These are my picks to win every Week 18 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier. You can bet on any of these games at DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 18 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Ravens over Browns- The Ravens are currently 16.5-point favorites over the Browns at DraftKings Sportsbook. If they close at that number or better, they will be the biggest favorites of the entire NFL season. This will be the first game of the Saturday doubleheader and the Ravens can clinch the division with a win. They will be highly motivated to pick up this win and should have no problem beating this Browns team, which has been terrible with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback.
Buccaneers over Saints- The Bucs can win the NFC South with a win in this spot. The Saints have really struggled over the past few weeks as they have dealt with a boatload of injuries, especially on offense. The Bucs have been playing really well on both sides of the ball and should be able to handle New Orleans and clinch a playoff spot.
Packers over Bears- The Packers can improve from the seven-seed to the six-seed with a win and a Washington loss on Sunday. That is the difference between playing the Rams or playing the Eagles so it is very important for Green Bay. It will be motivated in this game and will look to sweep the Bears in the regular-season series.
Falcons over Panthers- The Falcons can still win the NFC South with a win and a Tampa Bay loss in this game. Atlanta and Tampa Bay will be playing at the same time so Atlanta will be playing the entire game motivated by its playoff hopes. Michael Penix Jr. has played pretty well so far and the Panthers are starting to struggle in the past several weeks so Atlanta should get the win.
Broncos over Chiefs- The Chiefs will be rolling out their backups for this game, including Carson Wentz at quarterback. Meanwhile, the Broncos need to win to secure a playoff spot so they will be ultra-motivated in this spot. The Broncos in their home building should be able to limit the Kansas City offense and have enough to beat the Kansas City backups.
Medium Confidence
Seahawks over Rams- The Rams have already won the division and are expected to be resting some players, including Matthew Stafford. The Seahawks are starting all of their players and will want to end their season on a positive note. Geno Smith has some contract incentives that he can hit in this game, so he should have a big game and get his team a win.
Chargers over Raiders- The Chargers have already secured a playoff berth but Jim Harbaugh has not announced that any of the Chargers’ starters will be resting yet. If the Chargers’ starters play, they should win this game with ease. Even if some backups see some action in this game, the Chargers have a lot of depth at different positions and should find a way to win against a bad Raiders team.
Commanders over Cowboys- The Commanders can secure the six-seed with a win over the Cowboys. That means they won’t have to travel to Philadelphia to take on their division rivals in the postseason and can instead take on the Rams or Buccaneers. That should be enough motivation to get a win against the Cowboys who looked really bad last week.
Cardinals over 49ers- The Cardinals and 49ers have both been eliminated from playoff contention. However, the 49ers will be without Brock Purdy in this game and with Joshua Dobbs, this offense could really struggle. This is a divisional rivalry game and the Cardinals will want to pick up a victory to end the season despite the lack of implications.
Jaguars over Colts- The Colts should be dead in this spot. They put forward a horrific performance last week to lose to the Giants and get eliminated from playoff contention. They have nothing to play for and should be in a really bad mental spot for this game. Meanwhile, Mac Jones is looking slightly more competent in this offense and the Jaguars picked up a win last week. They should carry that momentum over and beat a lifeless Colts team.
Bills over Patriots- The Bills are expected to rest some of their starters for this game. Josh Allen is technically going to get the start to continue his streak of games started but will quickly get benched for Mitch Trubisky. Trubisky has been in this system for several years now and is on the more competent end of backup QBs in the league. Drake Maye was banged up last week and there is a chance he will miss this game. Trubisky will want to show something and try to get a win, while the Patriots would probably rather lose this game at the end of the day to improve their draft stock.
Coin-Flip Games
Jets over Dolphins- The Dolphins are likely to be without Tua Tagovailoa in this game. The Jets have a lot of issues on defense but Tyler Huntley cannot really expose those issues. The Jets’ offense has been solid over the second half of the season and they should be able to put up points against Miami. As long as Tagovailoa doesn’t play, I would lean toward the Jets winning this game.
Bengals over Steelers- The Bengals and Steelers play after the Ravens and Browns on Saturday. If the Ravens win that game, which they almost certainly will, then the Steelers will have nothing to play for. They are in the postseason no matter what but would be out of the divisional race. They could still secure their seeding with a win in this spot and they would love to spoil the Bengals’ season, but their energy levels would certainly drop after seeing that the Ravens won. The Bengals are fighting for their playoff lives and would love to put the pressure on the Dolphins and Broncos on Sunday.
Giants over Eagles- The Eagles could be starting Tanner McKee in this game. They are fully locked into the two-seed so they have absolutely nothing to play for. They won’t risk rushing Jalen Hurts back from his concussion or even risk worsening the injury to Kenny Pickett’s ribs in case they need him again in the postseason. This should be a McKee game with a lot of other Eagles starters resting. The Giants will have some confidence after last week’s win over the Colts and should win another one here.
Texans over Titans- The Texans are locked into the four-seed here so they have no motivation, but that doesn’t matter against the Titans. The Titans are horrible on both sides of the ball and even if Davis Mills is leading the Texans, Houston will still have advantages over Tennessee. If anything, Mills will relish the opportunity to start a game and will want to put forward a top-tier effort. The Titans will lose this game because that is what the Titans have done all season.
Lions over Vikings- The best game of the weekend is also the hardest one to pick. There can’t really be bigger stakes in a regular-season game where both teams have already clinched a spot in the postseason. The winner gets the No. 1 seed, a first-round bye and home-field advantage through the NFC playoffs. The loser gets the five-seed and needs to go on the road in the first round of the playoffs. Ultimately, the Lions have been the better team all season, beat the Vikings in the first matchup and should be able to do so in this game as well. However, it should be incredibly tight and could be decided on who has the ball last.
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is blakekrass) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and cannot access any non-public information.
