Update: Allen has been ruled out, while Wade is in for Cleveland. The line has shifted slightly to Celtics -7.5 and the total remains 211. I’ll still roll with Cleveland as the ATS pick and the under on the total.
The Cleveland Cavaliers got a crucial split after the first two games of their second-round series in the 2024 NBA Playoffs against the Boston Celtics, setting them up for a chance to take a series lead at home in Game 3. The Celtics had a similar letdown against the Heat in the first round but would eventually win the series in five games. Cleveland will attempt to avoid that fate and take control of this matchup Saturday night.
Jarrett Allen continues to be listed as questionable for the Cavaliers as he recovers from a ribs injury. He has missed the last five games. Dean Wade has been upgraded to questionable, suggesting he could make his return Saturday. Ty Jerome and Craig Porter Jr. remain out. Kristaps Porzingis remains out for Boston.
The Celtics are 8-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook with the total sitting at 211. Boston is -345 on the moneyline while Cleveland is +275.
Celtics vs. Cavaliers, 8:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Cavaliers +8
Boston’s film from the second game will show you the team tried to force the three-point shot instead of taking the ball to the basket. There were at least five instances of the Celtics passing up a layup to hoist a three-point shot, something I expect to be corrected in Game 3. Boston shot 8-35 from deep and lost, but this team is too good to be that reliant on the perimeter shot. The main difference between Game 2 against Miami and Game 2 against Cleveland is that the Cavaliers only made 14 triples. They were able to find balance offensively and got good production from the bench after a dismal showing in Game 1.
After the Game 2 setback against the Heat, the Celtics dominated the next three games. However, the Cavaliers are a much better team than the Heat and Boston is still down Porzingis. I think we’re in for a close contest Saturday evening and I’ll lean towards Cleveland covering.
Over/Under: Under 211
Boston is 21-22 to the over as the road side this season while Cleveland is 25-18-1 to the over as the home side. The first two games in this series have gone over this total, despite both being blowouts. I do think we see a more even contest in Game 3 and both teams should make the necessary defensive adjustments to keep this contest under 211.
