Update: Rudy Gobert was listed as questionable due to personal reasons, not traveling with the team due to the birth of his child. He was unable to make the trip to Denver for this game and has been ruled out. The Nuggets are now 6.5-point favorites and the total comes in at 209.5. I still like Denver as the ATS pick and the under on the total.
The Minnesota Timberwolves will attempt to take both games on the road to begin this series when they face the Denver Nuggets Monday evening in Game 2. Minnesota has let Anthony Edwards take the reins and the star forward has delivered, going for at least 40 points in back-to-back playoff road games. The Nuggets looked lethargic at times in the series opener and likely felt they could execute in clutch time once again to get the win, but the Timberwolves beat them at their own game. That sets up what is essentially a must-win game for the defending champions.
Both teams are clean on the day-to-day injury front. The Nuggets have listed Jamal Murray as questionable with a calf strain but he’s expected to play as he hasn’t missed any time with the injury.
The Nuggets are 5.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook and the total comes in at 206.5. Denver is -218 on the moneyline while Minnesota is +180.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets, 10 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Nuggets -5.5
Picking against the Timberwolves, especially with the way Edwards is playing, seems like a fool’s errand. The forward has taken over as the team leader and it makes Minnesota a dangerous squad in the postseason. However, this is basically a must-win game for the Nuggets. Going down 2-0 with the series shifting back to Minnesota would be disastrous. This Denver team hasn’t really been backed into a corner yet during this championship window but this is the moment where players like Nikola Jokic and Murray need to show why they’re stars. I think Edwards continues to keep the Timberwolves in the mix but the Nuggets punch back and level this series Monday evening.
Over/Under: Under 206.5
Game 1 barely stayed under this total thanks to a late scoring flurry from both teams. Denver home unders have usually hit this season, with the Nuggets going 19-26 to the over. I do think the Nuggets shoot better overall, specifically Murray, while the Timberwolves cool off a bit. That balance should be enough to keep this game under, even though Denver might play with more pace to change things up from Game 1.