The Sentry kicks off the 2025 PGA TOUR season. The field for the Sentry this season will go off around 60 players. The qualification has grown in size as the PGA TOUR now allows all winners from the previous season to enter this event, along with any player who finished inside the top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings last year.
As for the course, it will still played on the massive Plantation Course in Kapalua, Maui. The venue is wide open and located directly by the ocean which means trade winds can vastly affect how the venue plays each day. Here is a little bit of what I wrote about the Plantation Course in my Golf Cheat Sheet I wrote earlier in the week.
“The Plantation course can best be described as a mix of big vast holes that require some thought and patience to navigate and shorter score-able holes that will provide great birdie chances for those whose tee-to-green game and driving prowess is not lacking in confidence.
There are some Par 4’s here that allow players to drive either near the green—leaving less than full wedge or a mere chip for a second-shot—or directly onto it but with the recent changes we’ve also seen many of these holes become tougher…
The Bermuda greens can also be tricky. They’re bigger than average for a Tour event and have undulations that sometimes mirror the rest of the course. Green speeds here are generally tame by Tour standards at an average of 10-10.5 on the stimpmeter although the big undulations and green side runoffs do make scrambling tough and the field here generally gets up and down at a lower rate than the Tour average (which is around 57%).”
Thursday is set to be the windiest day of the event with gusts getting into the 15-20mph range. Still, even with a little wind the course should yield plenty of birdies. I’m not going to get too aggressive with the birdie props this week but instead will be relying on course history and recent form for some of the picks.
We’ll try to sort through all that chaos and find the best edges this week below.
SungJae Im Less Than 10.5 Pars
Im has had a lot of success at the Plantation Course throughout his career. The South Korean has finished T5, T13, and T8 at this event over the last three seasons and has put together some big rounds over that span. That’s often led to some colorful scorecards that include lots of birdies, eagles, and the occasional bogey.
Last season, in four rounds of play Im went comfortably under this 10.5 Par total in all four rounds and I’m apt to think he likely stays true to his trend of racking up birdies this week. He’s coming off a decent fall/playoff stretch and should be motivated to get off to a good start after going winless last year. I’d stick with the trends and like the less-than side on Im’s par total for Round 1.
Robert MacIntyre Less Than 10.5 Pars
Much like Im, I see MacIntyre as a player who should be able to rack up plenty of birdies on this course. The Scotsman is all the way up to 14th in the OWGR and he’s achieved that lofty height partly by going low on these easier courses which reward aggressiveness. With the extra par 5 in play this week I doubt we’ll see many boring scorecards from MacIntyre who tends to be very hot or cold with his scoring.
If he comes in less than prepared, the bogies may also start to rack up quickly given this is his first time playing the Plantation Course. I see this as a double-edge sword in our favor as he also has the chance to be one of the leaders in the clubhouse given his ability to shape off the tee and the huge fairways in play this week.
Wyndham Clark Less Than 1.5 Bogeys or Worse
Clark didn’t have the greatest end to 2024 but the American is still a top-10 player in the OWGR and should be motivated to get his new season off to a good start this week. He’s had plenty of success playing at other open seaside venues, grabbing his third career win last season at Pebble Beach. Last season, finished T29 at this event, but all four of his rounds were under par and he finished with a 63.
Two of those four rounds also saw him finish with one or fewer bogies. As of writing, Clarks’ also ranked 4th in bogey avoidance over the last 24 rounds of play which showcases his strength on the greens where his putter can often save him from true blowup rounds. Ultimately, Clark just feels undervalued with his total at this number making the less than a play for me in Round 1.
Keegan Bradley More than 68.5 Strokes
I mentioned the wind may be heavier in Round 1 which could suppress scoring just a touch. I would still shy away from playing too many More Than on Round 1 totals but I think choosing some players to fade is a good idea. Bradley had a strong playoffs, notching a win at the BNW Championships, but he’s never had much success at this venue. His last two starts at the Plantation have seen him finish T45 and T34 and both of those performances have seen him lose over -4.0 strokes putting.
The big greens here just don’t suit Bradley who has improved his putting over his career but remains a below-average lag putter. With the winds up on Day 1, his round total looked like the most obvious fade to me as he’s only gone lower than 68.5 strokes in one of his last seven rounds at Plantation.
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