership and high upside. We’re looking for players who we feel good about, but still make us feel alive inside. That’s the goal.
Let’s dive into Week 18.
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Top DFS Stack
Game Stack: Panthers vs. Falcons
Bryce Young ($5,800) – Bijan Robinson ($7,500) – Adam Thielen ($5,700) – Jalen Coker ($4,100)
The Carolina Panthers shut down their lead RB last week and only ran the ball 10 times with their RBs. While Bryce Young had a down day, it’s still a bullish setup for him in Week 18 facing off against a Falcons defense that has allowed the second-most passing TDs this season. The Panthers can also play the role of spoiler here by winning and officially eliminating the Falcons from the playoffs, so motivation shouldn’t be an issue. Given that Young also brings some underrated rushing ability, this looks like a great spot to deploy him and the Carolina passing game in GPPs this week.
If we’re starting with Young, then playing Adam Thielen again (who was part of our stack last week) is a no-brainer. Thielen has now found the end zone three times in his last two games, and was the only Panther to see an end zone target last week vs. the Buccaneers. The Falcons are a terrific matchup as they have allowed a 69.61% completion percentage to opposing QBs this season, and ceded the most TDs to opposing WRs in the entire league (21). Having now caught 5+ passes in five straight games, it’s hard to see the downside of playing him at these levels.
Given the Falcons’ woes in the secondary and the rate at which Young has been targeting his WRs, I’d also consider doubling up in this spot with Jalen Coker. Coker’s target share dipped last week, but he’s the proverbial big play option of this offense, especially with Xavier Legette banged up. At just $4,100, he won’t need to do a ton to return value, but if he does reel off another big TD like he did in Week 15 (24.0 DKFP) then he’ll be one of the best values on the entire slate.
As for the Falcons, I can’t see them not giving Bijan Robinson all the work he can handle in this spot. He’s been carrying the offense down the stretch, producing 90+ rush yards in five straight games and six TDs over that same span. The Panthers remain the worst rush defense in the league (32nd in success rate and EPA vs. the run) and are an A++ matchup for a dynamic back like Robinson.
The fact we’re offsetting Robinson’s high salary by using the cheaper Carolina passing game only makes it easier to fit him in and, if he does go off, it will only make the chances that Young and his receivers go off as well.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers ($5,600)
Rodgers is stuck on 499 passing TDs and facing a Dolphins defense he beat handily a few weeks ago, going for 339 yards and a TD against them in Week 14.
Even though the Jets’ record is terrible, if you look back at Rodgers’ game log since Davante Adams came to town, his production hasn’t been that bad. He’s thrown for multiple passing TDs in 5/10 games (50% hit rate) and went for over 30.0 DKFP just three starts ago vs. the Jaguars.
With Adams’ salary still very affordable, I do think this is a spot where you could deploy the duo and hope some old magic appears for the Jets’ final game. At the very least, Rodgers is cost-effective, and his salary is likely too low after that poor game vs. Buffalo. I do like taking advantage by using Rodgers/Adams stacks this week.
Running Back
Bucky Irving ($7,700)
The Buccaneers are nearly two TD favorites vs. the Saints this week and have scored 24+ points in six straight games, and over 40 points in two of their last three games. In short, you need some exposure to their offense this week, and Irving gives you that in spades. The rookie RB has averaged 18 carries and 3.5 receptions over his last two games as he’s taken control of the main early-down work over Rachaad White.
Add in the fact that he’ll be up against a Saints defense that is just playing out the string and ranks 30th in success rate vs. the run, and you could see Irving produce an epic kind of day that makes him the must-play RB of this slate. He’ll likely be popular, but Irving is still a player I’d rather be overweight on in this spot than under.
Michael Carter ($4,700)
With James Conner on IR and rookie Trey Benson out, the backfield for the Cardinals is likely to be dominated by Michael Carter, the former Jets running back who handled most of the early down passing duties when Conner went out in Week 17.
The Cardinals have one of the better rushing schemes in the league (9th in EPA per rush) so any RB getting inserted into this spot would be useful. Carter has also looked half-decent when given touches and has the big edge of having played and practiced in this system all season.
The matchup vs the 49ers is also very solid, as they’re just 28th in EPA per rush on defense. Carter is a smash value and a great core play to build around for Week 18.
Wide Receiver
Brian Thomas Jr. ($7,300)
I put Thomas in this spot last week and destroyed for the third week in a row, posting 23.9 DKFP, his third straight game with 23+ DKFP.
The Jaguars/ number one wideout has now averaged an obscene 12.5 targets over his last four games and posted 90+ yards and 4 TDs in his last three starts. For the season, he’s now gone over 20.0 DK FPTS six times and gone over 30.0 DK FPTS in two of his last three games with Mac Jones at the helm.
Indianapolis’ secondary completely fell apart last week, allowing Malik Nabers to go for 171 yards and two TDs and Thomas is just as tough (if not tougher) a cover. I don’t see any reason not to run him back with his price still under 7.5k.
Marvin Mims ($4,600)
Mims has asserted himself as the Broncos’ most potent slot receiver and set career highs in snaps played in consecutive weeks now, playing 30 snaps in the OT loss to the Bengals in Week 17. What’s impressive about Mims’ breakout (33.2 DKFP last week) is that even though he’s only playing 50% of the snaps, his recent usage has still skyrocketed. He saw a 27% target share in Week 17 and has now earned 4+ targets in six straight starts.
Mims is also getting used all over the field on short routes and deep balls, giving him the ability to both be an accumulator for PPR scoring and an upside threat who can return value off one play. I don’t see any downside in playing him at this price point against the Chiefs this week, whose secondary has been lax down the stretch and will be resting starters in this spot.
Tight End
Jake Ferguson ($3,900)
There will likely be a lot of eyes on the other TE in this game, Zach Ertz, who is coming off a 2-TD game and still has some bonus money he can achieve with another big performance. However, the better matchup exists for Jake Ferguson in this spot, who remains one of the primary targets in this Cowboys offense now that CeeDee Lamb is out.
Ferguson and Cooper Rush haven’t connected for any big games yet, but this week is a fine spot for that to happen. Washington allows over 10.0 yards per reception to opposing TEs and has also allowed the fourth most TDs (8) to the position this season. From a game theory perspective, I doubt Ferguson will have much ownership given he’s been under 10.0 DKFP in five of his last six games. He’s a low-owned and still relatively cheap option for GPPs in Week 18.
Defense/Special Teams
Giants D/ST ($2,400)
I know it’s the Giants, but the Eagles are committed to starting third-string QB Tanner McKee in this spot, which makes any DST that is facing Philadelphia this week worth considering. New York has had a miserable season by any standards but did rise up last week and beat the Colts, on the back of some big defensive and special teams plays (including a kick return TD).
I’m not suggesting that lightning will strike twice in this spot, but with an inexperienced QB at the helm, the odds of a pick 6 kind of event happening go up significantly. At under 2.5k, the Giants look like a great cheap DST option to deploy for Week 18.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
